Models indicate that there is a chance of showers late overnight and into tomorrow morning, and then we should return back to mostly sunny skies before cooler air pushes in for the weekend.
The GEM-REG model is currently the most aggressive in pushing rain through southern Manitoba tomorrow morning, as shown above in the 12H precipitation accumulation map valid 12Z Wednesday morning.
Sunny skies this evening should cloud up overnight as a cold front passes through southern Manitoba. Most models lean towards just a slight chance of showers for the RRV, with a majority of the precipitation occurring in Northwestern Ontario. The GEM-REG model, however, fires up a fair line of showers along the front as it passes through overnight, giving up to 5mm of rain to the RRV. This solution currently looks to be an outlier, however so far this cold front has had a good history of precipitation along it.
Either way, it’s fairly certain that any accumulations that do develop should stick to the 5mm range, and will certainly be less than 10mm. After the front passes through, we should see another mostly sunny day with a few clouds scattered around.
By Friday, as an upper ridge builds in the western Prairies, we should see a brisk northerly flow develop as a cold front slumps down through the province. Expect cloudier skies than the forecast currently suggests in the afternoon. The good news is that despite the chill in the air, precipitation is looking like it should stay north of Winnipeg. Saturday looks to be a chilly day with 850 temperatures struggling to get above 0 for most of the RRV, and then we begin to transition back to warmer weather for the beginning of next week as the upper ridge moves east.
