NOV 2005

MON/TUE NOV 15-16 - SNOWSTORM HAMMERS WINNIPEG AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA
 
AN UPDATE OF SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT 
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
 
IN WINNIPEG SNOW BEGAN FALLING AROUND 4 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTENSIFIED MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL ABOUT 22-32 CM OF SNOW WAS RECORDED
THROUGHOUT THE CITY. UNOFFICIAL SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FROM
DOWNTOWN WINNIPEG SHOWED THE FOLLOWING ACCUMULATION PROGRESSION
DURING THE STORM..
 
7:30 PM  .......  4 CM
11:00 PM .......  8 CM
2:00 AM ........ 15 CM
5:00 AM ........ 20 CM
7:00 AM ........ 27 CM
 
SNOW CONTINUED TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PRODUCING
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE HEAVY WET SNOW RESULTED IN
TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LED TO NUMEROUS CANCELLATIONS
AND SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES.
 
AS OF 10:00 PM TUESDAY EVENING UNOFFICIAL SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THIS STORM, FROM THE PUBLIC, WEATHER WATCHERS, AND CLIMATE
OBSERVERS INCLUDED:
 
MIAMI...................... 41 CM
CARMAN..................... 31 CM
BELMONT.................... 29 CM
MACGREGOR.................. 29 CM
OAKBANK.................... 27 CM
PINAWA..................... 26 CM
STONY MOUNTAIN............. 25 CM
NEEPAWA.................... 25 CM
ST. CLAUDE................. 25 CM
ST. ALPHONSE............... 22 CM
SNOWFLAKE.................. 20 CM
ELPHINSTONE................ 20 CM
BRANDON.................... 18 CM
RIVERS..................... 17 CM
 

Long Range Guidance:

* Alternate Environment Canada Day 3-5 forecast (FOCN12)
* 5 day Max temp anomaly - HPC
* 5 day FM Temperature Guidance - Manitoba
* 10 day MRF loop
* 10 day mean temperature anomaly forecast - Canada (CMC)
* 5 - 10 day mean temperature forecast - Canada (MRF)
* 5 - 10 day mean precipitation forecast - Canada (MRF)
* 6-10 day outlook (CPC)
* 8-14 day outlook (CPC)
* AO/NAO/PNA Outlooks (CPC)
* 0-16 day GFS
* 15 day ensemble loops - 500 mb pattern, 500 mb height anomaly, 850 mb temp anomaly, homepage 
* Multi-model ensemble site  
* Long Range Model Comparison (ECMWF/GFS/CMC/NOGAPS)
* ECMWF 3-6 day
* ECMWF progs - Day 3, Day 4, Day 5, Day 6,  Day 7

 

 

 

THU NOV 10 - RECORD MILD REMEMBRANCE DAY ON TAP?
A southwest flow of very mild air is expected to prevail over southern Manitoba on Friday which may give near record highs in some localities.  This same airmass produced 11 record highs in Alberta today including 17.5C in Red Deer, 18.6C in Rocky Mountain House, and 17.4C in Edmonton City.  The mildest Remembrance Day on record in Winnipeg was in 1987 when the mercury hit a balmy 14.8C.  It’s possible that Winnipeg may approach this mark by afternoon, given sunny skies and a favourable southwest flow developing by midday. Winnipeg often sees its warmest days with sunny skies and west to southwest winds.  Areas south of Winnipeg will be even milder with highs of 17-18C possible around Morden and Emerson. Areas north and west of Winnipeg however will be much cooler on Friday thanks to an extensive snowpack left over from Tuesday’s snowstorm that brought up to 30 cm of snow across the Riding Mountain areas into the central Interlake region.

Update:  Winnipeg reached a high of 12.2C, and Morden hit 15.7C

 

OCT 2005

THU OCT 6 - RECORD EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA
Snowfall amounts over Southern Manitoba from Wednesday’s historic early season snowstorm. The Pilot Mound-Killarney area was the hardest hit with 40 to 45 cm of heavy wet snow recorded from the storm.. a record amount not only for October, but for any month in Pilot Mound. 

Pilot Mound...... 45 cm
Killarney........ 40 cm
Snowflake........ 35 cm
Miami ........... 18 cm
St Alphonse...... 22 cm
Boissevain....... 25 cm
Pierson.......... 15 cm
Melita .......... 10 cm
Carman........... 13 cm
Gretna ..........  2 cm

Winnipeg ........  5 cm with up to 10 cm over south end of city

Neighbouring North Dakota was also hard hit especially over the western half of the state where 14 to 22 inches (40 to 55 cm) of snow was recorded with this snowstorm.  

