DECEMBER 2004
THU DEC 30 - WINTER STORM WALLOPS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BROUGHT A VARIETY OF WINTERY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW, ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOW SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA EARLY
THURSDAY AND REACHED THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. A MIXTURE OF ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INCLUDING WINNIPEG BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGED TO HEAVY SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WAS PARTICULARLY HEAVY OVER THE WINNIPEG AREA ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM WHEN UP TO 20 CENTIMETRES OF SNOW
FELL IN A 5 HOUR SPAN. HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FORCED SEVERAL MAJOR ROAD CLOSURES INCLUDING THE TRANSCANADA
HIGHWAY FROM WINNIPEG TO THE SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND HIGHWAY 75 TO THE U.S. BORDER.
SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT INCLUDE..
WINNIPEG AREA..
FT GARRY.............. 31.5 CM
CHARLESWOOD........... 26.0 CM
ST BONIFACE........... 26.0 CM
WINNIPEG NORTH END.... 24.0 CM
TRANSCONA............. 19.5 CM
WINNIPEG AIRPORT...... 18.5 MM /WATER EQUIVALENT/
OTHER LOCATIONS..
STEINBACH............. 17.0 CM
MIAMI................. 18.0 CM
PILOT MOUND........... 13.2 CM
NEEPAWA............... 15.0 CM
BRANDON AIRPORT....... 8.0 CM
RIVERS /NW BRANDON/... 13.4 CM
BINSCARTH............. 23.8 CM
ELPHINSTONE........... 25.0 CM /S OF RIDING MOUNTAIN PARK/
THE FOLLOWING VALUES ARE WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN MM OF SNOW, ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN.
EMERSON............... 16.5 MM
MORDEN................ 25.5 MM
CARMAN................ 19.2 MM
PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE.... 19.3 MM
GIMLI................. 27.0 MM
PINAWA................ 13.7 MM /FRZG RAIN REPORTED/
SPRAGUE............... 19.4 MM /FRZG RAIN REPORTED/
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
Medium Range
Guidance:
* Alternate
Environment Canada Day 3-5 forecast (FOCN12)
* 5 day Max temp anomaly - HPC
* 5
day FM Temperature Guidance - Manitoba
* 10
day MRF loop
* 10
day mean temperature anomaly forecast - Canada (CMC)
* 5 - 10 day mean temperature
forecast - Canada (MRF)
* 5 - 10 day mean
precipitation forecast - Canada (MRF)
* 6-10
day outlook (CPC)
* 8-14
day outlook (CPC)
* AO/NAO/PNA Outlooks (CPC)
* 0-16
day GFS
* 15 day ensemble
loops - 500
mb pattern, 500
mb height anomaly, 850
mb temp anomaly, homepage
* Multi-model ensemble site
* Long
Range Model Comparison (ECMWF/GFS/CMC/NOGAPS)
* ECMWF
3-6 day
* ECMWF progs - Day
3, Day
4, Day
5, Day
6, Day
7
A NOTE ABOUT
ENVIRONMENT CANADA'S DAY 3 to 5 FORECASTS
Since June 2001, the long range forecast (Day 3 to 5) for the
Prairies (including Winnipeg) has been a totally automated computer generated product from Montreal, with no intervention from local human forecasters. This
automated product can often result in major changes from one day to the next,
since the output is purely dependent on model output with no adjustments by a
human forecaster to take model errors or variability into account. Thus, the long range forecasts from
Environment Canada should be used
with caution and it is highly advisable to consult other long range guidance (such as the links above) to give a better idea of temperature
trends and weather expected in the next 3 to 10 days.
OCTOBER 2004
MON OCT 25 - WHAT KIND OF WINTER CAN WE EXPECT?
As October winds down to a close, Manitoba residents are
wondering what kind of winter they can expect over the next few months. After a
wet spring, the coldest summer on record, and a mild wet fall, most residents
are hoping to catch a break this winter with above normal temperatures and
below normal snowfall. And the early consensus is they may get their wish.
Preliminary speculation is that a developing El-Nino phase will bring a milder
and drier than normal winter across Western
Canada and the Prairies. However the mere presence of a El-Nino does not necessarily always translate to a milder
winter for Manitoba. For example, a weak El-Nino event may
restrict milder conditions to the West Coast, with a colder than normal winter
for the eastern Prairies. This
outcome is even more likely if the West Coast ridge is amplified by warmer than
normal ocean temperatures over the Gulf
of Alaska, which
played a key role in producing the abnormally cold spring and summer over the
Prairies this year. A stronger El-Nino phase would favour
a warmer and drier winter for the Prairies more typically associated with El
Nino events. Click here to see the various winter outcomes depending on the
strength of El-Nino. At this point, a weak to moderate El-Nino is being
forecast for the upcoming winter which would favour a
“normal” winter for the Eastern Prairies,
and warmer than normal conditions over the Western Prairies. If
the El-Nino phase becomes stronger than currently forecast, then the odds are
better for a warmer than normal winter across Manitoba. For some
links to various long range winter products, see the Waterloo winter forecast
site for
some helpful information.
Among
some of the more useful links for long range forecasting..
