A Brief Cold Snap Before Weekend Warmth

The passage of a low pressure system to the east of Winnipeg this morning will usher in cooler air as an Arctic ridge of high pressure builds in across the Prairies. As the ridge builds over Manitoba, temperatures daytime highs will end up falling quite a bit below the seasonal value of –5°C for this time of year, possibly not even breaking the minus double-digits on Thursday. The colder weather will be short-lived, however, as a potentially breezy Saturday holds promise of returning above-seasonal temperatures to the region just in time for the 103rd annual Grey Cup on Sunday.

↓ -7°C / -12°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries
-10°C / -13°C
Partly cloudy and cool
-6°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny

Temperatures will be on a downward slide today as northerly winds to around 30km/h—with gusts up to the 50km/h mark—usher in cooler air and a large ridge of high pressure sourced from the Arctic. There will be some light snow or flurries around this morning, but they’ll be light and should taper through the morning. By supper time, temperatures will have fallen to around –7°C with the northerly winds still blowing. Heading into the overnight period, the winds will start to taper off with the cloud cover breaking up a bit, but there will be plenty of cloud streaming southwards off Lake Manitoba & Winnipeg through the night.

RDPS Surface Pressure Pattern for 12Z Thursday November 26, 2015
By Thursday morning, a large ridge of high pressure will be moving over Southern Manitoba.

Thursday may end up being the coldest day so far this November with temperatures struggling against the Arctic air entrenched over the region. Temperatures will climb to around –10°C by the afternoon with winds out of the north to around 20km/h. Skies will be partly cloudy thanks to a continued stream of cloud cover coming off of the lakes, in particular Lake Winnipeg. If you find yourself underneath any of the lake cloud, you’ll likely see some snow, however it looks fairly light and probably won’t accumulate much. Temperatures will dip to only about –13°C on Thursday night as slightly warmer air begins moving in as the ridge slumps to our south.

Seasonal weather will return to Winnipeg on Friday with mainly sunny skies and a high near –6°C. Winds will be fairly light. Temperatures will fall to around –9 or –10°C on Friday night with winds picking up out of the south.

Looking Towards the Grey Cup

The story for this weekend will be warmer weather returning to Southern Manitoba. On Saturday, gusty westerly winds will bring daytime highs approaching –2 or –3°C.

Grey Cup Sunday is a bit of a trickier forecast at this point, but the best guess I have this far out is that temperatures will likely be seasonal with a high somewhere near –6°C or so and light winds. By the time the football game starts, temperatures will probably be somewhere near the –10°C mark, so bundle up!

More Snow on the Way

More snow is on the way this week, probably not what you were hoping to hear (at least most of you).

1°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy with flurries
0°C / -1°C
Periods of snow beginning
-1°C / -12°C
Clearing. Windy.


Today will feature mainly cloudy skies and more snow! There will be a chance of flurries throughout the day as we remain under a cloud deck with some low-level instability. Accumulations of new snow aren’t expected to be large, but will not be welcome by most nonetheless. Luckily, temperatures will remain near 0C, allowing snow to easily melt off treated surfaces. Winds will also be relatively light, preventing the white-out conditions we experienced last week.


We’ll likely see a break from the snow on Tuesday morning, but more is on the way later on Tuesday. A stronger low pressure system will be pushing into southern Manitoba from the west, bringing more accumulating snow by later on Tuesday.

RDPS 12hr. QPF valid 06Z Wednesday November 25, 2015
A large swath of snow is expected to move through southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

At this point accumulations looks to be around 5ish centimetres, but that number may go up or down depending on the eventual track of the system. Winds will be easterly at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h, leading to blowing and drifting snow out on the highways. However, temperatures will still be hovering near 0C, again helping to prevent ice from forming on treated roadways.


Snow will taper off on Wednesday morning, followed be clearing skies through the day. Unfortunately, a cold front will push through southern Manitoba on Wednesday morning, ushering in gusty north winds and a chillier air mass. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, allowing for more blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will fall throughout the day as this colder air mass floods in, with temperatures dropping to the minus double digits by evening.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to show generally above-seasonal weather for southern Manitoba as we push further toward winter (remember it’s not technically “winter” yet). This November is running 6.4C above normal, although that is going to change with the colder pattern that we’re currently in. Unfortunately, we live in Manitoba, so even “warm” winter weather is never really that warm, but hopefully we’ll avoid the extreme cold that has plagued us frequently the last few winters.

Winter Settles In

After the blustery entrance of winter that saw the first substantial snowfall of 2015 in the Red River Valley alongside winds gusting anywhere from 70 to 90 km/h, significantly cooler weather will settle over the region for the coming days. There good news is that temperatures won’t be too far from seasonal for this time of year, despite being nearly 15°C colder than they were earlier this week.

-5°C / -11°C
Mainly cloudy wiht a chance of scattered flurries
-6°C / -10°C
Mixed skies
0°C / -3°C
Increasing cloud with late day snow

Mainly cloudy skies will persist through the Red River Valley today with northwesterly winds of 20–30 km/h with gusts up to around 45–50 km/h. The snow we’ve seen the past couple days is over, but a couple light flurries can’t be ruled out through the day; that said, it wouldn’t be much that will accumulate. The only threat of accumulating snow will come as the winds align and lake-effect snow develops off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg. Who will see the snow will depend on exactly what the wind direction is, and at the time it looks like Winnipeg may see a bit of snow from these features. Daytime highs will be slightly below the seasonal normal of –3°C, topping out at –5°C or so.

