After suffering through the 6th coldest December on record and a January that has seen all but one night drop below –30°C, a reprieve from winter’s icy grip is on the horizon as the upper air pattern finally shifts and allows some warmer air to spill eastwards into Manitoba.
-23°C / ↗ -16°C
Mainly sunny. Light snow with strong winds overnight.
-8°C / -10°C
Light snow and strong winds tapering off in the morning then cloudy.
-3°C / -9°C
Mixed skies with chance of flurries in the evening.
Wednesday
Today will be the last sub-minus 20 day we’ll see this week! Our temperature will climb from our overnight low around –32°C up to around –23°C this afternoon under mainly sunny skies. We’ll see increasing cloud late in the afternoon or through the early evening as a warm front approaches from Saskatchewan. Temperatures will continue to rise overnight as the warmer air pushes into the province; we should rise to around –15°C by tomorrow morning.
In addition to the warmer air, we’ll also likely see some light snow move in with the cloud. The light snow will start overnight and taper off through Thursday morning. Amounts will be fairly minimal; here in Winnipeg we might see as much as a whopping 1–2cm while the southern Red River Valley will likely just see a few flurries with no significant accumulation.
The other significant weather tonight will be the increasing southerly winds. As the warm front approaches from the west, very warm air aloft will push into the Red River Valley. Temperatures at 850mb are expected to rise from around –15°C on Wednesday evening to close to 0°C by Thursday morning. With dense, cold Arctic air still in the Red River Valley, this strong temperature inversion will induce stronger winds than just the pressure gradient would imply. It’s difficult to pin down, but I think that we’ll see the winds pick up through Wednesday evening to 40–50km/h by Thursday morning with gusts as high as 60–70km/h. If things are able to completely decouple or the Arctic air is miraculously expedited out of the Valley very quickly, then we might see the winds remain calmer, somewhere between 20–30km/h; I don’t think this is particularly likely, though.
Thursday & Friday
We’ll see light snow slowly taper off on Thursday morning and then mainly cloudy skies thereafter. The winds will taper off through the morning to around 15–20km/h and remain there for the remainder of the day. Skies will remain mainly cloudy and we’ll see our temperature climb to a comparatively balmy (and warmer than normal) –8°C. Clouds will scatter out a bit on Thursday evening leaving us with partly cloudy skies and a low near –10°C.
More warm air pushes into the region on Friday as a low pressure system tracking through Central Manitoba drags another shot of warm air eastwards. Our temperature should climb to around –4 or –3°C under increasingly cloudy skies. Winds will be fairly light as well which will make it quite a pleasant day. Some light flurry activity is possible Friday evening and overnight into Saturday as we drop to a low near –10°C once again.
The Weekend
More warm weather is ahead for the weekend with daytime highs near –5°C on Saturday and possibly breaking 0°C on Sunday as a low pressure system winds up over the region, bringing potentially an inch or two of snow and a slight risk of some freezing rain. Mild temperatures continue into next week, so enjoy a nice break from the cold!