NOAA
Winter Weather Outlook
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Diagnostic Discussion
Most
Recent 2 Months Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Animation
ENSO
Impacts by Region
UK Met Office Predictions
The
above list does not contain any long range products from Environment Canada.
Although Environment Canada does issue long range outlooks, the forecasts are
heavily automated with little human input or analysis. As a result, the long range products are
generally quite poor and exhibit little or no skill in predicting future
weather patterns. The above links offer better insight and more thorough human
analysis that are critical in producing more accurate long range weather
outlooks.
WED OCT 6 - AUGUST IN OCTOBER
After experiencing October-like weather in August, it was only fitting
that Southern
Manitoba see some
August-like weather in October. It was another spectacular day
across southern Manitoba today with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s under sunny blue
skies and a balmy south to southwest breeze. A couple of localities southwest
of Winnipeg even got close to the 30c mark, with Morden
and Carberry both hitting 29C this afternoon. (see stats below)
Amazingly, these temperatures occurred after early morning temperatures
near freezing.. a rise of
almost 30C in one day! Today’s highs were some 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year, and are actually warmer than any temperature
recorded this past August (August max of 26 in Winnipeg). The warm weather is
expected to continue on Thursday before a brief cooldown
for Friday but then warmer weather returns for Thanksgiving weekend. A cold
front moving through on Tuesday is expected to bring a return to colder weather
next week with temperatures at or below the normal high of 13c.
Wednesday’s HIGHS/LOWS over southern Manitoba
SITE HIGH LOW
WINNIPEG INTL ARPT (YWG)...... 25.7 2.0
WINNIPEG FORKS (XWN).......... 26.2 5.6
PORTAGE (YPG)................. 28.1 1.5
BRANDON (YBR) ................ 27.9 0.8
GRETNA (WGN).................. 28.0 1.1
CARMAN (WNK).................. 28.3 1.2
EMERSON (WEX)................. 28.3 0.9
MORDEN (XMD).................. 28.9 3.3
CARBERRY (WZE) ............... 29.1 0.6
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SEPTEMBER 2004
TUE SEP 28 -
STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN COLD START TO OCTOBER
Mild dry weather is providing a fine end to
September over southern Manitoba, but
the weather will make an abrupt change Thursday night as a strong artic cold
front plows through the Prairies from the northwest. This front will usher in
the coldest air of the season so far with daytime highs on Friday struggling to
reach 10 degrees over Southern
Manitoba along
with gusty northwest winds. In addition the air will be cold enough to generate
some local snowflurries, along with lake effect
showers off Lake
Manitoba and Lake
Winnipeg. A hard freeze is possible by Saturday
morning over much of southern Manitoba which
should put an end to this year’s dismal growing season. The cool weather
is expected to last through the weekend before a moderating trend begins next
week.
SUN SEP 19 - LAST WEEKEND OF SUMMER
BRINGS RECORD HEAT TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
Mother Nature waited until
the last weekend of summer to bring the hottest weather of the year over Southern
Manitoba. Temperatures climbed above
the 30 degree mark over much of the Red
River valley and southeastern Manitoba
on Sunday with several record highs set for the date. Winnipeg
climbed to 31.2C beating the former record high for Sept 19th of 30.0C set back
in 1941. The 31.2C was also the
hottest temperature of the entire summer of 2004.. topping the 30.6C reading back on July 18th. It was only Winnipeg's
third 30 degree reading of the year.
Other high temperatures
today included
Portage La Prairie .........
30.0C (tied
record)
Gretna......................
31.9C (record
high)
Carman......................
32.2C
Emerson.....................
33.2C (record
high)
The 33C reading at Emerson
made it the Canadian hot spot today.
See September
19 2004 charts
FRI SEP 17 - SUMMER’S LAST HURRAH???
After a year
without a summer, it looks like Mother Nature will be giving Southern Manitoba a peace offering this weekend with some summerlike weather to
close off the last official weekend of summer. A nice southerly flow of warm
air should boost temperatures up to 26C in Winnipeg on Saturday, and maybe even 27 or 28C on Sunday. Areas near the US border like Emerson may even hit the 30C mark by Sunday. (North Dakota is forecasting highs in the 90s this weekend!) The summerlike
weather comes as "too little too late" for Manitoba farmers and the public in general, but at this point.. we'll take it!
AUGUST 2004
MON AUG 9 - WHERE HAS SUMMER GONE???
It was as miserable a summer day as you could get in
southern Manitoba on
Monday when afternoon temperatures sank to the single digits along with rain,
drizzle and gusty northerly winds. The afternoon temperature in Winnipeg was an
October-like 9C on Monday, a value that was actually 3 degrees below the normal
LOW for August 8th. On average, the
afternoon high in early August is 26C, a reading that has been reached only
once so far this month. As cold as
it was, Monday’s maximum temperature will not go down in the record books
as the coldest August day in Winnipeg. The
high temperature for Monday in Winnipeg was
actually 16.8C, a misleading statistic since that temperature was recorded just
after midnight before
a cold front started coming through. By the time people woke up Monday morning,
the temperature was down to 12c and by afternoon, it had dropped even further
to 9C. (see
daily
summary) This
would have been the coldest daytime high ever recorded in Winnipeg in
August, which currently stands at 11.7C.