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2005

...EARLY SEASON WINTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROUGHT HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM OCTOBER 4-5.  MANY AREAS SAW RECORD
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE
SAME STORM SYSTEM ALSO BROUGHT HIGH WINDS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE WET
HEAVY SNOW DAMAGED MANY TREES. POWER WAS OUT AT MANY AREAS AS WELL.

USUALLY THE FIRST MAJOR SNOW COMES AT THE END OF OCTOBER INTO
NOVEMBER. HAVING THIS MUCH SNOW THIS EARLY IS INDEED RARE AND
RECORD BREAKING.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES AS REPORTED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BISMARCK.

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

ASHLEY            0.1
BEACH            15.0
BISMARCK          0.9
BOTTINEAU         9.8
BOWMAN           15.0
CENTER 8SE        5.0
DICKINSON        15.0
DUNN CENTER      19.0
DUNN CENTER 4S   22.0
FAIRFIELD        17.0
FESSENDEN         4.0
FLASHER           3.4
GRASSY BUTTE     14.0
HALLIDAY         15.0
HARVEY            6.0
HEBRON           18.0
LAKE METIGOSHE   10.7
LANSFORD          7.3
LINTON              T
MCCLUSKY         14.0
MINOT            14.5 
NEW SALEM         8.8
POWERS LAKE      13.0
RICHARDTON       15.0
STANLEY          13.0
TIOGA            16.0
TROTTERS         14.0
UNDERWOOD         8.0
VELVA             5.0
WASHBURN          5.0
WATFORD CITY      9.1
WILLISTON         5.1

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
526 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005

SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS EASTERN ND FROM THE OCTOBER 5-6 2005 SNOWSTORM

SARLES ND..........14 INCHES
CALVIN ND..........10 INCHES
MUNICH ND..........10 INCHES
LEEDS ND............8 INCHES
LANGDON ND..........7 INCHES
WALHALLA ND.........6 INCHES
STARKWEATHER ND.....5 INCHES
CAVALIER ND.........3.8 INCHES
DEVILS LAKE ND......3.5 INCHES
PARK RIVER ND.......3 INCHES
LANKIN ND...........3 INCHES
PEMBINA ND..........2 INCHES
EDMORE ND...........2 INCHES
GRAND FORKS ND......0.6 INCH

WED OCT 5 - EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM HAMMERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA
Just 5 days after enjoying 27C summerlike weather, Old Man Winter has paid a premature visit to Winnipeg and much of Southern Manitoba as well as western North Dakota. A strong low pressure system moving through the Dakotas has brought a large area of rain and wet snow to southern Manitoba, with significant snow accumulations likely through the Red River valley and southwestern parts of the province. Rain began in Winnipeg around 6 am and changed to wet snow by 8 am. By noon, about 2 cm of slushy snow had fallen in the city, but heavier amounts of 5 to 10 cm had already fallen southwest of the city. 10 to 15 cm of wet snow is possible in the Red River valley by Thursday morning with up to 25 cm possible over the Turtle Mountain and US border areas southwest of Winnipeg. 

The heavy wet snow combined with very strong northerly winds up to 70 km/h this early in the season may cause significant tree damage as well as power outages from downed power lines. Many trees still have plenty of foliage left (especially maples) so the weight of such an abundance of heavy wet snow will cause some serious stress to tree limbs. There will also be major disruptions on area highways including the TransCanada between Winnipeg and the Saskatchewan border. Some highway closures are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. Clearing skies are expected by Thursday afternoon.

 

Some early October snowfalls in Winnipeg.. (snowfalls of 2.0 cm or more between Oct 1-10)

 

Oct 1 1996 ......  4.0 cm

Oct 2 1950 ...... 12.7 cm

Oct 4 1952 ......  8.6 cm

Oct 5 1876 ...... 11.4 cm

Oct 5 1925 ......  5.1 cm

Oct 5 2002 ......  4.0 cm

Oct 7-8 1985 .... 13.8 cm

Oct 8 1959 ......  2.5 cm

Oct 8 1875 ......  2.5 cm 

Oct 8 1987 ......  2.0 cm

Oct 10 1883 ..... 10.9 cm

Oct 10 1959 .....  5.1 cm

Oct 10 1919 .....  3.3 cm

 

(records began in 1872)

 

The earliest significant snowfall (>= 2 cm) recorded at the Winnipeg airport was 5.8 cm on Sept 24 1984, while a snowfall of 18.3 cm was recorded on Sept 25 1872.

