Mild and Settled

This week will start out mild, with little in the way of active weather.

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NAM model predicted 500mb winds showing a slack flow through Southern Manitoba

A relatively stagnant flow will prevail over Manitoba for much of this week as the main storm track remains well to our south. This will give us seasonably mild temperatures and little if any precipitation.

Monday
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Mainly sunny
-2°C / -16°C
Tuesday
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Mainly sunny. Chance of flurries overnight.
-1°C / -8°C
Wednesday
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Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.
-4°C / -18°C

Monday and Tuesday

Monday will be a pleasant day, with temperatures in the low minus single digits in most areas. There may be a few readings up near the zero degree mark in localized patches. There will be a light to moderate south wind through the day, but it won’t be particularly noticeable in most urbanized areas.

Tuesday will be almost identical to Monday, with temperatures once again generally around or just below zero. There may be patches of fog in Southern Manitoba again on Tuesday morning, but they will dissipate with daytime heating in the morning. The south wind from Monday will die off for the most part, making it a non-factor. A passing weather system may bring us some light snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but accumulations will be small.

Wednesday

As that system passes by on Wednesday morning, a weak cold front will go through, dropping temperatures slightly. This won’t prompt any kind of significant cool-down, but it will switch the wind to a slightly brisker northerly flow. Temperatures won’t change much however, with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

In the longer range there is little to talk about. It appears we’ll cool down a bit towards week’s end, but otherwise models show no real trends over the next 7-10 days. No significant warm-ups are in the forecast, nor are there are major weather systems in the forecast. Unfortunately, this also means there is still no sign of spring…but at least there’s no sign of a nasty winter pattern returning either.

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

It’ll be a great weekend to get out and enjoy outdoor activities as we see little in the way of weather and seasonal temperatures.

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-7°C / -14°C
Saturday

Mainly sunny.
-7°C / -14°C
Sunday

Becoming cloudy, chance of patchy flurries.
-6°C / -10°C

There isn’t much to say about the next few days; today and tomorrow will be pleasant with clouds slowly clearing out and daytime highs near –7°C. Overnight lows will sit around –14°C for the next couple nights. There will be increasing cloudiness as a warm front approaches on Sunday bringing with it a slight chance of some patchy flurries and a high temperature around –6°C. The overnight low on Sunday will only be –10°C as warmer air moves in.

Next week looks to be off to a very pleasant start with above-normal daytime highs of about –5°C and no significant weather expected through the first half of the week. Long-range models hint that we may cool down back to seasonal or just below seasonal temperatures for the second half of the week.

Have a great weekend and get out there and enjoy the nice weather!

A Return To Seasonal Weather

After a surprisingly cold day yesterday, we’ll be quickly returning to seasonal temperatures over the next couple days with little weather to worry about.

12hr. QPF valid Thursday at 18Z

12 hour precipitation accumulation from the RDPS model valid near lunch time on Thursday. The RDPS is forecasting roughly 1–3cm of snow over Western Manitoba as a cold trough lingers over the area.
Wednesday

Increasing cloud.
-17°C / -20°C

Some cloud will push in today as another disturbance begins to push into the region but our highs will still remain below normal, sitting at about –17°C for most of the Red River Valley. Winds will remain fairly light out of the south through the day. Temperatures will drop only a few degrees tonight to about –20°C thanks to lingering cloud cover.

Thursday

Thursday

Becoming cloudy.
-10°C / -15°C

We’ll see a return to normal temperatures Thursday as warmer air continues to work it’s way into Manitoba. Highs will sit near –10°C under a mix of sun and clouds. The cloud will be from a system to our west which is not expected to impact the Red River Valley but will bring some light snow to southwestern Manitoba. Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight as we drop to –15°C.

Friday

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-9°C / -13°C

Friday will once again bring a mix of sun and cloud. Almost a carbon copy of the day before, our daytime high should get up to around –9°C. Temperatures will drop to only about –13°C on Friday night as we head into a pleasant weekend with seasonal temperatures of around –8°C expected and little chance of snow.

Enjoy the return to seasonal temperatures and get out there and enjoy Festival du Voyageur or go for a skate down on the river! If you didn’t see it yesterday, be sure to check out our special post yesterday summarizing the Louis Riel Day blizzard.

Special: Louis Riel Day 2013 Blizzard

Louis Riel Day was marked this year by a significant blizzard that brought much of the Red River Valley to a standstill. While snowfall was relatively light, with only 5–10cm reported in most localities (although a few pockets of 10–15cm did exist through the Southern portion of the Red River Valley), strong northerly winds that gusted as high as 70–80km/h produced blowing snow that gave whiteout conditions through most of the Valley.