The
reason for the cold weather Monday was an unseasonably strong low pressure
system that intensified over Lake
of the Woods and
brought cold northerly winds and rain to southern Manitoba. But
this has been the rule rather than the exception this year over southern Manitoba which
has seen a mere 3 to 4 weeks of summerlike weather. The bizarre weather has
many people questioning just what is the reason for this frustrating weather
over southern Manitoba this year? The
culprit is a persistent pool of cold air over Hudson
Bay known as the Hudson Bay vortex. This
cool airmass generally results in a northwest flow of cool air to persist over
the eastern Prairies, sometimes for several weeks at a time. Normally, this Hudson
Bay vortex weakens with the onset of spring, which
allows warmer air from the Pacific or United
States to
spread across the eastern Prairies. However this year, the vortex has been
stubbornly persistent, continuing to redevelop week after week instead of
fading away. In the meantime, a
large ridge of high pressure off the West Coast is giving sunny and warm
weather to the far west, with well above normal temperatures in Alaska, B.C.
and the Yukon. The reason for this
persistent weather pattern is unknown.. but its effects are taking their toll on agriculture and
people’s spirits across the eastern Prairies. Seeding and crop development are well
behind schedule in southern Manitoba due to
the cool temperatures. People are beginning to wonder if there will ever be a
summer this year. This is in sharp contrast to last year which featured one of
the finest summers in many years over southern Manitoba
including the second hottest August on record when temperatures were near or
above 30C for most of the month. Warm weather, minimal rainfall and virtually
no mosquitoes combined to make ideal conditions for outdoor activities well
into the beginning of September, as well as one of the best agricultural
harvests in years.
JUN 2004
WED JUN 23 - UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HITS SOUTHERN MANITOBA - WARMER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEK?
An unseasonably cool airmass has moved into Southern
Manitoba giving
conditions more typical of October than late June. High temperatures only managed to reach
13C in Winnipeg,
normal for the first week of October, but over 10 degrees below the normal high
of 25C for the end of June. The cool airmass led to the development of numerous
showers and small topped CBs that gave gusty winds and small hail in some
locations. Clearing
skies and diminishing winds will lead to the possibility of frost by Thursday
morning. The below normal
temperatures will continue for the next couple of days but long range guidance
is finally indicating a return to more summerlike conditions over southern
Manitoba by early next week. A
ridge of high pressure over the west coast will slowly move east through the
upcoming weekend, bringing a gradual buildup of warm air from the west over the
Prairies. This warm air should move
into Manitoba by
Monday and continue through much of next week, allowing temperatures to finally
climb into the mid to upper 20s for the first time since early June.
SUN JUN 20 - SOUTHERN MANITOBA STILL WAITING FOR SUMMER
Summer officially begins today but you won’t
see many believers in Southern
Manitoba as
warm weather continues to elude its arrival in the eastern Prairies. It has been a painfully slow start to
the growing season over Southern
Manitoba this
year. In the 75 days since since April 7th, there
have been only 11 days above normal in Winnipeg, or
about 1 day in 7. Other than a one
week spell of warm weather in the first week of June, temperatures have been
consistently below normal for the past 10 consecutive weeks. And this week looks like more of the
same as another spell of unseasonably cool air develops over southern Manitoba. High
temperatures for the upcoming week will only be in the mid teens,
or about 10 degrees below normal for the end of June. Long range guidance suggest that below
normal temperatures will likely linger over southern Manitoba right into the
end of the month, a depressing thought given the miserable weather Manitobans
had to suffer through May.
Meanwhile, the Yukon
Territory
continues to bake in summerlike heat with Whitehorse
reaching into the low thirties this weekend.
The
bizarre weather has many people questioning just what is the reason for this
frustrating weather over southern Manitoba? The
culprit is a persistent pool of cold air over Hudson
Bay known as the Hudson Bay vortex. This
cool airmass generally results in a northwest flow of cool air to persist over
the eastern Prairies, sometimes for several weeks at a time. Normally, this Hudson
Bay vortex weakens with the onset of spring, which allows
warmer air from the Pacific or United
States to
spread across the eastern Prairies. However this year, the vortex has been
stubbornly persistent, continuing to redevelop week after week instead of
fading away. In the meantime, a
large ridge of high pressure off the West Coast is giving sunny and warm
weather to the far west, with well above normal temperatures in Alaska, B.C.
and the Yukon. The reason for this
persistent and unseasonal weather pattern is unknown.. but its effects are taking their
toll on agriculture and people’s spirits across the eastern
Prairies. Seeding and crop
development are well behind schedule in southern Manitoba due to
the cool temperatures and above normal rainfall. People are beginning to wonder
if there will even be a summer this year. This is in sharp contrast to last
year which featured one of the finest summers in many years over southern Manitoba. Warm weather, minimal rainfall and
virtually no mosquitoes combined to make ideal conditions for outdoor
activities well into the beginning of September, as well as one of the best
agricultural harvests in years. Consider these statistics comparing this year
and last year for the period of April 1st to June 20th..
April 1st - June 20th
2003
2004
# of days 20C or more...... 40 19
# of days 25C or more...... 15 5
total rainfall .............