SEP 2005

FRI SEP 30 - SENSATIONAL SEPTEMBER ENDS ON SUMMERY NOTE
The fine weather that has characterized much of September ended the month in spectacular fashion with sunshine and summerlike temperatures for the last day of the month. Morning clouds gave way to brilliant sunshine by midday while a brisk westerly flow allowed temperatures to soar into the mid and upper twenties over southern Manitoba.  Winnipeg hit a high of 27.7C, over 12 degrees above average, and just two degrees shy of the record high for the day (29.6C in 1989)  It was even warmer south of the city with Emerson hitting 29.8C, the hottest temperature in the country for the day. The above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs in the 20s, however a major change in the weather pattern will bring much colder weather by Tuesday with occasional rain, and possibly even the season’s first flakes of snow by Wednesday morning.     

 

AUG 2005

WED AUG 10 - COOL SPELL ON THE WAY
After a sunny and warm start to August, a change in the weather pattern will bring a spell of cool weather over Southern Manitoba beginning tomorrow.  A northwest flow of cooler air will bring below normal temperatures over the next week at least along with occasional shower activity.  Daily highs will range around the 20 degree mark or upper teens each day, some 5 degrees below normal for mid August.  This will be a noticeable change compared to the past 4 weeks of generally sunny and warm weather with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s over Southern Manitoba. Despite the upcoming cooler weather, it shouldn’t be as bad as last August which was marked by persistently cool and wet conditions all month leading to the coldest August ever recorded in Winnipeg.  

JUL 2005

SUN JUL 17 - SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SLAM WINNIPEG
Severe thunderstorms rolled through Southern Manitoba Saturday night, bringing significant damage to the Winnipeg area. The city was hit with two back to back severe storms between 11:30 pm and 1:30 am bringing spectacular lightning, torrential rain and damaging winds.  

The first storm developed southwest of the city near Carman, MB around 10:30 pm and tracked northeast towards Winnipeg by 11:30 pm. The storm grew into an intense supercell that clobbered the south end of Winnipeg with torrential rain, with up to 100 mm of rain recorded in just over an hour in Ft Richmond and St Vital areas. A city of Winnipeg rain gauge in Ft Richmond measured a peak rainfall intensity of almost 300 mm/hr at the height of the storm. It was a >100 yr event according to their rainfall return periods.  The torrential rain swamped overloaded sewer systems and led to widespread flooding of basements and underpasses in the area.

The storm moved northeast of the city by 12:30 am but was followed by another line of severe thunderstorms that moved in from the west by 1 am. This line produced severe winds over the city, especially through the downtown and north end of Winnipeg where many trees were damaged along with downed power lines leading to widespread power outages.  The Winnipeg airport recorded a peak gust of 111 km/h as the storm went through between 1:15 and 1:30 am, with doppler radar indicating a classic “bow echo” signature and winds up to 160 kmh just above the surface. This storm moved rapidly northeast and affected areas northeast of Winnipeg through Beausejour all the way to Lac Du Bonnet with damaging winds.

 

JUN 2005

THU JUN 23 - SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BRING END TO DAY OF STIFLING HUMIDITY
Temperatures in the low 30s along with dew points in the mid-20s brought sauna-like conditions to Winnipeg and the Red River valley Thursday sending humidex values soaring into the mid 40s. In Winnipeg, a temperature of 32C and a dewpoint of 25C at 1-2 pm created an extreme humidex reading of 44C, the highest humidex values since 2003. Gretna recorded the highest humidex reading with a peak value of 46 by mid afternoon (33C air temperature and 26c dew point)  It is unusual to get dewpoint values of 25C or higher in Southern Manitoba, but at times they can early in the growing season due to evapotranspiration from plants.

By mid to late afternoon, several clusters of severe thunderstorms moved through Southern Manitoba bringing a welcome relief from the oppressive heat. The storms were associated with a sharp cold front that passed through Winnipeg around 4 pm dropping temperature some 5-7C within 15 minutes, and dropping dewpoint values into the more comfortable teens. Gretna, still re-covering from Sunday morning’s severe thunderstorm wind event, had to contend with yet another bout of severe weather this afternoon, including hail, strong winds, and very heavy rain (45 mm in less than an hour)

Cooler and noticeably less humid conditions are forecast for the next couple of days giving much more pleasant and comfortable conditions for outdoor activities.

