The massive warm-up alluded we discussed on Wendesday is in full swing with warm air aloft surging over Southern Manitoba. Rapid snow melt and swelling rivers will be the name of the game this weekend as temperatures soar into the mid-to-upper teens with overnight lows dipping only into the mid-single digits.

Friday

11°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny.

Saturday

16°C / 7°C
Mix of sun and cloud.

Sunday

15°C / 0°C
Slight chance of a morning shower then clearing.

Today we’ll see the warmest day of the year so far here in Winnipeg with temperatures climbing towards the low teens this afternoon under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the southwest at about 20km/h. This warmth is thanks to a southwest flow that has developed aloft which has displaced the northwest flow that has been locked over us for far too long.

Temperatures at 850mb[1] are forecast to push towards 12–14°C over the weekend, almost 20°C warmer than the temperatures at 850mb over Winnipeg on Wednesday morning. Typically temperatures that warm would result in daytime highs approaching 20°C but our extensive snow cover over the Red River Valley will drag temperatures down somewhat. The big question mark is to what extent the snow cover will be able to maintain the layer of cold air near the surface, especially since winds aren’t expected to be too strong. The snow should be able to hold our temperatures back the most today; the warm air will still be working it’s way in and the winds will be fairly light through the lower levels; our high of 11°C will probably be reached later in the afternoon in most places.

By Saturday, though, the warm air will be surging into Southern Manitoba and not even the snow-cover will be able to hold our temperatures back. Many models have the temperature up to nearly 15°C by lunch on Saturday. Temperatures won’t climb too much above that, but assuredly that will dramatically impact the remaining snowpack over the Valley. If we can reach that temperature so early in the day, it’ll be almost a guarantee that little to no snow will be left over in the Valley by the end of the weekend.

With such warm temperatures aloft on the weekend, our overnight low will only dip to around 7 or 8°C on Saturday night. There will be a very slight chance of a shower or two on Sunday morning as a low pressure system passes to our north; the temperature should be able to climb back up to around 15 or 16°C before a cold front pushes through drops our temperature back towards around 12°C in the afternoon.

Next Week

Next week looks a little unsettled; we should see another warm day on Monday and Tuesday as a warm return flow sets up ahead of another low pressure system. That system currently looks quite strong. The GFS is forecasting for it to move through on Tuesday into Tuesday night and will likely bring snowfall warnings through portions of Northern Manitoba while some rain moves through the Red River Valley long the cold front late Tuesday. This system will usher in cool air which will drop us back into a below-to-near-normal regime, but not nearly as bad as of late. Daytime highs through the second half of the week look to sit near 8°C. We’ll see how things develop; one thing is for sure, though: the massive erosion of snow cover this weekend will make it substantially easier to warm up from here on out!