A Colorado low responsible for a tragic severe weather outbreak yesterday across the the Southern United States, and Arkansas in particular, has spread rain northwards into Southern Manitoba this morning. A decent soaking is in store today and then see a cooler, unsettled week ahead as the Colorado Low persists through much of central North America.
Late last week it looked as if we were set to get as much as 25-30mm in a widespread swath through much of Southern Manitoba, however we pointed out the complexities of the setup and how minor changes in the positioning of features could cause big changes in how much precipitation is produced.
It turns out the models did fairly well with the overall picture. Thanks to a little more tilt to the upper trough and the upper low being captured a little sooner than originally forecast, the system as a whole won’t push as far northwards as it looked last week and as a result we’ll see a little less rain than it looked like then.
We’re still in for a decent soaking today, though. Periods of rain will persist through the late afternoon or early evening, and in general much of Southern Manitoba will see 10-20mm of rain. Areas further north, towards the Interlake and much of Parkland Manitoba will see in the 5-10mm range, but it does appear that, for the most part, anywhere along and south of the Trans-Canada corridor in SW Manitoba and the Red River Valley will see between 10 and 20mm with the higher amounts closer to the U.S. border. The temperature will sit around 8°C today with breezy winds out of the east at 30km/h with gusts to around 50km/h.
Near the border there’s a slight chance of accumulations creeping up towards 25mm (1”) or so, but that will depend on fairly heavy rain and some lingering rainfall a bit longer than it seems like it’s likely too. The rain will taper off by this evening and we’ll see gradual clearing through the evening. The temperature will drop to around 0°C.
Another Short-Lived Break
Tuesday looks to be a cool but pleasant day with a high temperature of around 10°C and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will drop to around 0°C once again on Tuesday night with increasing cloudiness.
Wednesday brings back the showery weather as another shot of rainfall pushes into Southern Manitoba from east to west on the back-side of the Colorado Low. Accumulations don’t look significant at this point, perhaps 3-5mm on the high end, but it does seem like it will be a cool, dreary day with a high of only around 7°C. The showers should taper off by the evening as we drop to the freezing mark yet again, this time under cloudy skies.
Where’s Summer?
Unfortunately, not here. Below-normal temperatures are once again forecast for the 7-14 day outlook, meaning we’ll likely see high temperatures only in the high single digits or low teens for the next week or two.
But it’s gotta warm up eventually, right? Right? Here’s hoping for a big turnaround in May.
