A Weather Moment

Forecasts, Facts and News for Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba

October Starts By Heading into Chilly Weather

Posted by buffaloseven on October 1, 2014

Pocket

Temperatures will be on the slide as a low pressure system bringing unsettled weather today draws in cooler air behind it, plunging southern Manitoba into yet another spell of unseasonably cool weather.

Wednesday
17°C / 10°C
Cloudy with a few showers
Thursday
16°C / 5°C
Mainly sunny, showers likely in the evening
Friday
10°C / 1°C
A few sunny breaks, otherwise mainly cloudy with light showers

Wednesday

Today will be a mainly cloudy day here in Winnipeg with rather pleasant temperatures – highs will be around 16 or 17°C – alongside a brisk southerly wind to 30–40km/h. The warmer temperatures are thanks to a strongly wound-up low pressure system lifting northwards near the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border. It will spread an area of rain through Manitoba, but the bulk of it should be isolated along the main deformation axis of the system, sliding northwards through SW Manitoba and Parkland Manitoba into the northern half of the province. Scattered showers will likely be seen through the Red River Valley, but it doesn’t seem like much organized precipitation will develop; as such, rainfall amounts should remain fairly low over the region.

Total precipitation forecast by the RDPS from 7AM to 7PM today.
Total precipitation forecast by the RDPS from 7AM to 7PM today.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy this evening with a chance for some shower activity continuing until around the middle of the night. Clearing will begin afterwards as we head to a low of around 5°C.

Thursday

Thursday will actually be quite a pleasant day; most of the cloud cover should be off to our east leaving us with quite a bit of sunshine through the day as we head to a high once again around 16°C. By late afternoon, though, skies should begin to cloud up in advance of a potent shortwave barreling down in the northwesterly flow behind today’s system. Showers will develop under the shortwave as it progresses southeastwards with much of the Red River Valley seeing some amount of rainfall before 9PM or so. There is a slight chance of seeing some lightning or small hail in some of the shower activity if it manages to develop intensely enough.

A simulated RADAR image from the NAM depicting the potent shortwave moving through on Thursday.
A simulated RADAR image from the NAM depicting the potent shortwave moving through on Thursday.

A brief reprieve will be in store for the middle of the night, but more shower activity is expected to move through later overnight into Friday morning on the back-side of the shortwave. The temperature will dip to around 5°C.

Friday

Friday will start off cloudy with a few remnant showers from the shortwave pulling off to the east. The shower activity should move off relatively quickly, but there’s a slight chance things will linger a little longer if the shortwave stalls out over SE Manitoba. Afterwards we’ll be entrenched in a northwesterly flow with Arctic air spilling southwards into the province. Our temperature will top out around 10°C with some lake-effect drizzle/showers likely in the lee of the lakes.[1]

The Arctic air mass moving in will be the coldest air mass of the season so far in Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will drop to 0–2°C on Friday night under mainly clear skies and a brisk northwesterly wind. Some areas will see cloud streaming off of the lakes, again though where that cloud goes will depend exactly on which way the wind blows.

Cool Weekend Ahead

This weekend will be a cool one as cold Arctic air entrenches itself over the province. Daytime highs will sit in the low teens with overnight lows in the low single digits, perhaps even dipping just below 0°C. Sunday may bring the chance for some shower activity pushing in from the east, but things look rather uncertain at this point.


  1. The wind direction makes it look unlikely that the lake-effect activity will push into Winnipeg; keep in mind that which areas see lake-effect precipitation is extremely sensitive to wind direction.  ↩

Fall-like Weather Returns

Posted by steinbachweather on September 29, 2014

Pocket

After a week of summer-like weather, conditions will return to reality. More fall-like temperatures are expected this week along with some rain.

Cool conditions will dominate our weather on Monday
Cool conditions will dominate our weather on Monday

Monday

Monday
12°C / 8°C
Mainly cloudy

Today will be mainly cloudy with a chance of an isolated shower or drizzle. Low-level moisture under a strong ridge of high pressure will be responsible for the cloud. We may see some clearing late in the day, but that won’t change the day’s expected temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the low teens, with a light easterly to south-easterly wind.