 

MON JUN 13 - FINALLY! - SUNNY WARM WEATHER ON THE WAY
After 5 consecutive weeks of cloudy unsettled weather over Southern Manitoba, long range guidance is finally indicating a break in the wet weather pattern by mid week. A ridge of high pressure will build into the Prairies on Wednesday and bring a drying and warming trend that hopefully will hold through the weekend. Temperatures, which have been struggling to reach the 20s this month, will finally warm into the upper 20s by the end of the week with 30 degree highs possible on the weekend. More importantly, it looks like Southern Manitoba will get a break in precipitation, which has plagued the area almost continuously since early May. Over the past 5 weeks, sunshine has been scarce over Southern Manitoba with rain bearing systems affecting the area every 2 or 3 days.  In the 38 days since May 7th, there have been only 6 mainly sunny days in Winnipeg while 23 days have had measurable rain. June has been particularly dreary with no full days of sunshine all month so far and 10 days of measurable rain in the first 13 days of the month. (The last mainly sunny day in Winnipeg was on May 31st.) Rainfall so far this month has not been overly excessive in Winnipeg (about 50 mm so far).. however the frequency of the rain together with the lack of sunshine has left fields and lawns completely saturated with standing water everywhere. This has once again delayed seeding over Southern Manitoba for the second consecutive year due to wet soil conditions. In fact, the soil is so wet this year, the upcoming spell of warm dry weather may prove to be too little, too late for area farmers who need several weeks of hot dry weather to dry out fields. Hopefully, the change in the weather pattern this week is the beginning of such a trend. However, only Mother Nature knows for sure.. 

SUN JUN 5 - YET ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEEKEND OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
In what is becoming an all-too familiar pattern this year, it was another unsettled weekend over Southern Manitoba with plenty of clouds along with occasional rain. This is the 6th consecutive weekend in Winnipeg with rain on at least one day. The unsettled weather pattern began in late April, and has been plaguing southern Manitoba ever since.  The last rain-free weekend in Winnipeg was April 23/24th, while the last sunny warm weekend was April 16/17th. Since then, weekends have been either wet, cloudy, and/or cool.  The weather has been especially unsettled over the past month. In the past 30 days since May 7th, there have been only 6 sunny days in Winnipeg (i.e. full day of sun) while 16 days have had measurable rainfall.  Within that time, Winnipeg has not had more than 2 sunny days in a row, highlighting the unsettled pattern that has persisted over the area for the past 4 to 5 weeks.  This is not that unusual for this time of year when weather systems track through the Dakotas and try to bring increasingly warmer and more humid air north into Manitoba. However, many times this air doesn’t surface, but rather rises into the atmosphere over southern Manitoba generating showers and thunderstorms.  This is what helps make June the wettest month on average over Winnipeg and much of the southern Prairies. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that this unsettled pattern will break any time soon. Long range guidance is suggesting that this pattern sill last into mid June at least, with rain-bearing systems affecting Southern Manitoba every 2 or 3 days. This will not be welcome news for area farmers who are having a difficult time getting into water-logged fields to begin seeding for the upcoming growing season, a sobering reminder of last year’s disastrous season.                     

WED JUN 1 - THUNDERSTORMS BRING DELUGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA
A nearly stationary line of thunderstorms over southwestern Manitoba produced a swath of exceptionally heavy rainfall from Melita through Rivers to Elphinstone near Riding Mountain National Park Wednesday into Wednesday night. Rainfall of 120 mm or more was recorded within this band in only 18 hours with local amounts up to 175 mm reported.         

 

MAY 2005

SUN MAY 1 - MAY STARTS OUT ON WINTERY NOTE
A gusty northerly flow of unseasonably cold air brought a wintery start to May over Southern Manitoba with some snowfall to start the day along with subfreezing temperatures most of the day. About 2 cm of snow fell during the morning hours in Winnipeg along with temperatures of -3C and gusty north winds to 50 km/h, resulting in locally slippery road conditions.  Afternoon temperatures were still below freezing in Winnipeg, some 15 degrees below the normal high for May 1st. In fact, Winnipeg set a record low maximum temperature for May 1st with a high of only +0.6C, beating the old record of +0.9C in 1991. But as bad as it was, things have been worse.  On May 1st, 1967, Winnipeg was blasted by a blizzard that dumped 21 cm of snow on the city.