147 mm 218 mm
NOTE: Statistics from Rob’s Obs
One can
only hope that Mother Nature atones for this slow start to summer with an
extended period of warm and dry weather for July and August into the fall.
MAY 2004
SUN MAY 30 - MISERABLE MAY
ENDING ON SOGGY NOTE
One
of the coolest and wettest Mays on record will be ending on a fitting note.. wet and dreary over Southern Manitoba. A large slow moving area of low pressure over the
Northern Plains will maintain a moist southeast flow over Southern Manitoba through Monday with periods of rain and isolated
thunderstorms. Another 25 to 50 mm of rain is possible over the Red River valley and southern Manitoba this weekend into Monday adding to the already
inflated precipitation total this month. At my location, another 26 mm of rain
has fallen from late Saturday up to 7 am this morning.. with a monthly total now at 120 mm and climbing. Normal May
precipitation is about 60 mm. The month has been especially wet the past 3
weeks which has featured several significant rainfalls and a record late season
snowstorm on May 11-12th. The
wettest May on record in Winnipeg is 177.7 mm in May 1977, but in contrast to this
year, that month was also the warmest May on record. This month has been anything but warm.
Up to the 27th, the mean monthly temperature has been 7C in Winnipeg.. some 5 degrees below the normal May average of 12C and one
of the top 10 coolest Mays on record. There have been only 5 days this month
where the temperature has hit the 20C mark.. normal is at least 14. The
cool wet weather this month has put a serious delay in the growing season with
soil temperatures struggling to rise for crop planting. Gardeners are frustrated with the wet
and cool conditions and wonder if they’ll ever get to plant their flower
and vegetable gardens before it’s too late.
Trees are budding at least 2 weeks later than last year with many trees just
starting to get leaves at the end of May. Compare this to last year which saw
lots of sunshine and warm temperatures from April on leading to one of the best
harvests ever in Southern Manitoba.
In addition the cool wet weather has played havoc with outdoor activities and
is also leading to large areas of standing water that will make mosquito
control especially difficult this year.
Long range guidance is
finally hinting at a possible break in the cool wet weather pattern by the end
of the week.. which hopefully
will signal the beginning of a warm dry June.
SAT MAY 15 - HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS CAP WILD WEEK OF WEATHER IN WINNIPEG
It was a wild week of
weather over Winnipeg
and southern Manitoba
this week as Mother Nature showed the true meaning of variability. The week began with a sunny summerlike
high of 26C in Winnipeg
on Sunday May 9th, Mother's Day, the warmest spot in the country that day. Two
days later, the worst May snowstorm on record hammered southern Manitoba
for 2 days on the 11th and 12th with heavy snow, ice pellets and freezing rain.
The storm left 20 to 25 cm of snow in Winnipeg,
with 35 cm in Brandon
leading to a 2 day shutdown of the TransCanada highway from Winnipeg
to the Saskatchewan
border - an unprecedented occurrence in May. Finally on Saturday the 15th, heavy
thunderstorms in the evening moved across the Winnipeg
area giving frequent lightning, hail and torrential rain. At my location, 14.7
mm of rain fell between 8:30
and 10:30
pm, with a peak rainfall
intensity of 93.7 mm/hr at 8:52
pm. All in all, a memorable week of wild
weather in Southern Manitoba
that featured some of the most variable and extreme May weather in years.
SAT MAY 15 -
SNOW COVER DISAPPEARS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY, SNOW STILL ON GROUND WEST
Sunny skies, brisk southerly winds and mid-teen
temperatures today quickly melted the remaining snowpack
from this week’s record snowfall over Winnipeg and
the Red River
valley. However snow still remains west of Winnipeg from Portage to Brandon south
to the American border as shown from a May
15 satellite photo taken
this afternoon. This is the area which saw the most snow from the midweek
snowstorm with 2 consecutive days of heavy snowfall, compared to one day of
heavy snow further east. Tuesday saw an east-west band of heavy snow across
southern Manitoba with about 20 to 25 cm recorded in most places (less snow far
south and southeast where snow turned to rain or ice pellets - see May
14 satellite photo to
show extent of snow cover) On Wednesday the 12th, a second
area of heavy snow developed mainly west of Winnipeg, giving another 10 to 20
cm from Portage west to the Saskatchewan border. Hence, areas west of Winnipeg saw 30
to 40 cm over the 2 day period of the storm. Brandon for example saw 19.8 cm of snow
on Tuesday the 11th, with another 14.4 cm on the 12th giving a 2 day total of
34 cm. This left at least 25 cm of snow on the ground in Brandon, the deepest
snow cover ever recorded there in May. As of this morning, snowcover there was
still 15 cm deep. The
snowcover has also led to some record cold nights over the Brandon area, with
temperatures falling to a record low -12C on the 14th, the coldest spot in
Manitoba.
WED MAY 12 -
WILL SPRING EVER ARRIVE?