Warm Front on Sunday, February 17

This system was marked by a warm frontal passage on Sunday near noon. Strong southerly winds brought local blowing snow to the region as an area of precipitation blossomed along the warm front. Here in Winnipeg, the precipitation fell as ice pellets first before switching to snow. Further south, a little deeper into the warm air, moderate band of freezing rain developed, coating Steinbach, as well as Highway 1 East, Highway 52 and Highway 59 in a layer of ice.

Freezing Rain in Steinbach 1

Freezing rain accumulating in Steinbach. Credit: @andrewpenner78

After this band went through, then winds slowly died off and we were able to enjoy a relatively nice afternoon. Near Steinbach, however, there were reports of numerous cars in the ditch due to “skating-rink”-like road conditions.

Cold Front and Blizzard, Sunday/Monday February 17/18

The cold front associated with this system passed through Winnipeg between 6–7PM CST; winds switched from southerly to calm to northerly and cloud ceilings rapidly dropped to 300–400 feet and a few hours of freezing drizzle happened in the low-level mixing immediately behind the cold front. By 10:30, winds began to pick up and the freezing drizzle switched over to snow. By midnight, visibilities had dropped to ½SM and would stay there or worse until roughly noon on Monday. To our south, conditions remained practically a white-out for an additional 6–7 hours, with visibilities not lifting above ¾SM until 7PM CST as sustained winds of 50–60km/h battered the area.

24 Hour Rainfall Accumulations

24 Hour Precipitation Accumulations

In total, around 3–6cm fell in Winnipeg, with areas on the south side of the city receiving nearly twice that of the central/northern portion. South of Winnipeg, snowfall amounts were appropriately higher:

  • Winnipeg: 3–6cm
  • Morden: 8cm
  • Morris: 10cm
  • Pinawa: 8cm
  • Steinbach: 11–13cm

As winds abated, colder air began working into the region. The temperatures have been on a downward trend all the way from Monday morning to the time of publishing this; temperatures are beginning to level off at –27°C.

Impacts

Twitter was a great source of information for what was happening during this event; between weather reports flooding in on the MBstorm hashtag and immediate communication about road conditions, it was relatively easy to get a grip on the significance of this system.

Some pictures came in early on Sunday as the band of freezing rain pushed through Steinbach:

Freezing Rain in Steinbach 2

Freezing rain accumulation on a car in Steinbach. Credit: @andrewpenner78

As the winds picked up, blowing snow quickly became the predominant impact over the Red River Valley:

Snow Drifts in Niverville

Snow drifts rapidly growing in Niverville. Credit: @jim_311

Some truly impressive images came out of Winnipeg Beach on Monday morning:

Snow Drifts in Winnipeg Beach

Massive snow drifts in Winnipeg Beach. Credit: @annhogie

Massive Snow Drifts in Winnipeg Beach

Massive snow drifts in Winnipeg Beach. Credit: @annhogie

Massive Snow Drifts in Winnipeg Beach

Massive snow drifts in Winnipeg Beach. Credit: @annhogie

Conditions on highways were fairly brutal on Monday:

Blowing snow on Highway 311

Blowing snow on MB Highway 311. Credit: @jim_311

Blowing snow Near Emerson, MB

Blowing snow in Emerson, MB.

Even within cities in the southern Red River Valley, conditions got quite bad:

Blowing snow in Winkler, MB on Monday morning.

Blowing snow in Winkler, MB on Monday morning.

Many highways were closed for this event:

  • Highway 16 from Hwy. 50 to Hwy. 466
  • Highway 1 West from Portage to Winnipeg
  • Highway 75 from Winnipeg to the US Border; I–29 from the US Border to Grand Forks, ND
  • Highway 5 from Neepawa up to St. Rose.

Numerous traffic accidents occurred as well, keeping the RCMP quite busy:

  • A 10-car pileup occurred in St. Francois Xavier that involved several semi-trucks. No injuries.
  • 3 semi-trailer trucks collided on Highway 1 west of PR 332.
  • Two semis smashed through road barricades in Headingly. A police cruiser was damaged by debris but nobody was hurt.

Perhaps most tragically, one man died in this storm. A 54-year old man was found dead near Landmark. He had left his car after driving into the ditch on road 45N. The road was slippery and visibility was near-zero at the time.

This was a very significant blizzard that had huge impacts on the Red River Valley. Fortunately, residents had plenty of time to prepare as Environment Canada issued special weather statements on Friday morning addressing the potential for a significant blizzard and carried them through to the issuing of warnings.

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p>If you have any pictures you’d like to share, leave them in the comments below or send them to aweathermoment at shaw dot ca.