This week will start out with near seasonal temperatures, but somewhat unsettled conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid twenties, but there will be a frequent risk of rain or thunderstorms.
Monday
Today will start out rainy as upper disturbance produces precipitation over much of southern Manitoba. The rain should clear out of most of the province by the afternoon, except perhaps far eastern sections, leading to a breezy, but relatively pleasant evening. Wind will be north-west at 30 km/h gusting to 60 km/h.
Tuesday
Tuesday will be a mixture of sun and cloud with risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Daytime heating will generate an unstable atmosphere across southern Manitoba, prompting storms to develop by the afternoon. These storms should be generally non-severe, although an occasionally severe storm with hail to nickel size may be possible.
Wednesday
It appears that Wednesday will be mainly cloudy with a risk of thunderstorms once again. Unlike Tuesday, storms are Wednesday should be almost exclusively non-severe due to very weak wind shear. There may be issues with heavy rain however, as storms will be slow-moving.
Long Range
The long range forecast looks general near seasonal for southern Manitoba. We will generally remain under the primary upper jet stream, meaning frequent chances for storms and/or precipitation.
The 00Z NAM suggests that Tuesday and Wednesday may be flipped, with Tuesday’s storms being more non-severe and Wednesday seeing a chance for marginally severe cells. In both cases it is largely dependent on how large CAPE values end up being. It looks like Tuesday will see MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less, with Wednesday seeing MLCAPE potentially as high as 1000-1500 J/kg. You should expect storms on both days, but at this point it looks like Wednesday may feature the stronger storms.
Flip flop flip flop; models haven’t been handling this mostly zonal flow very well at all the past week.