Those looking for a quick
return to warmer weather over Southern
Manitoba are going to be disappointed
as long range guidance continues to show below normal temperatures for the
foreseeable future. In fact, there is nothing to suggest a break in the below
normal weather pattern right into the end of May. There may be some brief warmups over the next couple of weeks, but there is no
indication of a major change in the overall pattern to give southern Manitoba
an extended period of warmth. Of
course, the models could be wrong, as they are not very good at indicating a
major switch in the weather pattern in the long range. Let's hope they are..
the weather since early April has been disappointing
over Manitoba
with generally cool and windy conditions. The final straw was a record May
snowstorm on May 11-12th that pounded southern Manitoba
with 2 days of heavy snow and ice pellets.
In the shorter term, dry
weather is expected Friday but snowcover will keep temperatures well below
normal with afternoon highs of only 6 degrees. Thus, snowmelt will be gradual. On
Saturday a disturbance coming in from the northwest will bring a threat of
showers to southern Manitoba
late Saturday that may even change to.. get ready.. some wet snow Saturday
night into Sunday morning with a coating of wet snow possible. This will maintain cool conditions
on Sunday before a gradual warmup begins Monday and
Tuesday with temperatures slowly getting back into the double digits. By later
next week however, guidance is indicating a return to cooler weather through
the following weekend.
The cold weather and snow
has put a serious delay in the growing season. Soil temperatures are struggling to rise
for crop planting. Gardeners are
frustrated with the snowcover and cold temperatures and wonder if they’ll
ever get to plant their flower and vegetable gardens. Trees are budding much
slower than last year. Compare this to last year which saw lots of sunshine and
warm temperatures from April on leading to one of the best harvests ever in Southern
Manitoba. Just another example of how variable the
weather can be out here in the Prairies.
TUE/WED MAY 11-12 - RECORD LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM
WALLOPS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA
A
powerful late season storm brought heavy
snow to much of Southern
Manitoba on
Tuesday along with some local thundersnow in some localities. Snow began in Winnipeg around
7 am, and
by noon at
least 10 cm of heavy wet snow had coated the city. At my location in Charleswood, I
measured 20 cm of snow by Tuesday evening before snow began to change into ice
pellets and rain. (see photo) General snowfalls of 20 to 25 cm were reported
throughout Winnipeg on
Tuesday making this one of the heaviest May snowfalls on record in the Winnipeg area
(see table below) Official snowfall totals from Winnipeg are
yet to be determined. This
storm came just 2 days after Winnipeg took
national hot spot honours with a high of 26C on
Sunday. The storm cancelled flights
at Winnipeg
airport, shut down the TransCanada highway west of Winnipeg,
brought down tree limbs from the weight of heavy wet snow, and caused local
power outages. Click here for more details on this snowstorm.
The
storm system continued to give snow to Southern
Manitoba on
Wednesday, especially over western Manitoba which
was hit hard by heavy snow for the second day in a row. Brandon recorded
another 15 cm of heavy snow Wednesday on top of the 19 cm on Tuesday for a two
day total of 34 cm (25 cm on the ground)
Winnipeg saw mostly rain and ice pellets Wednesday morning before
changing to wet snow in the afternoon with another 2 to 3 cm. At least 15 cm of snow was still on the
ground by Wednesday evening. A satellite
photo from
May 14 clearly shows the swath of snow that covers southern Manitoba. The
deepest snowcover was found over southwestern Manitoba over
the Brandon - Melita areas which received two rounds of heavy snow from this
storm system. Note the edge of the snowline appearing just north of Emerson
extending eastward over southeastern Manitoba. This
area received mostly rain and wet snow from the storm.
All time heaviest May snowfalls in Winnipeg
1. May 1, 1967.....21.1 cm
2. May 19, 1931.....20.3 cm
3. May 9, 2002.....20.0
cm
4. May 20, 1882.....15.2 cm
5. May 5, 1938.....13.0 cm
6. May 5, 1931.....12.2 cm
TUE MAY 4 - ROLLER COASTER WEATHER CONTINUES
The roller
coaster weather pattern of the past couple of weeks will continue tomorrow as
another low pressure system tracks across central Manitoba. This
low will usher in a brief warm-up Wednesday over Southern
Manitoba as
southerly winds boost temperatures up to the 22 degree mark in Winnipeg by
early afternoon. However the warm-up will be short lived as yet another strong
cold front pushes through Southern
Manitoba
Wednesday afternoon, ushering in much cooler air from the north. Southwest
winds will shift into the north by mid afternoon and gust to 70 km/h, sending
temperatures falling from the low 20s in the afternoon to 5 degrees by
mid-evening. Cooler than normal weather will continue through the week, and in
fact, long range guidance is suggesting that cooler than normal weather is
likely into the middle of May over Southern Manitoba. The weather pattern,
which has been dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure over the West
Coast, will be shifting to a trough over the west and an upper ridge over the Southeast
US. This will bring cooler and more unsettled
conditions to the west, while warm and dry conditions spread over the Southeast
U.S. In
between, the storm track will likely set up across the central and northern
Plains giving more frequent precipitation events and storms to the Plains and
southern Prairies over the next 10 days.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APRIL 2004
SAT APR 24 - STRONG WINDS BUFFET SOUTHERN MANITOBA
Strong southerly winds blew over Southern
Manitoba on
Saturday as a
low pressure system tracked across Northern
Manitoba. Winds were especially strong over Winnipeg and
the northern Red River Valley where
sustained winds of 50 to 60 km/h were recorded along with gusts up to 80 km/h.
