This week will remain seasonably warm, with temperatures in the upper twenties to near thirty degrees. There will also be a frequent risk of thunderstorms as the atmosphere remains unstable.
Monday
Today will remain warm and humid, with a risk of thunderstorms. The presence of an upper-level low pressure system is expected to trigger numerous storms. Storms will generally be non-severe and of the pulse variety, with the main threat being heavy rainfall due to slow storm motion. There may be an isolated severe hail report or two due to the moderately unstable atmosphere, but individual severe storms are very unlikely to be persistent.
Tuesday
Thunderstorms will once again be possible in southern Manitoba on Tuesday, but they will once again be non-severe. Any storms that develop will present a risk of heavy rain and perhaps non-severe (small) hail. Skies will be main cloudy outside of the storms as an upper-level disturbance passes through the region.
Wednesday
At the present time, Wednesday appears to be the best risk for severe storms in southern Manitoba this week. Early model output shows parameters favourable for severe storms, including MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg and effective wind shear near 30 kts. It is too early to tell if this severe risk will materialize, but it bears watching. Other than the risk of storms, Wednesday will feature the continuation of hot and muggy weather in southern Manitoba.