The good news is that this should be the end of the cold spell that has plagued southern Manitoba over the past week. A change in the upper pattern will finally allow some milder air from western Canada to gradually spread eastward over the next several days, with temperatures finally getting back into the mid teens by Wednesday.

 

APRIL 2005

WED APR 6 - MILD SPELL QUICKLY MELTS AWAY SNOW PACK OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
Mild temperatures in the last week of March and early April allowed a rpid melt of the significant snow cover that was over Southern Maniotba. Snowcover was still some 25 cm deep in Winnipeg on Easter Sunday March 27th, however a week of sunshine and temperatures around the 10 degree mark allowed snow cover to virtually disappear within a week (March break). At my site in Charleswood ,snow cover went to a trace on April 4th, and was gone by April 6th, exactly the same dates as last year’s loss of snow cover. (see table below) The rapid melt also caused river levels to rise over the Red and Assiniboine Rivers mainly due to ice jams upstream. However a continuation of the mild weather along with the opening of the floodway, and ice breakup has prevented major flooding on the Red.     

  DATES OF LOSS OF SNOWCOVER IN WINNIPEG OVER PAST 10 YEARS *
* SOG DATA FROM YWG AIRPORT UNTIL 2002
SOG DATA FROM ROB’S OBS AFTER 2002   

 

SNOWDEPTH          (cm)

Date of Loss of snowcover

 

YEAR

17-Mar

31-Mar

Tr

0

2005

35

15

Apr-04

Apr-06

2004

38

10

Apr-04

Apr-06

2003

15

0

Mar-22

Mar-27

 2002

12

T

Mar-30

Apr-10

2001

12

8

Apr-03

Apr-05

2000

4

0

Feb-22

Feb-28

1999

2

0

Mar-19

Mar-21

1998

10

T

Mar-25

Apr-01

1997

48

25

Apr-26

Apr-26

1996

37

49

Apr-19

May-01

1995

0

0

Mar-15

Mar-15

 

MARCH 2005

FRI MAR 18 - WHEN IS OUR SNOW GOING TO GO???
As expected, below normal temperatures have been persistent over Manitoba most of March so far, resulting in a slow start to spring. As of March 18th, about 35 cm of snow was still on the ground in Winnipeg, with general amounts of 25 to 50 cm over much of southern Manitoba.  With the official start of spring coming up on Sunday, people are wondering when springlike weather will really begin to materialize over Manitoba.  The below normal temperatures have allowed the extensive snow cover to remain fairly intact over the province, with snowpacks still at mid winter values in most areas.  This in turn makes it more difficult for mild air to surface, as any heat energy must first go into melting the snowpack. Only when the snowpack disappears is it easier for springlike weather to move in over southern Manitoba.   

The first table below shows the dates when Winnipeg lost its snow cover over the past 10 years. Last year, which had a similar snowpack to this year at this time, saw a loss of permanent snow cover by April 6th. However that snowcover loss was sped up due to some milder than normal temperatures at the end of March into early April along with a record rainfall on March 26th that helped to diminish the snowpack more rapidly.  With below normal temperatures likely through the end of March, the snowpack this year is expected to diminish more slowly.  If this is the case, snowdepth in Winnipeg at the end of March should still be in the 25 cm range barring any additional significant snowfall. Looking at past years with at least 20 cm of snow on March 31st in Winnipeg (second table below), the average date of persistent snowcover loss was around the second week of April, while total snowcover loss was not until the third week of April.  If history is any indication, then this year will likely see snowcover linger into the middle of April before Winnipeggers will be able to see their lawns again.  Warmer and wetter weather in April could speed up this process, although any significant snowfalls or colder weather over the next couple of weeks may delay the loss of snowcover even longer.

The table also clearly shows that this March and last year have had a longer snowpack than any Marches in Winnipeg since the flood years of 1996 and 1997. This doesn’t necessarily mean a flood problem this year, but it does show that flooding is less of a risk in years when the snowpack disappears early.

