After an exciting start to the week thanks to a Colorado Low that brought anywhere from 20-50cm of snow through portions of Southern Manitoba, North Dakota, Minnesota and Ontario, conditions are poised to return to near normal by the end of the week.
A west-to-southwesterly flow aloft will slowly bring warmer air into our region and allow our temperatures to finally snap out of the 10-15°C below normal regime Southern Manitoba has been stuck in for the past week and push towards seasonal values for this time of year. The considerable snow pack still remaining will limit our ability to warm above 0°C without any strong push of warm air as any extra energy the sun is giving at this time of year will be going into melting snow, not warming air.
A weak ridge of high pressure will keep skies clear and winds light today as temperatures climb to around -1°C. Temperatures will drop to around -13°C tonight with increasing cloudiness as a weak inverted trough extending northwards from a Colorado Low tracking through the Central Plains pushes into our region.
Thursday will be mostly cloudy – perhaps a few sunny breaks – with a slight chance for some flurries. There will be more organized light snow in southwestern Manitoba, perhaps a cm or two, but the inverted trough will slowly weaken and fizzle out as it pushes towards the Red River Valley. By the time it reaches Winnipeg, it seems likely that all that will remain is very disorganized and light flurry activity. Temperatures will climb to around -1°C again and drop to a low near -10°C overnight under mostly cloudy skies.
On Friday, the day will likely start cloudy but clear out through the morning leaving a mainly sunny afternoon. Temperatures will manage to squeak above the freezing mark to +1°C or so, making for quite a pleasant afternoon. Expect an overnight low around -8°C on Friday night under mainly clear skies.
Mild Weekend on the Way
Things look set to bring the warmest air of the year into the region for the weekend. A fairly strong low pressure system is forecast to track through the northern Prairies, dragging mild Pacific air eastwards as it goes. A warm front looks to push through on Saturday afternoon, bringing with it a slight chance for some flurry or shower activity. Temperatures will climb into the low single digits with breezy southerly winds in the 30-40km/h range.
Sunday will be perhaps the nicest day we’ve seen in a long, long time. The Red River Valley will be smack dab in the middle of the warmest air and temperatures will climb to a more seasonal 5 or 6°C before a cold front pushes through in the evening.
Unfortunately, it appears we’ll see a return to below-normal temperatures after that. Exactly how cold is uncertain, however we’ll likely see plenty of “below normal” due to the extensive snow pack that still has a long way to go until it’s melted. On the bright side, it won’t be long until “below normal” will still be above freezing…
