The wonderful weather experienced on the weekend will continue into this week. Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal for the foreseeable future.

Figuring out just how warm it will get this week is a challenge. There is snow in some parts of Southern Manitoba and bare ground in other parts. Areas that are snow-free will be warmer than those regions that still have snow. Weather models haven’t handled temperature forecasts very well lately, making forecasting even more difficult. Based on the warm temperatures experienced this weekend it appears that most days this week will have high temperatures in the high single digits or low double digits. Toward the end of the week we may have a shot at mid to high double-digit temperatures if most of the snow has disappeared as expected. Due to all the melting snow this week fog will be possible on most days. The additional water vapour that is added to the air due to the snow melt provides the necessary ingredient for dense fog patches to develop. Luckily with the sun becoming increasingly strong most areas of fog should dissipate fairly quick after the sun comes out.

A number of records were broken over the weekend due to the usually warm temperatures that occured. More daily high temperature records will likely be broken almost every day this week as conditions remain warm.

In the longer range there is no sign of a colder pattern. Most forecasts show warm weather continuing for at least the next 10 days. However, bear in mind that Winnipeg averages 10cm of snow in April, so don’t count on completely smooth sailing into summer.

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Waterspout Makes Landfall in Hawaii

As Hawaii nears the end of its rainy season, very strong thunderstorms producing tornadoes over the Pacific Ocean made landfall on the islands this week, producing the first tornado to hit Hawaii in four years. On the morning of Friday March 9th, the tornado struck Kailua, one of the suburbs of Honolulu. From there, it moved inland for a mile-and-a-half before dissipating. There were no injuries associated with the tornado and only minor structural damage to a couple houses, where parts of roofs were torn off and windows damaged. Storm surveyors estimated the tornado to be an EF-0, with winds of 96km/h to 112km/h.

What was even more unusual to Hawaii with these thunderstorms is that they brought very large hailstones to the area, which is unheard of on the islands. The 30 minute hailstorm was described by Tom Birchard, a senior meteorologist at the National Weather Service (NWS) of Honolulu, as “unprecedented” and mentioned the three-inch hailstones are “likely record-breaking”.

With the thunderstorms being nearly stationary and rain rates reaching over 75mm/h during the course of the day, mudslides prompted officials to close the roads. Schools were also closed and flights cancelled out of Kauai because of the heavy rains.

Thankfully Hawaii’s stormy weather is forecast to clear this upcoming week with partly cloudy skies and steady temperatures of 25°C. The high pressure that created a blocking pattern will move off, allowing the low pressure system to leave Hawaii.

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With spring set to officially begin in just a few weeks it appears that spring-like weather is not far off either. It is safe to say that winter’s worst cold is behind us.

For the most part this week is expected to be warm in Southern Manitoba, but with some snow. Two low pressure systems will move across Southern Manitoba early in the week. One low will pass through on Monday and another one on Tuesday. The first system will be very weak and will drop less than 2cm of snow in most of Southern Manitoba on Monday. The second system on Monday night into Tuesday will be stronger, but the majority of the snow is expected to pass through Western Manitoba and up into the Interlake, avoiding the more heavily populated parts of Manitoba. However, the Tuesday system may still generate amounts of 2-4cm in places like Winnipeg and Brandon if it tracks as currently expected. Parts of Southern Manitoba closer to the International border can expect to see 2cm of snow or less from Monday night through Tuesday. Despite the fact that Monday and Tuesday will be a bit snowy temperatures will remain quite mild. Highs on both days should be near the zero mark in most areas. As Tuesday’s weather system departs it will pull down a bit of colder air from the north. As such expect a northerly wind to develop later on Tuesday causing temperatures to drop off for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The second half of the week also looks to be rather mild. As alluded to earlier, Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week as we deal with the minor push of cold air caused by the low pressure system on Tuesday. By Thursday and Friday temperatures are expected to rise back to or above zero degrees, hopefully melting some of the snow that accumulated earlier in the week.

In the medium-range weather models are showing above-normal weather conditions (temperatures) developing in Southern Manitoba. If you read last week’s Monday post you will have realized that the long-range forecast for March was a bit unclear. In more recent days many medium range models and forecasts have begun to reveal the potential for warm conditions through early to mid March. The Climate Prediction Center graphic above illustrates this trend. However, we still don’t have a good understanding of how March will end. Although if you believe in the old March sayings “In like a lamb, out like a lion” or “In like a lion, out like a lamb” this March should end very nicely considering the nasty snowstorm late last week.

A Deadly Week in the US: Damaging Tornadoes

Tornado Outbreak: February 28 – 29, 2012

Disastrous cold fronts associated with low pressure systems barreled through many parts the United States last week. Areas that were hit the hardest include the Midwest, the Appalachian region, the Southeast and Southern Plains causing widespread destruction and over 50 deaths. As the system emerged from the Rockies, the cold front brought the necessary trigger to lift the moist, warm air. Early on, the Southern Plains were impacted with cold-core tornadoes in Nebraska and stronger storms throughout eastern Kansas where multiple weak tornadoes were reported, as well as an EF-2 tornado that destroyed most of the town of Harveyville, Kansas. Thankfully everyone was accounted for and only injuries were reported with the Harveyville twister.

As the cold front continued to push east into the night of Tuesday, February 28th, it spawned more dangerous tornadoes throughout Missouri and in southern Illinois. The strongest tornado produced, rated EF-4, struck the town of Harrisburg, Illinois, killing nine people and destroying entire city blocks at one time. As the cold front pushed east, even more tornadoes spun up through Kentucky and Tennessee on the 29th, injuring more people in the towns of Clarkson and Hodgenville, Kentucky. The two day ordeal brought in about 300 wind damage reports and over 50 tornado reports, spanning over nine states.

Tornado Outbreak: March 2 – 3, 2012

The destruction did not end there however. Another low pressure system had moved over Michigan – it spanned from southern Ontario all the way down to eastern Texas. The best parameters for severe storms were situated in the Midwest, around the western foothills of the Appalachians and through the US Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had issued some of these areas as ‘high risk’ for Friday, March 2nd – the highest tier of risk for severe weather the SPC can issue.

Supercells were popping up all over RADARs as the afternoon wore on, and the ingredients were in place for long-tracked tornadoes. Many tornadoes ripped through towns on this day, including West Liberty, Kentucky (pop. 3000), where the town was levelled by an EF-3 – not one building left untouched.

Some of the hardest hit areas, Kentucky and Tennessee, were expecting freezing rain following the cold front.

Here are some storm statistics regarding the outbreak:

• A storm near Wilmore, Kentucky, was moving at speeds up to 137km/h.
• 39 people, across five states, died from tornadoes associated with this storm – over 300 injured in Kentucky alone.
• Winds up to 280km/h accompanied the Henryville, Indiana, tornado (EF-4) and the tornado stayed on the ground for over 80km.
• At one point, four million people were within 40km of a tornado.
• Three states issued a state of emergency.

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