A more active pattern will be setting up over Southern Manitoba as a southwesterly flow aloft develops thanks to a quasi-stationary high pressure system that will set up shop over eastern North America. This will bring us multiple chances of rain and thunderstorms over the next 5 days or so.
28°C / 16°C
Showers or thunderstorms ending in the morning, then a mix of sun and clouds with the slight chance of a thunderstorm.
30°C / 16°C
More sun than cloud. Increasing cloud then risk of showers or thunderstorms overnight.
28°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny. Might actually not rain.
Friday
We’ll see a rainy start to the day as the remnants of Thursday night’s nocturnal convection begin to dissipate over the Red River Valley. Showers or thunderstorms will taper off through the morning, leaving us with a mix of sun and cloud by midday. Thunderstorms will redevelop along the main surface trough in Southern Manitoba in the afternoon but the complicating factor will be the positioning of the trough, which is extremely uncertain at this point.
It seems most likely that the trough will be east of Winnipeg by the time things redevelop along it, although due to that uncertainty we’re keeping a slight chance of another thunderstorm through the early afternoon in for Winnipeg. We’ll update in the comments below if it’s readily apparent that the trough will be east of town by mid-morning. We’ll see clearing skies tonight as we head to a low of around 16°C.
The Weekend
Saturday will be a hot day with relatively comfortable humidity. We’ll see temperatures climb to around the 30°C mark again across the Red River Valley under a mix of sun and cloud – although there should be more sun out there than cloud. We’ll see some increasing cloudiness in the evening as a weak upper trough pushes into the province. There will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms through the overnight period for a large swath of Southern Manitoba, although at this point the best chance looks to be from Dauphin to Brandon and then in the Red River Valley near the western escarpment.
Sunday will be a nice day where we might actually have no chance of rain! Temperatures will climb back into the high 20’s – probably close to 28°C again – under mainly sunny skies. Sunday night will be clear with a low near 16°C.
Next Week
At this point, Monday and Tuesday both look like relatively rainy, possibly stormy, days as a train of disturbances move over Southern Manitoba. There are hints that once we get past the first couple days, we’ll return to a more stable pattern, but first thing’s first; we’ll continue to have updated thoughts and details in the comments below!
