A Very May Long Weekend Ahead

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After a brief heat wave that brought deadly fires to parts of southeast Manitoba, things will shift to the polar opposite for the long weekend.

ECMWF 24-hour Precipitation Accumulation valid 12Z Saturday May 17, 2025
A swath of accumulating rain will fall across southern Manitoba on Friday with a further 5 to 20 mm across the region.

There’s no beating around the bush, it’ll be a miserable day in Winnipeg today. As a potent low pressure system meanders through North Dakota and Minnesota, it will continue to wrap rain into the province while driving a cold front south. It will be a rainy day in Winnipeg today with strong northerly winds developing. Temperatures will fall into the mid-single digits this afternoon as those winds gust as high as 70 to 80 km/h.

Rainfall totals will vary across the Red River Valley, but accumulations will broadly fall into the 10 to 20 mm range with localized pockets of higher and lower accumulations. The main swath of rain will stretch from east of the south basin of Lake Winnipeg southwest through the Red River Valley. The rain will gradually taper off on Friday night as temperatures head down to a low near +2 or +3 °C.

Saturday will be a cold May day with northerly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h and a high temperature that struggles to climb into the 5 to 10 °C range. Skies will stay cloudy through the day. Temperatures will drop into the 0 to 5 °C range on Saturday night under cloudy skies. A ridge of high pressure building into the region will finally bring an end to those moderate northerly winds.

Sunday will bring more cloud cover to the region, but sunshine may poke through later in the day. Temperatures will climb to around 10 °C with east winds around 20 km/h. Skies will clear out for Sunday night with a low in the 0 to 5 °C range.

A Note on Smoke

Over the coming days (and weeks?) wildfire smoke will be an occasional concern for the region. Multiple large fires are now burning in southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario, and their smoke plumes will move towards the region in any easterly or northeasterly wind. That said, it will be complicated to forecast for as the relative closeness of the fires means that depending on the conditions the plumes may be widespread in coverage or they may be narrow bands that stretch downwind of the fire.

Complicating things more will be the need to wait and see how the fires respond to this weekend’s rain and cooler temperatures.

All that to say that wildfire smoke may be a concern at times in the weeks ahead, if not for much of the summer. Moreover, these fires are ripping through cottage country, likely impacting someone you know.

The best thing that could happen is a stretch of cooler weather with frequent rain; we’ll see what happens in the weeks ahead.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the start of next week, it looks like temperatures will gradually climb back towards seasonal values with mainly sunny skies. At this point it doesn’t look like there will be much chance for precipitation through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

Scorching Heat to Give Way to Unsettled and Much Cooler Weather

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The scorching heat and dangerous fire conditions will persist in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley for another day before the heat shifts east and showers and thunderstorms move into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday May 13, 2025
Tuesday will bring another day of scorching heat and dangerous fire conditions in southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will be off to a hot start today with temperatures in the low 20s that quickly climb to 30 °C by lunch. Southerly winds will pick back up to 40 gusting 60 km/h as temperatures continue to climb to a high in the mid-30s. Relative humidity will again drop below 20% today, which coupled with the heat and moderate winds will pose another risky fire weather day for the region. There will be a slight chance of an isolated evening shower or thunderstorm, but nothing substantial is expected for the region. Temperatures will head to a low in the mid-teens tonight with winds shifting to the north and easing.

On Wednesday, an upper low will shift from Idaho into southern Saskatchewan. As it pushes into the region, it will support a broad area of showers and thunderstorms that move from southeast Saskatchewan into western Manitoba and across the Interlake region. This broad area of cloud and rain showers will intensify the temperature change across a warm front draped southwest-northeast across southern Manitoba. Over a short distance, temperatures will change from around 30 °C on the warm side of the front to the upper teens on the cold side of the front. Right now, Winnipeg is forecast to sit barely on the cold side of the front with a high in the mid-20s, but small changes in the position of that front may change the daytime high by 5 °C or more.

Showers and thunderstorms will blossom across Manitoba on Wednesday night, but much of the activity looks to move through west and north of the Red River Valley. Temperatures in Winnipeg should dip down into the mid-teens on Wednesday night with cloud cover beginning to move into the area.

On Thursday, the unsettled weather will shift east into the Red River Valley as a pair of shortwaves lift north out of the Dakotas towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures will peak in the low 20s as more cloud and scattered showers and/or thunderstorms push through the region. with moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h developing through the day.