DATES OF LOSS OF SNOWCOVER IN WINNIPEG OVER PAST 10 YEARS *
* SOG DATA FROM YWG AIRPORT UNTIL 2002
SOG DATA FROM ROB’S OBS AFTER 2002   

 

SNOWDEPTH          (cm)

Date of Loss of snowcover

 

YEAR

17-Mar

31-Mar

Tr

0

2005

35

15

Apr-04

Apr-06

2004

38

10

Apr-04

Apr-06

2003

15

0

Mar-22

Mar-27

 2002

12

T

Mar-30

Apr-10

2001

12

8

Apr-03

Apr-05

2000

4

0

Feb-22

Feb-28

1999

2

0

Mar-19

Mar-21

1998

10

T

Mar-25

Apr-01

1997

48

25

Apr-26

Apr-26

1996

37

49

Apr-19

May-01

1995

0

0

Mar-15

Mar-15

DATES OF LOSS OF SNOWCOVER BASED ON END OF MARCH SNOW DEPTH ABOVE 20 CM  
WINNIPEG (STATS SINCE 1955)

 

SNOWDEPTH          (cm)

Date of Loss of snowcover

 

YEAR

17-Mar

31-Mar

Tr

0

 

 

 

 

 

1956

76

65

Apr-16

May-03

1996

37

49

Apr-19

May-01

1964

10

46

Apr-10

Apr-12

1955

71

35

Apr-04

Apr-05

1965

33

33

Apr-10

Apr-15

1979

38

32

Apr-19

Apr-23

1974

25

30

Apr-16

Apr-19

1962

41

28

Apr-18

Apr-20

1997

48

25

Apr-26

Apr-26

1975

28

25

Apr-12

Apr-24

1970

28

23

Apr-14

Apr-25

 

TUE MAR 8 - BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THIRD WEEK OF MARCH
Manitobans eager for some spring like weather will likely have to wait a while longer as a below normal temperature pattern sets up for the foreseeable future.  The weather pattern will be dominated by a persistent vortex over eastern Canada that will lock in cold air over the eastern Prairies over the next two weeks at least.  This pattern is being kept in place by a strongly negative NAO (North American Oscillation) which tends to favour cold troughs over eastern North America, and a strongly positive PNA (Pacific North America pattern) that favours above normal heights and temperatures in the far west.  When the two patterns are strong and opposite, then the overall weather pattern tends to remain locked in place for a longer period of time, resulting in persistent cold over the eastern Prairies and eastern North America. Normal highs in Winnipeg rise to the freezing mark by March 21st, however the cold weather pattern will likely keep temperatures below freezing into the third week of March.  Occasional clippers will also bring periodic snowfall to southern Manitoba over the next couple of weeks maintaining the extensive snowcover. This snowcover also tends to delay the onset of warmer weather since any heat energy must first go into melting the snowpack before the ground and air can warm up. Guidance is indicating the pattern relaxing by the third week of March which will hopefully signal a return to spring-like weather by the end of the month.   

SUN MARCH 6 - CLIPPER TO BRING A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER
An Alberta clipper system will track across southern Manitoba Sunday bringing some snow and a return to colder weather. Most of the snow is expected to fall northwest of Winnipeg through the Dauphin and Interlake regions where 5 to 10 cm is possible by evening. In Winnipeg, precipitation should begin by midday with some rain or freezing rain before the precipitation changes over the snow in the afternoon. Snow should continue into the evening before tapering off by midnight with accumulations of 2 to 5 cm possible in the city. Increasing northerly winds Sunday afternoon and evening will cause temperatures to drop from above freezing early in the afternoon to minus 5 by evening and continuing to plummet to minus 15 by Monday morning. 

Rob’s forecast for Winnipeg..

TODAY (SUNDAY).. A few rain showers or freezing rain developing around noon changing to periods of snow this afternoon.  Wind increasing to north 30 km/h this afternoon. Midday temperatures near zero falling to minus 5 by evening.

TONIGHT..Snow and occasional blowing snow this evening tapering to flurries by midnight. Snow accumulations 2 to 5 cm. Wind north 40 gusting 60 this evening diminishing to 30 overnight.  Overnight low near minus 15.

 

FEBRUARY 2005

FEB 2005 HIGHLIGHTS
 
..Quiet month with little weather..
 
February 2005 was a very quiet month weatherwise in Winnipeg with no major storm 
systems and below normal precipitation. February is normally one of the quieter winter 
months in Winnipeg as the "winter doldrums" set in giving the month less snowfall than 
any other winter month on average.  
 
Temperatures in Feb 2005 averaged a little above normal, but that was mainly due to a 
milder than normal first half that saw temperatures rise above the freezing mark on 
several days. The second half of the month was consistently below normal, with temperatures 
failing to rise above the freezing mark and nightly lows frequently in the minus 20s.   
 