At the Winnipeg
airport, winds gusted to 41 knots (76 km/h) in the afternoon. At my station, a peak gust of 69 km/h
was recorded at 2:51 pm, the highest gust at my station since October 2001 (71
km/h) (see wind chart below) The
southerly flow allowed temperatures to hit the 20 degree mark in Winnipeg for
the first time this season.
WIND READINGS FROM ROB’S OBS STATION - APR 24 2004 (Click here for wind graph)
TIME WIND SPEED (km/h) GUST HUM (%) TEMP (C)
9:00am 189 31 47 47 5.7
10:00am 202 21 45 40 8.7
11:00am 175 26 48 37 10.3
12:00pm 205 42 55 37 12.3
1:00pm 206 29 53 34 14.1
2:00pm 210 34 47 32 15.6
3:00pm 196 31 69 32 17.2
4:00pm 213 23 56 32 18.2
5:00pm 162 21 55 30 19.7
6:00pm 192 26 48 32 19.1
FRI APR 23 - STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY - GUSTS TO
70 OR 80 KM/H WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
A low pressure system moving into Northern Manitoba
on Saturday will bring a strong southerly flow over Southern Manitoba with
sustained winds of 50 to 60 km/h likely through the Red River valley and gusts
of 70 to 80 km/h possible. These winds will be approaching wind warning
criteria which Environment Canada defines as sustained winds of 60 km/h or more
and/or gusts of 90 km/h or more. Winds will be especially strong over Winnipeg and
the Red River valley
where topography allows southerly winds to funnel up the river valley. The strong winds will likely produce
localized areas of blowing dust which has been reported in parts of southern
Saskatchewan today.
MARCH 2004
TUE MAR 30 - RECORD WARMTH OVER WESTERN CANADA -
MILDER TREND HEADING EAST
It was the warmest March day on record across
Alberta and western Saskatchewan today as temperatures soared into the mid to
upper 20s over much of the area. Among some of the all time record highs set
for the month of March..
Calgary........
25.4C (old March record 22.8)
Banff..........
20.0C (old March record 17.2)
Edmonton
City..
23.9C (old March record 20.6)
Red
Deer.......
24.8C (old March record 19.4)
Lethbridge.....
26.8C (old March record 23.3)
Drumheller..... 28.0C (old March record 22.0)
Kindersley.....
25.7C (old March record 20.9)
Some of
this warmth will spread eastward over the next couple of days although
temperatures over southern Manitoba will
not reach the summerlike values in Alberta.
Still, temperatures should rebound into the low to mid teens over southern Manitoba by
Thursday especially in areas with no snow cover.
SAT MAR 27 - STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
A storm
system over the Dakotas was
bringing the season’s first significant rainfall and thunderstorm
activity over Southern
Manitoba
Saturday. The storm system was
pushing mild moist air from the Plains northward triggering widespread rain and
locally heavier thunderstorms over North Dakota and Southern
Manitoba. The
axis of heaviest rain was falling just to the west of Winnipeg
Saturday with 10-20 mm of rain reported up to noon. The
axis of heavy rain along with embedded thunderstorm activity is expected to
shift over the Red
River valley including Winnipeg
Saturday afternoon and evening before moving east overnight. General rainfall
amounts of 25 to 35 mm are likely over most areas of Southern
Manitoba with
up to 50 mm possible in some localities.
The combination of heavy rain and melting snowpack
may result in some overland flooding due to runoff, but the Red
River is expected to handle the excess runoff since river
levels have been low leading up to the spring melt.
Rainfall totals from Mar 27th rainstorm.. (Storm Total up to Sunday morning)
NOTE: These amounts represent record 24 hr rainfall amounts for the month
of March in Winnipeg.
Previous 1 day rainfall record was 32.0 mm set on March 9, 1878. Note however that official rainfall
amounts from EC sites are estimated due to improper calibrations. EC rain gauges were still fitted with Nipher snow shields during this event which resulted in
recording more rainfall than official standard gauges. Official amounts will
need to be adjusted to compensate for these overinflated
values.
Charleswood..............
43 mm
Winnipeg
Forks........... 46 mm
Winnipeg Fort
Garry...... 47 mm
Winnipeg St
Vital........ 50 mm
Winnipeg St Boniface..... 57 mm
5 km NE Bird’s Hill...... 51 mm (plus marble size hail)
Starbuck................. 42 mm
Steinbach................ 46 mm
Winnipeg Airport.........
51 mm (estimated)
Portage La Prairie....... 53 mm (estimated)
Carman................... 41 mm (estimated)
TUE MAR 23 - MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEEKEND
A change
in the weather pattern over the Prairies will bring more springlike
conditions to southern Manitoba this
week and through the upcoming weekend. Last
week, it was looking like a cold pattern would persist over the Prairies
through the end of March with below normal temperatures, but long range
guidance is now pointing to a warmer solution. The result should be above
freezing temperatures over Southern
Manitoba for
the next several days which should finally start making a significant dent in
the extensive snowpack still covering much of the
area. In fact, some rain is possible over southern Manitoba this weekend as a
storm system develops over the Dakotas.
