This weekend will be marked by scattered shower activity persisting as this week’s stubborn upper low slowly exits the region.

It has been an extremely wet week over the Prairies. Things started off with a system that moved into the region late last week and ended up producing nearly 80% of a month’s worth of rain in just two days for some communities. Here in Winnipeg, another 20-25mm of rain that fell yesterday has put rainfall totals over the last 6 days over 90mm, which is 101% of the average total monthly rainfall for June.[1]

While no significant rainfall amounts are in the forecast for the next few days, we won’t quite be able to shake the wet weather. A laggard of an upper low will slowly work it’s way eastwards into Northern Ontario over the next few days, keeping scattered shower activity over the Red River Valley as it does so.

Friday

21°C / 15°C

Scattered showers. Local amounts 5-10mm.

Saturday

23°C / 15°C

Scattered showers developing.

Sunday

23°C / 14°C

Scattered showers developing.

Today will see some shower activity in the area this morning, then a bit of a break before things warm up and scattered showers redevelop for the midday into the afternoon. Rainfall totals for the day will be highly variable thanks to the nature of the showers, but as a widespread generalization, around 5-10mm could fall in localized areas that end up seeing more shower activity than other areas. The high will be near 21°C with a south or southwesterly wind at around 20km/h.

Some shower activity will persist overnight, likely through much of the Red River Valley, with another 2-5mm falling. The low will be near 15°C.

Saturday and Sunday will be very similar days with highs near 23°C and lows near 14 or 15°C. Both days will see scattered showers developing around midday as the temperature warms up and we hit our convective temperature for the day. The shower activity will likely be more widespread on Saturday than on Sunday, but both days see a fairly likely chance of any one spot getting at least a little wet. Winds will be southwesterly on Saturday at around 20km/h and northwesterly on Sunday again near 20km/h.

A Chance to Dry Out?

It does look like next week will be much dryer than this past week. No precipitation is expected through the first half of the week, but by the second half of the week it looks like another system will begin to work its way into southwest Manitoba and spread eastwards for the weekend. Not much to say about it at this point since it’s a ways out and model agreement is still quite low.

It’s safe to say next week will bring at least a few days to dry out across Southern Manitoba with temperatures climbing towards the upper 20’s by mid-week!