Jul 25... Rain
finally falls over Winnipeg.. but too little to alleviate drought.
An area of showers and
thundershowers moved through Southern Manitoba Tuesday bringing the first
measurable rain to the Winnipeg area in two weeks. 6 mm of rain was recorded at
Winnipeg airport Tuesday morning, the first measurable rain in the city since
July 13th (4.5 mm), and only the second day of measurable rain this month.
Rainfall today ranged from 2.3 mm in Charleswood to 8.6 mm in Fort Richmond.
The 6 mm at Winnipeg airport brings the monthly total for July to 10.5 mm, still
on pace to be the city's driest July since records began in 1872. The
driest July on record in Winnipeg was back in 1875 when only 13.5 mm of rain
fell for the month. There is still a chance of additional rainfall on
Thursday and towards the end of the month, so the record is far from a
certainty.. especially considering summertime rainfall can be very heavy.
..Warmest January on record in Winnipeg and much of Manitoba..
January 2006 will go down in the history books as Winnipeg’s mildest January since records began in 1873. With
a mean monthly temperature of -7.4C at Winnipeg
airport (see monthly
January 2006 will finish over 10 degrees above normal (normal -17.8C), easily
beating the previous warmest January of 1944 which finished at -10.6C.
Thus, January 2006 will beat the 1944 record by a full 3 degrees C which is an
extraordinary margin when talking about mean monthly temperatures (consider
that Winnipeg’s next 10 mildest Januarys are separated by only 2 degrees
C overall - see table below) This shows how
unusual the weather pattern has been this winter, not only in its deviation
from normal, but in its persistence. Since Dec 21st, Winnipeg
daily temperatures have been above normal every day but one (see January
most of those days have been 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In effect, southern
has been stuck in perpetual March like weather since the official start of
winter, with plenty of cloud, melting snow, occasional freezing rain, and
messy roads. Interestingly however, no record daily highs were established
during January. Instead, it was the
absence of cold rather than record warmth that was the main story during the
month. There were only 3 days that
dropped below -20C when a normal January would see at least 20 days. The coldest day of the
month was -32.9C reading on the 22nd, the month’s only -30C reading.
Last January saw 10 days of -30C or lower.
There were 6 days during the month with above freezing temperatures,
with a monthly maximum of +2.8C on January 23rd. Heating degree days for the
month totalled only 787 units, some 30% lower than
the normal 1100 during January resulting in a considerable savings on heating
bills for the month.
main cause for the unusual stretch of mild weather has been the displacement of
the Arctic vortex which normally sits over the Canadian high Arctic
or Hudson Bay.
This year, for some unknown reason, the cold pool of air has been displaced
giving eastern Europe one of its severest winters in
decades. This has allowed a mild Pacific flow to sweep over much of Canada,
maintaining mild conditions for weeks on end, and keeping any cold air from
surging south. The net result has been one of the mildest Januarys on record in
many parts of the country (see January
particularly over the eastern Prairies which were over 10 degrees above normal
for the month.
top ten warmest Januarys since 1873 are as follows..
1. 2006..... - 7.4C
2. 1944..... -10.6C
3. 1942..... -11.4C (would have
been warmest if not for very cold first week)
4. 1992..... -11.5C
5. 1990..... -11.6C
6. 1987..... -11.8C
6. 1919..... -11.8C
8. 1958..... -11.9C
9. 1931..... -12.2C
Environment Canada Day 3-5 forecast (FOCN12)
* 5 day Max temp anomaly - HPC
day FM Temperature Guidance - Manitoba
day MRF loop
day mean temperature anomaly forecast - Canada (CMC)
* 5 - 10 day mean temperature
forecast - Canada (MRF)
* 5 - 10 day mean precipitation
forecast - Canada (MRF)
day outlook (CPC)
day outlook (CPC)
* AO/NAO/PNA Outlooks (CPC)
* 15 day ensemble
loops - 500
mb pattern, 500
mb height anomaly, 850
mb temp anomaly, homepage
* Multi-model ensemble site
Range Model Comparison (ECMWF/GFS/CMC/NOGAPS)
* ECMWF progs - Day
some of the more useful links for long range forecasting..
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Recent 2 Months Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Animation
Impacts by Region
Click here for 2005 Highlights
Click here for 2004 Highlights
Click here for 2003 Highlights
Click here for 2002 Highlights