RDPS 12hr. Precipitation Accumulations
The RDPS precipitation totals for today clearly show the two bands of lake-effect snow off of lake Winnipeg & Lake Manitoba.

The clouds will start breaking up tonight as we head towards a low of –12 to –15°C.

Saturday brings less wind, a little less cloud, but more cold. Mixed skies will preside over a day that sees temperatures climbing to –6°C or so and calm winds. The cooler, calmer weather is thanks to a ridge of high pressure that will be sliding through the area. Despite the cooler weather, the lack of significant winds and a bit of sunshine may end up making Saturday a relatively pleasant day overall. Expect a low near –12°C under partly cloudy skies on Saturday night.

GDPS 12hr. Precipitation Accumulation valid midday Sunday through Sunday evening.
The GDPS is showing a large area of snow pushing through Manitoba on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Sunday’s weather will be largely influenced by the approach of the next low pressure system to impact Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Starting fairly early in the morning, winds will begin picking up out of the south and will strengthen to around 30–40 km/h by midday.[1] Cloud cover will push in from the northwest while temperatures climb close to the freezing mark. By later in the afternoon, it appears that there will be a fairly good chance that the Red River Valley will see an area of snow push through, possibly dropping another couple cm over the region.

  1. At this point, winds of 30–40 km/h seem reasonable, however if a little more cold air damming occurs in the Red River Valley, which will dependent on the exact track and strength of the ridge of high pressure moving through on Saturday, then stronger winds of 40–50 km/h could possibly develop. We’ll keep an eye on it as the weekend progresses.  ↩
Game of Thrones — The Wall

Winter Arrives

Environment Canada made headlines with the special weather statement for Winnipeg issued Monday with a referential start: winter is coming. And how.

5°C / -3°C
Light rain beginning in the afternoon, changing to snow in the evening
→ -4°C / -6°C
Mainly snowing. Windy. Miserable.
-4°C / -10°C
Mainly cloudy

Today will mark the beginning of a harsh slide into winter after a essentially a month of temperatures well above seasonal for this time of year. The change in the pattern will be brought courtesy a rather peculiar weather setup that will see a relatively weak Colorado Low moving north through Minnesota into Northwestern Ontario merge together with an Alberta Clipper quickly moving eastwards across the Prairies. Each system is moderately potent in their own right, but when combined, they will form a new storm system that will rapidly intensify, driving strong northwesterly winds through the province alongside the first significant snowfall for many regions of Southern Manitoba.

Today will start deceptively. Relatively light winds and temperatures climbing towards 5 or 6°C will give a false sense of security betrayed only by the increasing cloud cover that will build in through mid-day into the afternoon. Some light rain will develop over the Red River Valley this afternoon, which will mark the end of our above-seasonal temperature streak and usher in winter. As the rain moves into the region, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 50km/h sustained with gusts as high as 70–80km/h. The rain will switch over to snow sometime in the evening and likely begin piling up fairly quickly as the strong winds rapidly cool the ground and other surfaces.

The strong winds and snow will persist through tonight as temperatures dip down towards –3°C or so as colder air begins filtering into the region. With snow piling up and such strong winds in place over the Red River Valley, it’s quite likely that driving conditions become quite poor as roads freeze, become ice covered, and see reduced visibility in blowing snow.

AWM Snowfall Forecast issued November 18, 2015
AWM Snowfall Outlook issued November 18, 2015

Thursday will continue to bring light snow and strong winds to the region as temperatures remain around –4°C or so. The winds will be a bit lighter than at their peak, but will likely remain near the 40 gusting 60km/h mark through much of the day before beginning to taper off in the evening. Overnight, other than some lake-effect snow streaming southeastwards off of Lake Winnipeg, there’s likely to be just a few flurries lingering in the region. Temperatures will dip down to –6°C for the overnight low.

In general, around 5–10cm of snow is likely to fall with this system through southeastern Manitoba, the Red River Valley and northwestwards into Parkland Manitoba. Exact amounts will depend on the timing of the change-over from rain to snow and how quickly the snow begins accumulating instead of melting on the ground.

Friday will be a mainly cloudy day with just a very slight chance of light, scattered flurries. Temperatures will recover only a degree or two from the overnight low with highs around –4°C. There may be a few clear breaks through the Red River Valley on Friday night, but overall there will still be a fair amount of cloud as temperatures head towards an overnight low near –10 or –11°C.

Colder Weather Continues Through The Weekend

The cooler weather, which while a significant drop from what we’ve been experiencing is, in actuality, just a couple degrees below seasonal values for this time of year, will persist through the weekend.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid for November 25 to December 2, issued 12Z November 17, 2015
The NAEFS is showing a trend towards seasonal temperatures for the remainder of November.

Daytime highs around –5 or –6°C will be in place over Winnipeg & the Red River Valley this weekend, with a chance of some more flurries on Saturday improving to sunnier fare on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the low minus single digits. So, while it may be a huge change from the weather we’ve been having, we’ll be shifting to more seasonal weather for the end of November.