Snowfall was only 10 cm for the month, most of it falling in the colder second half of 
the month. Measureable precipitation occurred on only 5 days during the month, with the 
largest daily snowfall of only 3.6 cm on the 20th.  This gave city snow clearing crews 
ample time to reduce the heavy snowpack of late December and January that backlogged the 
city. Snowpack stayed fairly steady through the month averaging around the 35 cm mark most 
of the month at my location.       
 
As of the end of February, snowfall for the 2004-2005 season stands at 100.2 cm at my 
location, just 10 cm short of the average 110 cm for the season.  Normal snowfall for 
March is 16 cm and 10 cm in April, although there can be a large variability since these 
months are famous for producing some of the city's heaviest snowfalls in the past.      
 

 

JANUARY 2005 

SUN JAN 16 - FRIGID COLD SNAP BRINGS RECORD COLD TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
A ridge of Artic high pressure over southern Manitoba produced some bone-chilling temperatures Sunday morning as clear
skies and light winds allowed temperatures in some areas to drop below the -40C mark. The coldest readings were registered 
from the Interlake area through Gimli into the Whiteshell and Sprague areas where temperatures dropped as low as -44.3C  (-47F)  
 
                    DAY    REC   REC   NEW/   YEAR
STATION             MIN    MIN   YEAR  TIE    BEGAN
----------------   -----  -----  ----  ----    -----  
Gimli              -44.2  -39.4  1954  NEW    1945
Pinawa             -43.9  -41.1  1979  NEW    1964
Sprague            -44.3  -43.9  1979  NEW    1916
Fisher Branch      -39.9  -38.5  1982  NEW    1978
 
Temperatures in Winnipeg bottomed out at -37.7C at the airport, although there were pockets of -40C in and around the
city, including an unofficial reading of -43.8C near Bird’s Hill Park.

Mon Jan 10th - Bitter cold weather moving in by late week
A frigid Artic airmass is forecast to move into Manitoba by Thursday sending temperatures into the minus 30s with wind chills likely near minus 50 over Southern Manitoba. A low pressure system will cross southern Manitoba on Wednesday bringing some snow to the area with 2 or 3 cm possible. Behind this system, strong northwesterly winds will usher in bitterly cold temperatures by Thursday as a large Arctic airmass floods in from the north. The bitter cold conditions are expected to continue Friday into the weekend although wind chills should gradually ease as winds diminish over the weekend.

Click here for 2004 Highlights

Click here for 2003 Highlights

Click here for 2002 Highlights

WHAT KIND OF WINTER CAN WE EXPECT?
(prepared Oct 25th 2004)

As October winds down to a close, Manitoba residents are wondering what kind of winter they can expect over the next few months. After a wet spring, the coldest summer on record, and a mild wet fall, most residents are hoping to catch a break this winter with above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. And the early consensus is they may get their wish. Preliminary speculation is that a developing El-Nino phase will bring a milder and drier than normal winter across Western Canada and the Prairies. However the mere presence of a El-Nino does not necessarily always translate to a milder winter for Manitoba.  For example, a weak El-Nino event may restrict milder conditions to the West Coast, with a colder than normal winter for the eastern Prairies.  This outcome is even more likely if the West Coast ridge is amplified by warmer than normal ocean temperatures over the Gulf of Alaska, which played a key role in producing the abnormally cold spring and summer over the Prairies this year. A stronger El-Nino phase would favour a warmer and drier winter for the Prairies more typically associated with El Nino events. At this point, a weak to moderate El-Nino is being forecast for the upcoming winter which would favour a “normal” winter for the Eastern Prairies, and warmer than normal conditions over the Western Prairies. If the El-Nino phase becomes stronger than currently forecast, then the odds are better for a warmer than normal winter across Manitoba.  For some links to various long range winter products, see the Waterloo winter forecast site for some helpful information.

Among some of the more useful links for long range forecasting..

NOAA Winter Weather Outlook

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

Most Recent 2 Months Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Animation

ENSO Impacts by Region

UK Met Office Predictions

The above list does not contain long range products from Environment Canada. Although Environment Canada does issue long range outlooks, the forecasts are heavily automated with little human input or analysis.  As a result, the long range products are generally quite poor and exhibit little or no skill in predicting future weather patterns. The above links offer better insight and more thorough human analysis that are critical in producing more accurate long range weather outlooks.