Seasonal to above seasonal weather will continue this week, a nice change from the miserable first part of May.
Monday
Today will feature much calmer weather than what was experienced on the weekend. High temperatures will be in the low to mid twenties in southern Manitoba under a mix of sun and cloud. The wind will generally be light and from the north or east.
Tuesday
The threat for thunderstorms will resume in southern Manitoba on Tuesday. At this point there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how the thunderstorm risk will evolve. At the high end, there could be numerous severe storms, and even a slight tornado risk. At the low end, storms would likely just produce small hail and gusty winds. It’s too early to say what the storm mode will be on Tuesday, but bear in mind that severe storms are a possibility. The chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday will make the temperature forecast a bit uncertain as well. If there are no storms, and therefore no additional cloud cover, then we’re looking at temperatures in the upper twenties. However, if there is additional cloud from thunderstorm activity, then highs will probably be in the mid twenties. More details on Tuesday’s potential for storms will no doubt be found in the comments below over the next couple days.
Wednesday
Wednesday is another tricky forecast, as rain may or may not affect the forecast again. Some weather models bring an area of rain and thunderstorms through southern Manitoba in the morning, which would greatly impact the temperature forecast. Like Tuesday, it’s too early to say if this will happen, but it’s certainly a possibility. High temperatures in the mid twenties look most probable, but that outlook could change depending on what happens with the chance of rain.
Long Range
The long range forecast continues to look stormy through the end of the week. Most weather models suggest that there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms in southern Manitoba on Thursday and/or Friday. I feel like I’m saying this a lot, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in this part of the forecast. Models are still not correctly resolving the speed of this system, and until that happens it will be tough to say much about the thunderstorm potential with any certainty. Beyond this week, the weather will likely stay near, to slightly above seasonal values, a nice way to transition into June!