The milder temperatures and melting snowpack
may also result in some locally dense fog developing over Southern
Manitoba over
the next few days.
THU MAR 18 - SPRING ARRIVES SATURDAY.. ON CALENDAR ONLY
Spring officially arrives this Saturday March 20th,
but you’ll
never know it over Southern
Manitoba as a
cold blast of Arctic air sweeps in for the weekend. A storm system moving
through Manitoba on
Friday will bring gusty south winds which will temporarily put temperatures
above freezing on Friday in Winnipeg.
However, a cold front trailing the storm system will swing through Southern
Manitoba Friday
night ushering in a blast of Arctic air Friday night into Saturday. Highs on
Saturday will struggle to reach minus 10, and northerly winds of 40 or 60 km/h
will produce windchills near minus 25.
The
long range outlook does not indicate any promising springlike
weather for Southern
Manitoba likely
through the end of March with colder than normal weather forecast over the next
10 days. The cold weather is
delaying the melting of the deep snow pack over Southern
Manitoba (30-40
cm currently over Winnipeg) which
makes it that much more difficult for warm air to surface. This year’s snowfall in Winnipeg, the
most since the winter of 1996-97, has provided a deep snowpack
that will take a while to melt.
This tends to delay springlike weather until
the snowpack is gone. This year is on track to be the latest
loss of snowcover in Winnipeg since
1997 when the snowpack finally disappeared on April
26th. Statistics show that based on this year’s current snowdepth, the average date to lose snowcover is generally
in the April 10th - 15th range.
For
more details on Winnipeg
snowcover statistics, click here.
FRI MAR 12 - WORST OF STORM TO SPARE WINNIPEG. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH DAUPHIN-INTERLAKE AREAS
An Alberta clipper storm system is forecast to move
across southern Manitoba on
Saturday bringing an area of heavy snow mainly north of Winnipeg. The
center of the storm is expected to track along the TransCanada highway with the
heaviest snow occurring about 100 - 150 km north of the storm track. This would
put the axis of heaviest snow through the Swan River-Dauphin-Ashern-Arborg-Hecla areas where 10 to 20 cm of snow is
likely by Saturday evening. Lesser amounts of snow are likely south of this
area with about 5 cm along the TransCanada corridor including Winnipeg and Brandon, and
only 1 or 2 cm near the US border
where precipitation may even mix with rain Saturday as temperatures climb above
freezing.
The heaviest snow is expected to spread into the Swan River-Dauphin areas
overnight and continue eastward through the Interlake area Saturday. Look for
deteriorating road conditions especially as you head north on Highway 6 through
the Interlake or Hwy 10 through Dauphin. Some snow is possible over Winnipeg
Saturday morning with even some rain or freezing rain possible before a break
in the precipitation as the storm center moves over the city. However, once the
storm moves east of the city, look for snow to
redevelop and winds to increase from the north. This will give deteriorating
conditions through the afternoon and evening across the Red
River valley as northerly winds gusting to 60 km/h
produce locally poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow. These conditions
will continue Saturday night before a gradual clearing trend moves in
Sunday.
Rob’s forecast for Winnipeg...
TONIGHT.. CLOUDING OVER WITH SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WINDS
INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 30 KM/H. TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 6 THIS EVENING RISING
TO MINUS 2 BY MORNING.
SATURDAY..
OCCASIONAL SNOW AT FIRST WITH A RISK OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN THEN CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 KM/H BECOMING
LIGHT. SNOW REDEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
GIVING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TOWARDS EVENING. HIGHS NEAR
PLUS 1 NEAR MIDDAY THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO MINUS 4 BY EVENING. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 KM/H SATURDAY NIGHT GIVING LOCALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN WINNIPEG NEAR 5 CM WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE CITY AND LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THE CITY.
NOTE: HEAVY SNOWFALL WARNING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF WINNIPEG THROUGH SATURDAY.. 10 TO
20 CM EXPECTED THROUGH DAUPHIN..SWAN RIVER..ASHERN..ARBORG..HECLA. POOR TRAVELLING CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH THESE AREAS.
THU MAR 11 - WINTER STORM ON TRACK FOR SOUTHERN
MANITOBA SATURDAY - HEAVIEST SNOW FORECAST NORTH OF WINNIPEG
Computer models continue to indicate the potential
for some heavy snow over parts of southern Manitoba on Saturday as a storm
system from central Saskatchewan tracks into southern Manitoba. At this point,
models are indicating the heaviest snow should fall generally north of Winnipeg
through the Dauphin-Swan River,
Interlake-Arborg and Bissett
areas where 10 to 20 cm of snow is forecast by Saturday evening. Lesser amounts
of 5 to 10 cm are expected for Winnipeg and Brandon areas
with less than 5 cm near the US border
where precipitation may mix with rain Saturday morning. These snow estimates
may change over the next day or so as the track and evolution of this storm
system becomes more certain. For Winnipeg, the
worst conditions will likely be Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm
center moves east of the city, and gusty north winds develop behind the storm
system bringing reduced visibilities in snow and blowing snow.
TUE MAR 9 - WINTER RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY - POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM SATURDAY?
