A Weather Moment

Forecasts, Facts and News for Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba

Fall-like Weather Returns

Posted by steinbachweather on September 29, 2014

Pocket

After a week of summer-like weather, conditions will return to reality. More fall-like temperatures are expected this week along with some rain.

Cool conditions will dominate our weather on Monday
Cool conditions will dominate our weather on Monday

Monday

Monday
12°C / 8°C
Mainly cloudy

Today will be mainly cloudy with a chance of an isolated shower or drizzle. Low-level moisture under a strong ridge of high pressure will be responsible for the cloud. We may see some clearing late in the day, but that won’t change the day’s expected temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the low teens, with a light easterly to south-easterly wind.

Tuesday

Tuesday
16°C / 10°C
Mainly cloudy

Tuesday will remain on the cool side, with temperatures in the low to mid teens. Despite the fact that these temperatures may seem cool, especially compared to last week, they are actually near normal for this time of year. Our next chance for rain will begin on Tuesday night as a compact, but intense, low pressure system spreads rain over southern Manitoba.

Wednesday

Wednesday
18°C / 8°C
Periods of rain

The aforementioned low pressure system will be the dominant weather feature on Wednesday. It is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall to southern Manitoba for most of Wednesday. It is too early to predict how much rain will fall, but at this point 5-10 mm looks most probable.

Long Range

The long range forecast looks very fall-like. Current modelling suggests we will see normal to below-normal weather as we move into October. That means temperatures in the low teens, plus or minus a few degrees.

Mild Weather Moderating; Rain Returns Sunday

Posted by buffaloseven on September 26, 2014

Pocket

Temperatures will remain well above normal for two more days before seasonal air begins pushing back into the province through the weekend as a cold front gradually progresses southeastwards. A chance for showers returns to southern Manitoba on Sunday as a disturbance developing in North Dakota causes the cold front to stall out over our area.

Friday
28°C / 16°C
Fog patches in the morning, then hot and humid
Saturday
26°C / 12°C
Chance of morning fog, then mainly sunny and warm
Sunday
⇘ 10°C / 6°C
Cloudy with rain likely

First the good news: after we burn off a little fog that developed overnight, today will be another beautiful, summer-like day with highs in the upper 20’s and surprisingly humid conditions for late September. Strong southerly winds at 40–50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h will be tapping into a pool of moisture in the Northern Plains and drawing it northwards. Dewpoint values will sit near 17–19°C through much of the southern portions of the province.

Today will bring abnormally high late-September humidity to Southern Mantioba.
Today will bring abnormally high late-September humidity to Southern Mantioba.

Yesterday I erroneously tweeted that our dewpoint of 17.6°C broke the previous record of 16.8°C set in 2008 and that it had been the latest on record[1] such high humidity had been seen in Winnipeg. Rob’s Obs did a little digging and found that the actual record is still held by October 8, 1997 when the dewpoint climbed to 18.6°C. Whoops. I apologize for missing that.

That being said, today will give that record a run for its money; multiple models forecast our dewpoint to climb to 19°C, which if it happens would be the latest 19°C dewpoint on record.

Saturday will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg with a high in the mid–20’s and more comfortable humidity as a cold front gradually approaching begins flushing out some of the moisture in the region. There’s a chance of fog again in the morning and we may see a few clouds around, but the bulk of the day should be mainly sunny. Winds don’t look to be an issue.

This simulated RADAR image from the NAM shows a band of rain stretching across Southern Mantioba on Sunday afternoon.
This simulated RADAR image from the NAM shows a band of rain stretching across Southern Mantioba on Sunday afternoon.

Things change on Sunday as the cold front that was approaching on Saturday stalls out as a disturbance in North Dakota develops. A band of rain is expected to develop along the stalled out front, spreading from SW Manitoba eastwards through the afternoon until a band of rain stretches across the whole province. Temperatures will start off cool and only drop from there as the rain cools things off a little further and northerly winds at 20–30km/h continue to tap cooler air and bring it into the region. The rain should taper off late in the evening here in Winnipeg with anywhere from 5–15mm falling depending on the exact timing and speed of the system. Temperatures will dip down to around 6°C.

Unsettled Week Ahead Leading to A Cold Snap

Long-range forecasts don’t look particularly great. The first couple days of the week look seasonal temperature-wise. A series of Colorado Lows look to develop mid-to-late week which will bring a chance for showers, but more significantly, begin drawing down much cooler air from the Arctic. The end of the week looks like it will end with an Arctic outbreak bringing another shot of below-normal temperatures and brisk northwesterly winds.


  1. Records for seasonal dewpoint values go start in 1953.  ↩

Fall Starts By Putting Summer to Shame

Posted by buffaloseven on September 24, 2014

Pocket

The first week of fall[1] will start off with weather that will seemingly put this summer to shame. Very warm weather is on the way with potentially record-breaking highs across Southern Manitoba on Thursday!

Wednesday
25°C / 14°C
Cloudy; clearing for a sunny afternoon
Thursday
31°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny; increasing humidity
Friday
30°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny & hot

A prominent upper-level ridge in place over the Prairies has pushed the polar jet stream far northwards and allowed warm air to spread into the Southern Prairies from the United States. As a result, significantly warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the week in Winnipeg.

Today will start off fairly cloudy thanks to some stratus cloud that spread northwards ahead of a dissipating trough of low pressure. The cloud should clear out for the afternoon and we’ll see temperatures climb to around 24 or 25°C. The temperature will dip to around 14°C tonight under mainly clear skies.

Thursday and Friday will both bring highs just at or over the 30°C mark under mainly sunny skies. South to southeasterly winds will begin tapping into some moisture from the Central Plains of the US and we’ll see the humidity gradually rise for the latter half of the week. Dewpoint values will climb into the mid-to-upper teens, which when combined with highs near 30°C, it will feel more like the mid-to-upper 30’s. The overnight lows both nights will be in the mid-teens.

Record-Breaking Potential

We have a slight chance of breaking daily record high temperatures on both Thursday and Friday. For Thursday, September 25th the daily record high temperature is 31.1°C set in 1950. For Friday, September 26th the daily record high temperature is 31.7°C set in 1957. Both days will see temperatures climbing to or just above the 30°C mark, and if maximum heating is realized, we may get the bump we need to break one of these records!

Date High Temperature (2014) Record High
September 25 27.7°C 31.1°C (1950)
September 26 30°C (Forecast) 31.7°C (1952)

Cooler Weekend

The weekend is looking great, despite a cool-down that’s in store. Daytime highs will dip around 5°C or so for the weekend with both days seeing highs in the mid–20’s. Fortunately this still puts us around 8°C above normal for the time of year, so there will be little to complain about. We’ll likely see a bit more cloud that we do through the second half of the week, but all in all it will be a gorgeous weekend!


  1. …sort of. Meteorological fall started at the beginning of September, but fall as most people consider it began on September 22nd after the autumnal equinox.  ↩

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