Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Cooler and Unsettled Conditions Ahead for Winnipeg

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A slow-moving low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures to southern Manitoba over the next few days. Along with cloudy skies, the low will also bring a chance of rain in the second half of the week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday September 13, 2022
A sprawling high pressure system will bring near-seasonal temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Cooler air is already on the way today behind a cold front that passed through overnight. Highs across the region will be considerably lower than yesterday’s 30 °C weather. Temperatures in southern Manitoba will climb into the upper teens today with northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. 

Cloud will begin to push into the region tonight as a slow-moving low pressure system pushes towards the Dakotas. Temperatures will dip back below 10 °C tonight as the winds ease and skies cloud over.

Beginning Wednesday, much of southern Manitoba — including Winnipeg — will see mostly cloudy skies that will persist right to the weekend. Temperatures will be very consistent through the rest of the week as well: highs will climb to the mid- to upper-teens and lows should sit in the low teens.

It should stay dry across the region on Wednesday, but conditions will grow more unsettled on Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers are likely across much of the region on Thursday, but may be patchy in coverage and sporadic in nature. Amounts by Thursday evening will be generally low, with most regions seeing jp to 5 to 10 mm of rain.

ECMWF Hi-Res 24-hr Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Friday September 16, 2022
Much of southern Manitoba will see rain on Thursday, however some uncertainty remains for the Trans-Canada Highway corridor for areas around Winnipeg and westwards.

The exceptions will be in western Manitoba and in southeastern Manitoba. In WestMan, 10 to 20 mm is possible due to upslope winds over the Duck Mountains and the Riding Mountains. This will depend on the rain pushing far enough northwards, which some models — like the above ECMWF output — don’t.  In the southeast corner of the province, up to 15 to 25 mm is possible as a more organized area of rain moves through that area. Some of that heavier rain may also fall over the southern Red River Valley, but that’s very uncertain right now.

The showers will ease on Thursday night, leaving just a few lingering showers across the region for Friday.

Winds will pick up out of the east to around 30 gusting 50 km/h on Wednesday, then gradually ease into the 20 to 30 km/h range as it shifts northerly over Thursday and Friday.

Long Range Outlook

The region will see mixed skies through the weekend as another low moves from the Dakotas towards NW Ontario. Highs will nudge towards the 20 °C mark, but some more rain is possible sometime later Saturday into Sunday as the low passes by the region.

Next week should bring near seasonal temperatures and a gradual clearing trend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 7 °C.

Seasonal Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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Winnipeg will see near seasonal temperatures for the next couple days behind the cold front that moved through yesterday. On Sunday, warmer weather will begin to push back into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Sunday September 11, 2022
Temperatures could drop a cool as the low single digits across southern Manitoba on Saturday night.

An upper trough will sit over Manitoba for the next couple days and bring seasonal temperatures to much of southern Manitoba. Winnipeg will see daytime highs today and tomorrow near the 20 °C mark, which is seasonal normal high for this time of year. Overnight lows will be cool, driven down by an area of high pressure moving into the area.  Overnight lows will dip into the upper single digits tonight, and could reach as low as 2 to 4 °C on the edges of the city on Saturday night. Areas near the centre of the city will likely stay a couple degrees warmer than that.

On Sunday, the upper pattern will shift and a more zonal flow along the apex of an upper ridge in the United States will develop. This will bring warmer air into the region and send daytime highs back into the mid-20s. Lows should climb back to around the 10 °C mark on Sunday night. Skies will stay mainly sunny through the day.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will continue to warm for Monday with highs in the upper 20s possible. A cold front will push through later Monday, ushering near-seasonal temperatures back into the region for the rest of the week. Skies will likely trend towards the mixed to cloudy side of things with the chance of showers developing mid-week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 7 °C.

Sunny, Hot Conditions Continue for A Couple More Days

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Upper ridging will continue to bring hot and mainly sunny conditions to southern Manitoba over the next couple days. On Thursday, a passing low pressure system will bring some cloud to the region along with a chance of showers. Behind it, seasonal temperatures will return for the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Thursday September 8, 2022
On Wednesday, a low pressure system in Saskatchewan will push another wave of warmer air eastwards towards Manitoba.

Winnipeg will see plenty of sun today and tomorrow as an upper ridge pushes over the region. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 20s with comfortable humidity levels. The wind will pick up out of the northwest into the 30 to 40 km/h range today as a very weak cold front pushes through the region. The wind will ease tonight, then pick back up out of the southeast on Wednesday as a renewed push of warm air begins.

A low pressure system will develop over southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday, then push northeastwards into central Manitoba overnight. As it heads east, it will drag a warm front into southern Manitoba through the night. An area of instability will develop ahead of the front heading into the evening and bring some cloudier conditions and a chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region overnight. The warmer air pushing into the region combined with persistent southerly winds will also keep overnight lows quite mild on Thursday night, only bottoming out in the upper teens.

The instability may linger into Thursday morning before a cold front pushes through. Temperatures should reach the mid-20s before northwesterly winds pick up behind the front.

The cloud cover will break up a bit on Thursday evening, but more cloud will linger through Friday as the northwest winds continue to usher cooler air into the region. Temperatures should reach a near-seasonal high around 20 °C on Friday.

Long Range Outlook

Cooler temperatures will stick around through the weekend with highs in the upper teens or low twenties. Fortunately, the sun will make a return both Saturday and Sunday.

Next week should bring seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures with what looks like a chance for showers mid-week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Cooler Weekend Ahead; Heat Returns Next Week

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The passage of a cold front last night has ushered a cooler air mass into the region. Temperatures will stay on the warm side of seasonal through the weekend, but the heat will intensify again heading into next week.

ECMW 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Friday September 2, 2022
Blustery northwest winds will cool temperatures back to seasonal values across southern Manitoba today.

The forecast for Winnipeg over the coming days is fairly quiet. A sprawling area of high pressure across the region will bring mainly sunny skies to the region over the next few days. Breezy northwest winds will keep highs in the low 20s today, but lighter southerlies on the weekend will allow highs back into the mid-20s. Dew points will stay comfortable over the coming days and lows will dip down close to the 10 °C mark.

A push of warmer air will finally reach the region on Sunday night. Overnight lows will be warmer in the mid- to upper teens. This warmer air will bring some cloud with it, but no rain is likely as it pushes in.

Long Range Outlook

Hot weather will persist through much of next week with daytime highs climbing to or just above the 30 °C mark. Dew points will stay comfortable, so the humidex values won’t be too much of an issue. Overnight lows will continue to hover in the upper teens, perhaps even close to 20 °C some nights. The region will be baking under mainly sunny skies right through most of the week.

By the end of the week, forecasts show a low pressure system pushing into the region. This will bring cloud, cooler temperatures, and a chance of thunderstorms or showers for the end of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.