A brief reprieve from the cooler temperatures seen of late in Winnipeg is on the way as unsettled weather returns to the region in the second half of the week. Unfortunately, it looks like a return to slightly below-normal temperatures is on the way for the weekend into next week.
Today will be a pleasant day continuing the trend of the past several days. Plenty of sun will be around with just a few clouds throughout the day as temperatures climb to a high near +1°C. Winds will be a little breezy first thing but will diminish by midday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will dip to around -6°C tonight for the overnight low.
Thursday will see above-normal temperatures return to the Red River Valley as a low pressure system moves into the region from the northwest and spreads milder Pacific air eastwards into the southern portions of the province. This will bring daytime highs up to around +5°C, several degrees warmer than the -2 to 0°C highs of late.
Thursday will also bring moderate southerlies as we often see with the approach of warmer weather. The wind will be relatively calm in the morning, but increase to around 30-40km/h by the afternoon.
As the low pressure system approaches, cloud cover will thicken from just scattered clouds in the morning to cloudy by mid-afternoon. Rain shower activity will move into the Red River Valley through the afternoon period and persist overnight.
The chance for precipitation will continue Thursday night as temperatures drop to a low near -2°C. As temperatures drop below freezing, any rain showers will switch to snow flurries.
Friday will see fairly steady temperatures with a daytime high of 0°C a slight recovery from the overnight low. The chance for flurries will persist into the afternoon under mainly cloudy skies. Gusty northerly winds will pick up on Friday morning to 30-40km/h ushering in cooler temperatures that will drive Friday night’s temperature to around the -10°C mark.
Long Range
The weekend looks relatively quiet with near-seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness.
The bigger weather story on the horizon is a system that will move through southern Manitoba & the northern plains of the U.S. in the second half of next week.
Details of this system are fairly fuzzy at this point, other than saying it will likely be a potent winter storm with a mix of rain, snow and strong wind. At this point, models keep the precipitation in the United States and bring just strong northerlies to our region, but that forecast can easily change over the coming week. The bigger story will be the pattern change that this system will lead into:
Multiple long-range forecasts are showing a high probability of a brief early-April cool snap with temperatures below seasonal values. With daytime highs in the 0 to -5°C range, it won’t exactly be bone-chillingly cold, but it will be well below the seasonal daytime highs near 5-6°C for that time of year.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.
El Nino, where art thou? brrrrrrr
Funny you should ask…
Over the past few weeks, El Niño’s strength has been diminishing rather abruptly. The image I’ve attached shows the sea-surface temperatures from west to east across the equatorial Pacific with the top of the image at the ocean surface and depth increasing going downwards. It’s quite clear that cooler waters are rebounding eastwards and undercutting the abnormally warm El Niño waters. Latest model trends are showing a transition from El Niño conditions towards La Niña through the summer and fall.
Switches from strong El Niños to El Niña conditions are not unheard of; it happened in 1997-98 and in 1972-73, but it is more common to return to neutral conditions.
This switch won’t mean too much for the summer months; teleconnections between equatorial SST and our weather here in Manitoba are quite weak through the middle of the year. If a moderate or strong La Niña were to develop into the fall, however, that would likely result in a winter markedly different from the one we just experienced. La Niña events tend to bring colder than normal conditions to the eastern Prairies & northern Plains of the U.S.. There’s a complicated relationship with some other cycles that dictate exactly how that plays out, but in general, La Niña winters tend to be cold.
That’s a long ways away though!
It is interesting to see that as El Niño has weakened, we’ve shifted towards a more seasonal temperature regime with cooler temperatures sticking around a bit longer than they did even a few weeks ago.