Unsettled Monday, Then A Return to Calmer Conditions
Today will be rather unsettled across the Red River Valley as a trough of low pressure moving through the regions supports scattered showers and thunderstorms. After it passes, though, an omega block begins to develop, bringing more settled weather to the region.
Today’s main weather will be two rounds of showers that move through the Red River Valley. The first round will be early this morning, a continuation of showers and thunderstorms that developed in Saskatchewan last night and have pushed eastwards overnight. There is a chance we’ll also see some embedded thunderstorms with this band as it moves through. General morning rainfall will be around 5-10mm in many areas, but due to the convective nature of the precipitation there will be significant variability, with some areas potentially seeing nothing and others seeing higher amounts.
The second wave of showers will develop in the afternoon as a second low pressure centre moves through the region. This band will likely be more focused that the morning activity and primarily impact areas south of the bulk of the morning activity.
Aside from the rain, conditions will be fairly cloudy, although there may be an odd sunny break between the two batches of showers. Temperatures will be mild with a high near 19°C, but winds will be breezy out of the southeast at around 30 km/h. Temperatures will dip down to around 8°C tonight with clearing skies and winds flipping around to the northwest at 10-20 km/h.
Tuesday and Wednesday with both be much sunnier days with north to northwesterly winds. Tuesday will bring a high near 18 or 19°C with temperatures then dropping to a low near 7°C. Wednesday has quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the daytime high. The developing omega block will be pumping warmth across the western Prairies towards Manitoba, but an upper-level low will be moving westwards from Eastern Canada, pushing cooler temperatures into Manitoba from the east and northeast.
This will create a fairly sharp temperature difference somewhere across the southern part of the province, and with a relatively quick change from 19-20°C in the warm air to around 5°C in the cold air. Winnipeg looks to lie in the middle of this zone, with a high likely near 14°C, but a minor shift of this boundary to the north or south would substantially change the expected high temperature.
Long Range
The weather will continue fairly quiet through the remainder of the week with the cooler temperatures mid-week giving way to highs back near 19-20°C for Winnipeg by Friday. The weekend looks mild, but a chance for showers returns to the region on Sunday.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 18°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.
