A Stretch of Above-Seasonal Temperatures

The weather this week will remain well above seasonal with high temperatures generally in the minus single digits.

Today will be mainly cloudy with a good chance of flurries as a strong upper-level disturbance passes through southern Manitoba. No significant accumulations of snow are expected. Temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits with north-westerly winds at 20-30km/h.

Skies should clear on Tuesday as a drying north-west flow persists over the region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Monday, but still in the minus single digits. Winds will generally be light and variable.

A strong low pressure system will be the focus of Wednesday’s weather in southern Manitoba. A warm front will pass through during the day, bringing with it a small, but heavy band of snowfall. Given the warmth of the air associated with this front, there is a chance of some mixed phase precipitation in some areas, but it’s too early to discuss those details. It appears that 2-4 cm of snow is probable with this system, but again that total should be revisited closer to the event.

Long Range

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast
The CPC’s 6-10 day temperature anomaly forecast shows a strong return to El Nino winter conditions.

In the longer range it appears we’ll see above-seasonal weather last for the rest of the week before more normal weather returns next week. Long range models aren’t showing a clear signal for February’s weather at this time, which suggests fluctuations between above and below normal conditions.

Scott

Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.