Tuesday

Tuesday
16°C / 10°C
Mainly cloudy

Tuesday will remain on the cool side, with temperatures in the low to mid teens. Despite the fact that these temperatures may seem cool, especially compared to last week, they are actually near normal for this time of year. Our next chance for rain will begin on Tuesday night as a compact, but intense, low pressure system spreads rain over southern Manitoba.

Wednesday

Wednesday
18°C / 8°C
Periods of rain

The aforementioned low pressure system will be the dominant weather feature on Wednesday. It is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall to southern Manitoba for most of Wednesday. It is too early to predict how much rain will fall, but at this point 5-10 mm looks most probable.

Long Range

The long range forecast looks very fall-like. Current modelling suggests we will see normal to below-normal weather as we move into October. That means temperatures in the low teens, plus or minus a few degrees.

Mild Weather Moderating; Rain Returns Sunday

Posted by buffaloseven on September 26, 2014

Pocket

Temperatures will remain well above normal for two more days before seasonal air begins pushing back into the province through the weekend as a cold front gradually progresses southeastwards. A chance for showers returns to southern Manitoba on Sunday as a disturbance developing in North Dakota causes the cold front to stall out over our area.

Friday
28°C / 16°C
Fog patches in the morning, then hot and humid
Saturday
26°C / 12°C
Chance of morning fog, then mainly sunny and warm
Sunday
⇘ 10°C / 6°C
Cloudy with rain likely

First the good news: after we burn off a little fog that developed overnight, today will be another beautiful, summer-like day with highs in the upper 20’s and surprisingly humid conditions for late September. Strong southerly winds at 40–50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h will be tapping into a pool of moisture in the Northern Plains and drawing it northwards. Dewpoint values will sit near 17–19°C through much of the southern portions of the province.

Today will bring abnormally high late-September humidity to Southern Mantioba.
Today will bring abnormally high late-September humidity to Southern Mantioba.

Yesterday I erroneously tweeted that our dewpoint of 17.6°C broke the previous record of 16.8°C set in 2008 and that it had been the latest on record[1] such high humidity had been seen in Winnipeg. Rob’s Obs did a little digging and found that the actual record is still held by October 8, 1997 when the dewpoint climbed to 18.6°C. Whoops. I apologize for missing that.

That being said, today will give that record a run for its money; multiple models forecast our dewpoint to climb to 19°C, which if it happens would be the latest 19°C dewpoint on record.

Saturday will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg with a high in the mid–20’s and more comfortable humidity as a cold front gradually approaching begins flushing out some of the moisture in the region. There’s a chance of fog again in the morning and we may see a few clouds around, but the bulk of the day should be mainly sunny. Winds don’t look to be an issue.

This simulated RADAR image from the NAM shows a band of rain stretching across Southern Mantioba on Sunday afternoon.
This simulated RADAR image from the NAM shows a band of rain stretching across Southern Mantioba on Sunday afternoon.

Things change on Sunday as the cold front that was approaching on Saturday stalls out as a disturbance in North Dakota develops. A band of rain is expected to develop along the stalled out front, spreading from SW Manitoba eastwards through the afternoon until a band of rain stretches across the whole province. Temperatures will start off cool and only drop from there as the rain cools things off a little further and northerly winds at 20–30km/h continue to tap cooler air and bring it into the region. The rain should taper off late in the evening here in Winnipeg with anywhere from 5–15mm falling depending on the exact timing and speed of the system. Temperatures will dip down to around 6°C.

Unsettled Week Ahead Leading to A Cold Snap

Long-range forecasts don’t look particularly great. The first couple days of the week look seasonal temperature-wise. A series of Colorado Lows look to develop mid-to-late week which will bring a chance for showers, but more significantly, begin drawing down much cooler air from the Arctic. The end of the week looks like it will end with an Arctic outbreak bringing another shot of below-normal temperatures and brisk northwesterly winds.


  1. Records for seasonal dewpoint values go start in 1953.  ↩

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