On Thursday night, unsettled showery conditions will likely transition to periods of rain as temperatures continue to cool and a much broader, more organized low pressure system develops. Temperatures will dip down into the mid-single digits overnight with moderate northwesterlies continuing.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into Friday, periods of rain will continue through the day as more cold air pushes into the region. Temperatures will hold steady or even fall through the day, potentially dropping as low as +1 or +2 °C. Heading into Friday night, temperatures may drop to freezing, and precipitation over the region could turn into a wintery mix of rain and/or snow with a risk of freezing rain. Those northwest winds will continue through the night.

Heading into the weekend, the precipitation looks to gradually taper off on Saturday with a high in the low single digits and easing winds. Temperatures may dip below freezing on Saturday night. Cloudy skies will likely stick around into Sunday with a warmer high in the 5 to 10 °C range.

Temperatures will slowly trend towards seasonal values this week, but another disturbance mid-week may bring more rain to the region and keep temperatures seasonably cool through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

More Warm Weather Ahead in Winnipeg

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After a brief one-day break with seasonal temperatures, warmer weather will gradually build back into southern Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 03Z Thursday May 8, 2025
Wednesday evening’s Whiteout Street Party will start with pleasant temperatures in the upper teens in downtown Winnipeg.

Seasonal temperatures return to the Red River Valley today behind a cold front that moved through the region overnight. Northerly winds will continue through the day near 30 gusting 50 km/h as temperatures climb to a high in the upper teens. The wind will die off tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves in and sends temperatures down into the low single digits.

An upper ridge will begin to build back across the Prairies mid-week, bringing more sunshine and warmth to the region. On Wednesday, temperatures will climb to around the 20 °C mark with light southeast winds developing in the afternoon.

Wednesday evening’s Whiteout Street Party for Game 1 against the Dallas Stars should see temperatures near 16 or 17 °C at puck drop that cool to around 11 °C by the end of the game. The low overnight will dip down into the upper single digits under clear skies.

Warmer weather returns for Thursday as daytime highs climb into the mid- to upper-20s as southerly winds of 30 to 40 km/h redevelop over the region. Those southerly winds will ease and turn northerly on Thursday night as a weak cold front pushes through the region. It may bring clouds and a chance of showers overnight into early Friday morning. Temperatures will head to an overnight low in the low teens.

Long Range Outlook

Friday and Saturday are looking like they will bring seasonal to mild temperatures to the region along with an end to the sunny skies with cloud cover possible later Friday into Saturday. Showers may be possible Saturday night as warmer air pushes into the region. Sunday will be another hot day with highs in the upper 20s possible. That heat will likely build into Monday and bring the chance for Winnipeg’s first 30 °C day of the year.

For Friday’s Whiteout Street Party, the weather should be similar to Wednesday with the only notable difference being a more noticeable northerly breeze. Which, to be honest, will likely be low down on the “things to notice” list if you’re planning on heading downtown for the game.

Go Jets go!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +3 °C.

Summer Heat Arrives in Southern Manitoba

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Temperatures in Winnipeg will soar this weekend as a strong upper ridge draws summer heat north into the province.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday May 4, 2025
This weekend will bring the warmest weather so far this year to southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg has had a couple mild days this spring, but none that will compare to the heat that builds into the region this weekend. With a cooler Thursday behind us, yesterday’s northerlies will be replaced with light westerlies as milder Pacific air begins to push east. Today will trend cooler with a high in the low teens as the region transitions out of the colder air that moved into the region. While the day will start with cloud in the region, it should break up and move out for the afternoon.

Temperatures will dip into the 5–10 °C range tonight under clear skies as light winds shift southerly.

Heading into the weekend, the early-season heat is on with mainly sunny skies through the weekend. Saturday will bring daytime highs into the mid-20s while Sunday will likely be warmer with highs in the mid- to upper-20s . Winds will shift westerly through Saturday but should remain light. On Sunday, the winds will strengthen from the south to as high as 40 gusting 60 km/h. Those winds will ease into the 20 to 30 km/h range on Sunday night. Overnight lows in both nights should sit in the 10 to 15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

The warm weather will stick around for Monday, then ease to seasonal values for a couple days before more heat builds back into the region. No significant precipitation is in the forecast.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.