A breakdown in the upper-level ridge over Western North America that has locked Manitoba into an unseasonably cold regime for the past 10 days will result in a significant shift in the weather for the coming weekend as warmer air finally makes its way inland from the Pacific coast. The weekend is set to end with a bang as a low pressure system taps into the warmer air and brings the first major widespread snowfall event to the Prairies.
Today will be one of those slightly unpleasant transition days into a warmer air mass being brought into the region by a low pressure system tracking across the Central Prairies. Southerly winds to 30-40km/h with gusts up to around 50km/h will make things feel a bit chilly, even though we see a warmer-than-anything-recently high near -3°C or so. If the winds manage to shift more southwesterly, then we could see several degrees added onto that high, jumping up to 0 or +1°C, however the deep layer of cold air and outflow from the ridge to our southeast will likely keep things on the cooler side.
There will be a slight chance of flurries late this afternoon into early this evening as the warm front passes by. Otherwise tonight will see mostly cloudy skies as temperatures drop to around -5°C.
Saturday looks like a fairly quiet day. Mostly cloudy skies, light winds and a high near -1°C will make for a fairly pleasant day. Temperatures will drop to around -4°C under cloudy skies and increasing east-southeasterly winds.
Sunday Brings Major Snowfall to Portions of Southern Manitoba
An updated snowfall forecast and look at this weekend’s snow is available in the comments below.
A low pressure system tracking along the International border is set to bring a substantial snowfall to portions of the Parkland & Interlake regions as a weak inverted trough persists through the region for much of the day. Snow is expected to push into Western Manitoba late Saturday and spread eastwards into the Interlake and onwards across the lakes into eastern Manitoba by Sunday morning.
Snowfall will be fairly heavy at times, and in general amounts will likely fall into the 10-15cm amount for a large swath from Dauphin to The Pas extending eastwards. For portions of the Swan River region eastwards through the northern Interlake and into Berens River, slightly higher amounts will likely be seen with up to 20cm possible.
Further south in the Red River Valley, some light snow is likely, however there’s some considerable uncertainty in how the evolution of this system will take place which is resulting in quite a spread of results. The general consensus at the moment is that little snow will be seen with amounts generally less than 2cm on Sunday, however some guidance suggests that strong low-level instability and strong lift behind the passage of the cold front in the afternoon could result in fairly intense snow over the region.
As we get closer to the event, we’ll be able to refine this forecast a little more, particularly for the Red River Valley.
Other than the snow, Sunday will be fairly mild with a high near 0°C in Winnipeg while winds starting off relatively light out of the east-southeast backing to northwesterly at a gusty 30-40km/h with some blowing snow in rural areas by Sunday evening. Much cooler air will push in through Sunday night which should allow the overnight low to drop into the minus teens.
Next week looks to start off a little unsettled with some flurries hanging on in Southern Manitoba while another shot of Arctic air begins working into the region.
