Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Frosty to Start the Week

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We’ll be in for a couple of chilly, perhaps you could even say frosty, days to start this week. Cool daytime highs and sub-zero nighttime lows are on tap.

GEM-REG 3hr. Precipitation Accumulation

Some light lake effect showers (shown in blue) are expected to develop on Monday as cold air flows over the relatively warm lakes winnipeg and manitoba.

After a rather chilly Monday morning, temperatures won’t make a dramatic recovery for the afternoon. Daytime highs on the first day of the week are expected to barely make the double digits in most areas, with highs generally in the 9-12C range expected. A breezy north wind and perhaps a couple of lake-effect showers won’t make the day any more pleasant. Tuesday night should be another cool one in Southern Manitoba. However, it appears frost will be isolated to areas around and east of the Red River Valley as some warmer air moving in from the west will keep temperatures above zero overnight in Western Manitoba. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be an improvement from Monday, though except for South-Western Manitoba where 20C values are expected, temperatures will generally remain stuck in the mid teens.

Yet another cold front will swing through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ushering in another cool airmass to end the week. It appears high temperatures will be relegated to the teens from Wednesday through Friday. There appears to be slim odds of any significant precipitation this week, though we may at least get some measureable rain later in the week as a few strong impulses rotate through the region.

NAEFS Ensemble 8-14 day outlook

The NAEFS ensemble doesn’t give a strong indication of what type of weather we’ll see moving forward…

At this point the long range forecast looks fairly status quo. We’ll see some cooler than normal days and some warmer than normal days, but in general the pattern for the next week or two generally looks to be near normal on average. However, there will certainly be a fall feel to the air as nighttime temperatures regular drop down to the freezing mark and daytime highs stay close to the average high for mid-September of 18C.

Mainly Seasonal With A Chance of 30°C

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We’ll see fairly typical weather for this time of year across Winnipeg and the Red River Valley with a big exception being tomorrow: with southerly winds and a big upper ridge moving across the region, there’s a good chance we’ll see temperatures in the upper 20’s, perhaps even breaking 30°C on Saturday afternoon.

500mb Wind Speed

500mb wind speed from the GEM-REG for midday today depicting the upper ridge that is moving into the province.

We’ll see plenty of sunshine today as the aforementioned upper ridge begins working it’s way into our region. Temperatures will be able to climb up much higher than yesterday, where a cool air mass combined with clouds limited our temperatures. We’ll see a high near 25°C today, although it will be a bit of a climb as we dig out of a rather chilly morning.

On Saturday, the upper ridge will move across the province, bringing with it 850mb temperatures in the 17-18°C range. Winds will be out of the south, not the southwest, so we won’t see any significant downslope effect to help our temperatures out. As a result, we’ll see widespread highs near 28°C with a few locales getting as high as 29 or 30°C by the late afternoon.

A powerful cold front will dive southwards through the Red River Valley on Saturday evening which will usher cool Arctic air in from the north. 850mb temperatures will plummet to nearly 0°C for Sunday which will hold our daytime high to the mid-teens, most likely below the seasonal normal high of 18°C, under cloudy skies.

Cooler air will continue to push southwards into the beginning of next week, with 850mb temperatures dropping below 0°C on Monday and remaining over the region for much of the week. This will likely result in daytime highs in the mid-teens and overnight lows in the low single-digits for much of the week under more cloud than sun and a chance of showers on and off through the week.

Strong Winds Blast Southern Manitoba

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Strong winds will blast across Southern Manitoba today as a very powerful low pressure system crosses Northern Manitoba. The winds will also usher in an unseasonably cool air mass that will give us a very chilly night before the upper ridge begins to rebound into our region.

850mb Temperatures for Thursday morning from the GEM-REG

850mb temperatures for Thursday morning from the GEM-REG. A cold trough of 850mb temperatures between 0-1°C will rest over the Red River Valley and Whiteshell, contributing to unseasonably cold overnight lows.

A powerful low pressure system with a central pressure of approximately 984mb is pushing across Northern Manitoba and will bring a very strong pressure gradient across the Red River Valley today that will usher in 50-60km/h winds with gusts as high as 80km/h. This system has a history of producing very strong winds; on Monday it brought widespread winds in excess of 100km/h to Southern Alberta and yesterday it brought winds between 80-110km/h through Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba.

The winds will pick up in the Red River Valley this morning and we’ll see several hours of fairly strong westerly winds. Unlike regions to our west that had to deal with the winds for a fairly prolonged period of time, the winds will move through the region fairly quickly as the low accelerates out of Northern Manitoba into Hudson Bay. As a result, winds should let up noticeably by the evening.

In behind this system, fairly cold air will sweep across the province. Across the Red River Valley, overnight lows will be kept a little warmer by some light winds expected to continue through the night. Through the Red River Valley, overnight lows will generally drop to 3-5°C tonight, however if any areas see the wind let up, it would certainly be possible to see overnight lows dip to 1-2°C under clear skies and calm winds. The most likely area for this to happen, though, is a little further east in the Whiteshell where the trees will help protect the surface from light synoptic winds.

Temperatures will return to seasonal on Thursday as an upper ridge begins to build eastwards across the Prairies. We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud across the Red River Valley with a very slight chance of a shower as warmer air begins to push into the region. Daytime highs should be near 19-20°C on Thursday with overnight lows on Thursday night once again rather chilly in the 4-6°C.

Warm air moves back in for the weekend, with plenty of sunshine and highs near 25°C on Friday and Saturday. Things look to cool off a bit on Sunday as another cold front passes through.

The Week Will Start Hot! Then Fizzle…

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This week will start out with some nice hot weather, but then rapidly cool off from there. Fall weather appears to be here to stay.

Temperatures are expected to reach the 30C mark in much of Southern Manitoba on Monday

The NAM model is predicting that temperatures will reach the low thirties in much of Southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday will be one of our last hot days of the year as temperatures climb up around the 30C mark in Southern Manitoba. However, the heat won’t last long, as a cold front will sweep through on Tuesday, bringing cooler weather for the rest of the week. Temperatures from Tuesday through Friday are expected to be fairly typical for mid-September, with values in the upper teens or lower twenties expected. No significant precipitation is expected for the first part of this week, though an odd shower is possible.

At this point most long-range models don’t give a clear picture for how September will proceed temperature-wise. For the most part is looks like we’ll see many normal weather, with some ups and downs here and there. A more interesting long-range weather feature to watch is the development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Most long-term forecasts are calling for the development of weak El Nino conditions in the central Pacific Ocean for this fall and winter. El Nino events tend to bring warmer and drier than normal weather to Western Canada. The stronger the El Nino is, the greater the chance we’ll see a warmer and drier than normal winter here in Southern Manitoba. As we move into winter you will no doubt be hearing more about this topic.