Above-normal temperatures[1] will continue through the remainder of the week as a southwesterly flow aloft continues to pump relatively mild Pacific air over the Prairies.
Unsettled Wednesday
Today will be the most unsettled day of the week thanks to a (very) weak cold front pushing eastwards across the Red River Valley today. A fairly sunny start to the day will become more mixed by mid-day with a slight chance of shower activity in Winnipeg mid-day into the early afternoon. It seems most likely that the activity will remain to the east of Winnipeg, with showers or even thunderstorms almost a certainty in the Whiteshell southwards to the US border.
The American NAM weather model has been an outlier for several runs in a row, producing a fairly potent band of showers and thunderstorms over the western Red River Valley and pushing eastwards through the day. Given the weak surface forcing, mediocre moisture and the rate and evolution of the upper-level destabilization, it seems that the NAM is probably over-doing things and not a likely forecast. It’s worth mentioning here as an outside possibility, though, given its consistency in producing that outcome.
Other than the showers, strong southerly winds at 40 gusting 60km/h will taper off this afternoon behind the weak cold front as they shift to westerly at around 20km/h. The temperature will climb to around 17°C today.
Skies will clear out this evening as the temperature drops near 8°C for the overnight low.
Pleasant End to the Week
Thursday and Friday will both be pleasant fall days – especially for late October. Dry weather will be the name of the game for both days with highs in the mid-teens and fairly light winds. Some cloud will push across the Red River Valley on Thursday night but otherwise things will be mainly sunny/clear. The temperature will dip to around 6 or 7°C on Thursday night and a bit cooler – near 5°C – on Friday night.
Heading into the weekend, the weather continues to look pleasant with highs in the teens, no real threat of rain and plenty of sunshine. Enjoy!
- Normal daytime highs for this time of year sit around the 8°C mark. ↩
