Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Unsettled Conditions Persist Into the Weekend for Winnipeg

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The chance of showers and thunderstorms will keep coming back to the Winnipeg area as a couple more disturbances cross the region in the coming days.

NAM 24 hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Sunday June 23, 2024
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through southern Manitoba on Saturday.

After dodging thunderstorms yesterday that hovered in the sky to the west and north of Winnipeg much of yesterday, the city will see a pleasant end to the work week. A broad area of high pressure will sit over the region and bring sunshine and warm temperatures to the city. After a sunny start to the day, skies will turn partly cloudy as daytime highs climb into the mid-20s this afternoon.

Temperatures will head down into the mid-teens tonight with partly cloudy skies.

On Saturday, the region will see increasing cloud as a disturbance moves into Manitoba from Saskatchewan. While showers and thunderstorms will be possible over west and southwest Manitoba through the day, the wet weather will likely hold off until later in the day for the Red River Valley. By late afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely drift southeast through the region, with rain likely in the Winnipeg area.

There isn’t likely a widespread severe weather threat on Saturday for Winnipeg. The instability and wind shear required to organize a thunderstorm will be limited and while a strong thunderstorm is possible, severe weather is unlikely. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening, then taper off overnight.

Temperatures will climb back into the 20 to 25 °C range on Saturday, then dip back down into the mid-teens on Saturday night with cloudier skies.

Sunday will bring another ridge of high pressure through the region. This should clear the clouds out for a sunny afternoon with a high back in the mid-20s. The region will have northerly winds up to the 20 to 30 km/h range. Temperatures will head back down to the mid-teens on Sunday night with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range Outlook

Another low pressure system will move through the region on Monday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Winnipeg area. After that, there is a chance that the region could see stabler conditions for the rest of the week with near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Tuesday’s Cool, Showery End Leads to Warmer Weather

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One last band of showers will move through on Tuesday evening, capping off a cool June day. Fortunately, warmer weather will return for the rest of the week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday June 20, 2024
Despite the cooler Tuesday, early-summer warmth will return for the second half of the week.

Another upper-level disturbance will cross southern Manitoba later today and bring another wave of showers across the Red River Valley. This will cap off a day where temperatures struggle to get past the mid-teens as northerly winds and cloudy skies stay entrenched over the area.

Fortunately the winds will ease tonight with clearing skies as a broad area of high pressure spreads east across the Prairies. Temperatures will dip down into the 5–10 °C range once the showers clear out.

For Wednesday and Thursday, more pleasant conditions will return as a west-southwest flow redevelops across the region. Daytime highs will climb into the low 20s on Wednesday, then into the mid-20s for Thursday. Winds will pick up out of the west into the 20–30 km/h range on Wednesday, ease, then pick up out of the south into the 20–30 km/h range on Thursday.

Both days will bring a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region, but they will likely be focused along a west-east trough line that will likely set up from western Manitoba across the southern Interlake region. It’s unlikely that Winnipeg will see any of that activity and both days should be pleasant in the city.

Long Range Outlook

Looking further ahead, cloudier skies will likely return to the region on Friday. A deep upper trough developing over western North America will support the development of a low pressure system over the American Plains that will then lift northeast later Friday into the weekend.

This system would likely bring a wave of thunderstorms and showers to southern Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday, with the worst weather ending Saturday morning and cooler, showery conditions possible afterwards.

Daytime highs would likely sit in the mid-20s on Friday, drop to around 20 °C on Saturday, then bounce back up to the mid-20s on Sunday. This system could produce another notable rainfall across southern Manitoba with localized accumulations of 30 to 60 mm possible.

Sunshine should return on Sunday, making for a nice end the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Warm, Humid, and Unsettled Weekend Ahead

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Southern Manitoba will see humid conditions develop this weekend as a warm and unsettled pattern develops over the region.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday June 15, 2024
Humid conditions will develop across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

To end the work week, an area of high pressure will gradually shift east out of the province through the day. This will bring a warm and settled day to the region with a high in the 25 to 30 °C range and partly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will begin to pick up later in the day and mark the beginning of the weather pattern that will persist through the weekend.

An upper trough will dig southwards over western North America through the weekend; this will support a prolonged southerly flow at the surface while disturbances eject northeast across the region over the next few days.

Humid Weather Arrives This Weekend

The southerly winds at the surface will draw heat and humidity northwards through the weekend. Daytime highs won’t be excessive through the weekend, likely in the mid-20s, but the region will likely see its first surge of humid conditions.

The humidity will be comfortable today with dew points in the low teens, but more humid conditions will quickly develop on Saturday. Dew point values will climb into the mid- to upper teens on Saturday, then hover in the 16 to 20 °C range overnight Saturday, then increase towards 20 °C ahead of a cold front on Sunday. As the cold front sweeps through on Sunday afternoon, drier air will sweep into the region and bring relief.

The humidity will keep temperatures warm on Saturday night with overnight lows in the 18 to 22 °C range across many parts of southern Manitoba.

Stormy Conditions Possible

Weather-wise, there will be several chances for stormy weather through the weekend. The first disturbance will be a weak area of low pressure that pushes into southern Manitoba tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the second half of the night into Saturday morning.

The activity will taper off on Saturday afternoon, then another disturbance will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Saturday evening and overnight. Sunday will be more settled, but there will be a low chance of showers or thunderstorms with the cold front as it sweeps east.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start unsettled as the deep upper trough remains over western North America. Waves of rain and thunderstorms will be possible across southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday, then more settled conditions will move in for the middle of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Unsettled Week Leads to Warm Weekend

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Winnipeg will see a few more days of unsettled conditions, but the weather will settle heading into the weekend as temperatures climb into the upper 20s.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday June 12, 2024
A sharp warm front will move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

To start things off today, showers that moved in overnight will continue to track east out of the region. There may be a few sunny breaks this morning, but more cloud will spread into the region for midday. An upper low moving into the province this afternoon will destabilize things and bring a chance for a few showers or thundershowers. Temperatures will climb to a high in the low 20s with morning southerlies easing followed by moderate westerlies picking up to 40 gusting 60 km/h in the afternoon.

The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures dipping down to around 10 °C as winds ease. There may be a low chance for a few passing showers overnight.

On Wednesday, another low developing over the western Prairies will push a warm front across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid-20s in Winnipeg and other areas along and south of the front, while cloudier and cooler temperatures stick around for areas north. Heading into the afternoon, though, this front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. This feature will bring higher levels of energy to the region to fuel thunderstorms; MLCAPE — mixed-layer CAPE, a measure of energy available for a thunderstorm to use — will climb to around 1,000 J/kg and be coupled with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer wind shear. These values will combine to bring a risk of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms to southern Manitoba on Wednesday afternoon.

This activity will taper off heading into the night, though isolated showers could linger into the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures will dip down into the low teens.

On Thursday, an upper low will track across southern Manitoba. It will bring temperatures back down to the low 20s in Winnipeg along with mixed skies and a chance of showers. Skies will clear up on Thursday night with temperatures heading down into the low teens again.

Long Range Outlook

The weather will finally settle down on Friday with sunnier skies as an area of high pressure crosses the province. Warmer air will begin building into the region on Friday with daytime highs climbing back into the mid-20s.

A deep southerly flow will develop for the weekend, ushering more heat and moisture northwards. This will help push temperatures into the mid- to upper-20s with dew points rising into the mid-teens. While not anything that will feel overly humid or sticky, the humidity will be more noticeable than it has for most of the year so far.

Unfortunately, this push of warmer weather looks likely to bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for multiple waves of showers or thunderstorms to push across southern Manitoba.

Cooler, more settled conditions are likely to start next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.