After a couple of days of
mild temperatures, a sharp cold front will sweep across Southern
Manitoba Wednesday ushering in much
colder air through the day. Early morning temperatures around +2C will drop
below freezing by late morning then drop rapidly through the afternoon reaching
-15 by evening along with strong northerly winds gusting to 70 km/h. Scattered
showers are possible early Wednesday morning as an initial cold front moves
through, with occasional snow and blowing snow likely through the afternoon as
the cold air sweeps in. The
combination of rapidly freezing temperatures, strong winds, and snow could result in poor travelling conditions Wednesday afternoon into the evening
especially on untreated road surfaces.
A
ridge of high pressure is expected to give clearing skies and lighter winds
Wednesday night with sunny skies expected on Thursday. However, long range
guidance is indicating the potential for a possible snowstorm this weekend over
southern Manitoba
as a system moves through the Dakotas.
This may bring snow and blowing snow to Southern
Manitoba on Saturday with gusty
north winds. Stay tuned..
JANUARY 2004
TUE JAN 27 - BITTER COLD WEATHER ON TAP
The coldest weather in 8 years is poised to move
into Southern Manitoba on
Wednesday as a large ridge of high pressure from the Yukon drives
very cold Arctic air across the Prairies. Daytime highs across southern Manitoba on
Wednesday will struggle to rise above the -30C mark with northwest winds of 20
to 30 km/h producing bitter wind chills near -50. The last time Winnipeg saw a
high of -30C was on Feb 2 1996 (max
-30.0C), during a 3 day stretch when the temperature failed to rise above the
-30C mark. The bitter cold is
expected to continue through the rest of this week into next week with
temperatures remaining well below normal.
FRI JAN 23 - COLD SNAP TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
The
current cold snap over Southern
Manitoba shows no sign of easing up
over the next little while. In fact, long range guidance is showing that
even colder conditions will move into the Prairies next week including Manitoba.
A large Arctic high pressure system over the Yukon
will push southward early next week spreading cold Arctic air over all of the
Prairies. The coldest core of this airmass is expected to pass over southern Manitoba
next Wednesday and Thursday when daytime highs will likely be in the minus 25
range while overnight lows drop in the minus 30s to possibly minus 40 in some
localities.
FRI JAN 16 - ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER SNOWFALL
A weather system crossing Southern Manitoba brought
another snowfall to the area today with about 4-5 cm in Winnipeg, 9 cm in
Portage, 11 cm in Brandon, and 10-15 cm in Gimli. The
snowfall caps a snowy week in Winnipeg which
saw 10 cm of snow on Jan 13-14 and another 4 cm snowfall on Jan 11th. With
January only half over, snowfall has totalled 38 cm
at my station so far, well over the average snowfall of 23 cm for the entire
month of January in Winnipeg. Snow
depth at my location is now at 42 cm.. the deepest snow cover at my station since records began in
the fall of 1998. Snow depth at Brandon is
even deeper at 58 cm. The good news
is that there should be a break in the snow over the next few days as a ridge
of high pressure builds in from the north giving clearing skies and colder
temperatures. The next chance of snow is by Tuesday as another system tracks in
from the northwest.
MON JAN 5 - WICKED WINDCHILL
WHIPS WINNIPEG
Temperatures of -33C combining with west winds of 20
km/h produced bitterly cold conditions over Winnipeg and southern Manitoba
Monday morning with windchills as low as -45 in
Winnipeg. At my site, the lowest windchill was -43C at 7:25 am, the
lowest windchill my station has recorded since it
started in 2001. It was
even colder in Brandon where
a temperature of -36C together with a 20 km/h wind produced a bone-chilling windchill of -50!
The cold forced several school closures in rural areas since buses were
not able to run. The good news is
that this will be the coldest day of the week as a moderating trend begins
starting tonight. Each day this week should be a few degrees milder, with
temperatures returning to more seasonal averages by the end of the week.
FRI JAN 2 - SNOWSTORM BLASTS RED RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA
A low
pressure system moving over the eastern Dakotas
brought 10 to 20 cm of snow over the Red
River valley and southeast Manitoba Friday
into Friday night. Strengthening northerly winds by late afternoon brought
considerable blowing and drifting snow with the storm giving poor visibilities,
and leading to the closure of several highways including Hwy 75 from Winnipeg to the
US
border. In Winnipeg, about
15 cm of snow was recorded (14 cm at my site), which followed another 15 cm
snowfall in the city earlier in the week (Monday). This has rapidly made up for a quiet
December that saw very little in the way of snow or storm systems.
THU JAN 1 - SNOW FOR FRIDAY THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER
FOR WEEKEND
A low
pressure system developing over the northern Plain states will spread an area
of snow over southern Manitoba on
Friday with about 5 - 10 cm possible by evening. Strong northerly winds will
develop in the wake of this system late Friday into Friday night which will
bring falling temperatures along with blowing and drifting snow. These
northerly winds will be bringing in much colder air from the Arctic, which
will bring temperatures of minus 20s and minus 30s over the weekend into next
week over southern Manitoba. Consult latest forecasts and warnings
from Environment
Canada and
the US National Weather Service for latest details on this developing storm system
for Friday.
Click here for 2003 Highlights
Click here for
2002 Highlights
