Patience will be rewarded heading towards the end of the week as above-normal temperatures[1] are poised to return to Southern Manitoba thanks to a low pressure system that will push across the Central Prairies. In addition to the warmer weather, the chance for some wet weather, possibly even thunderstorms, will make a return as well.

Wednesday

14°C / 3°C

Mainly cloudy & cool; clearing in the afternoon

Today will be the coolest day of the next few as we remain on the periphery of a large pool of Arctic air. Plenty of stratus cloud will persist in Winnipeg until this afternoon; afterwards we’ll see clearing skies and a high temperatures near 14°C. Another chilly night lies ahead with temperatures dropping to the 3 or 4°C mark under continued clear skies.

Thursday

20°C / 16°C

Increasing cloudiness with a breezy southerly wind

Thursday will mark our entry into warmer weather. Gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of a warm front that will gradually push eastwards through the day. Winds will peak at around 30–40km/h with the potential for gusts to around 50km/h. Much of the day looks fairly sunny which will help temperatures climb to around 20°C by late in the afternoon, but by mid-to-late afternoon clouds will noticeably begin thicken up.

The potential for thunderstorms returns Thursday night, but it’s conditional and will be mainly confined to southwestern Manitoba. Substantial mid-level instability will couple with a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the evening to attempt to produce thunderstorms. While many severe weather parameters output by various models look fairly impressive, there are a few concerns I have with development, somewhat related to each other:

1. Even lifting from the low-level jet, convection looks capped. If lift is strong enough to break through the cap and taps into the mid-level instability, then strong to severe storms could be possible, but…
2. Synoptic lift looks uncertain. While the LLJ is forecast to be quite strong at 25–35kt, deeper synoptic lift looks uncertain. Some models hint at a shortwave rippling through the region on Thursday evening, which could help initiate thunderstorms if true.

If thunderstorms did manage to initiate over southwestern Manitoba, they would have a chance of becoming severe, with the main threats being large hail and strong winds. As the system pushes eastwards overnight, the chance for showers or thunderstorms will spread into the Red River Valley. The thunderstorm potential will diminish as the system moves eastwards.

With all the cloud, potential precipitation and breezy winds moving through overnight, temperatures will remain fairly mild, only dipping down to the mid-teens.

Friday

22°C / 9°C

Chance of morning showers; afternoon clearing

Friday will continue the pleasant weather. A slight chance of showers may persist into the morning from Thursday night, but skies should quickly being to clear out, leaving us with partly cloudy to mixed skies for the remainder of the day. Daytime highs will climb into the low 20’s without too much wind to worry about.

Temperatures will drop just under 10°C on Friday night under mainly clear skies.

The Weekend Ahead

The coming weekend looks great! Mostly sunny skies will dominate through the weekend with daytime highs continuing to sit in the low 20’s and overnight lows in the mid-to-high single digits. It will be a beautiful late-September weekend, so get out and enjoy it!