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Summer-Like Weather Set to Return

April 27, 2012April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

After a few days with below-normal daytime highs, a southerly flow is setting up to return early-summer warmth to Southern Manitoba; however, an upper trough will bring wet conditions to portions of Southwest Manitoba

Total precipitation from Thursday evening through Saturday evening. Notice the sharp drop-off in precipitation amounts near the Red River Valley.

Under the influence of a strong arctic surface ridge, temperatures in Winnipeg have been 4 to 5°C below normal the past fews days. Fortunately, the low pressure system in Hudson Bay that has been blocking the ridge from moving out of our area is beginning to move off as it becomes caught up in a powerful storm system forecast to bring upwards of 50mm to portions of the Maritimes, including New Brunswick and Newfoundland.

However, as the ridge moves off, a large upper trough will continue its trek into the Prairies, pushing into Saskatchewan over the next 36 hours. Multiple shortwaves are embedded in the trough, with two main ones to watch:

One shortwave is lifting northwards from British Columbia and will track eastwards near the 60th parallel.
A second shortwave will track along the base of the trough into Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota before becoming cut-off and stalling out.

For today, a large area of precipitation will link the two shortwaves, but weaken later in the day as they move further apart and the overall lift weakens a little bit. As the line of precipitation moves eastwards into Manitoba, it will also have to battle with the dry air flowing out from the high over the eastern portion of the province. This should keep most of the rain out of the Red River Valley, with only a slight chance of a passing sprinkle this afternoon and overnight right along the Western Escarpment.

We should see mostly sun today and tomorrow, with daytime highs near 12°C. Sunday will mark the beginning of the big warm up as the southern shortwave, after stalling out over Eastern Montana for a day or two, heads our way. We should see temperatures climb into the upper teens on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds before the system moves in overnight.

For next week, Moday looks showery but then skies clear out and we’ll have beautiful weather for most of the week with highs near 20°C.

Cool Weather Returns

April 25, 2012April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

After enjoying a couple days of above-normal temperatures, a powerful low pressure system backing into Hudson Bay will drive a cold front southwards across Southern Manitoba today, bringing with it cooler weather.

850mb GEM-Reg Temperature Analysis valid 15Z this morning.

The cold front will sweep through Southern Manitoba late this morning, with winds picking up from the north and increasing to 30-40km/h. Scattered showers will develop along the front as it pushes through the interlake, so most regions in the Red River Valley have a chance of seeing some rain later this morning. It won’t last long, though, and cooler air will stream in on the backside limiting our daytime high in Winnipeg to around 11°C. Skies will clear quickly tonight as an Arctic ridge builds in and helps our overnight low drop to -4°C.

The aforementioned low backing into Hudson Bay will become captured today and will block the eastwards advancement of the Arctic ridge which means, unfortunately, that we’ll be under the influence of the ridge and its outflow for the next few days. Thursday will see sunny skies with a daytime high of only around 9°C, and Friday will be much of the same with a high just a couple degrees warmer. By Saturday it looks like the ridge will start to move off and although the day will still be cool, a southerly flow will begin to bring warmer weather back to our region.

Warm Start to the Week

April 23, 2012April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

This week will start out on the warm side as a high pressure ridge edges into Manitoba. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are expected to reach or exceed 20C, which will mark the first occurrence of a 20 degree reading since April 6.

A large ridge centred over Western North America will bring warm weather to Southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday

Highs on Monday should be around 20C in most of Southern Manitoba. Skies will range from mainly sunny to mainly cloudy, with Winnipeg and the Red River Valley tending to be on the cloudier side and Western Manitoba on the sunnier end. As such South-Western Manitoba will likely be a bit warmer than the rest of Southern Manitoba. Tuesday will feature much the same weather as Monday with temperatures once again climbing up to around the twenty degree mark over Southern Manitoba. Skies on Tuesday will mostly likely be a mixture of sun and cloud, preventing temperatures from climbing much above 20 degrees. Should Monday or Tuesday be sunnier than currently expected you can easily add a couple degrees onto the temperatures listed above.

20 degree temperatures are expected in Southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday

A cold front will slice through Manitoba on Wednesday, dropping our temperatures back down to normal values. Highs on Wednesday are expected to hover in the low teens in Southern Manitoba, while on Thursday temperatures will remain stuck in the single digits. A recovery in temperatures in expected to begin on Friday and stretch into the weekend.

No significant precipitation is expected this week, although some weak shower activity might form as a low pressure system and associated cold front pass through on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Elsewhere in Weather News

Australian Rains

As Australia’s summer transitions into fall, heavy rains have pummelled its capital, Sydney, and surrounding regions resulting in flash floods throughout the area.

Rainfall map from this past week in NSW, including Sydney’s approximate location. (Source: Bureau of Met.)

Between Monday, April 16th and Wednesday, April 18th, the New South Whales (NSW) region was hit hardest from the flooding where some areas received between 150mm-200mm of rain. The flash floods were triggered by a number of towns receiving rainfall of 40mm/h over a couple hours, and the fact that the soil was saturated in those areas due to heavy rainfall that occurred over the past month.

Parking lot swamped by water. (Source: Seven Network)

Emergency crews were called to assist residents whose cars were overtaken by water and also to help those trapped in their homes as water levels rose in a matter of hours. Utility crews were also busy due to more than a thousand people losing power.

Video of car struggling to cross flooded roads. (Source: mascott1963)

Unfortunately, more rain was forecast to fall this weekend as another slow moving trough/cold front stretched across the whole region. No additional flash flooding was reported with this latest rainfall, however more rainy days are expected to hit the coast this coming week which increases the risk of further flooding in the region where another 15mm-25mm are expected through to Wednesday.

This event comes just two months after the region located north of NSW, Queensland, was hit hard by flooding (brought to you on February 27th post). Australia’s eastern coast has seen its fair share of dangerous flash flooding already this year.

Elsewhere in Weather News has been provided by Matt

Saturday Rain Followed By A Warm Up

April 20, 2012April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

After a pleasant Friday, Southern Manitoba will see a showery Saturday as one last system pushes through the province before a large-scale shift in the upper atmosphere brings above-normal weather back to our neck of the woods.

500mb Wind Speed map from the NAM depicting the strong jet core associated with a low forecast to track across Southern Mantioba.

For today, the Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see sunny skies with milder temperatures, courtesy of the cold trough that we’ve been under the influence of the past few days finally moving off towards the east. We should see a daytime high of about 12°C today, which is right around normal for this time of year.

Tonight, clouds will roll in ahead of a system that is sliding across the Prairies. Showers will push into Southwest Manitoba this evening along a NW-SE line aligned with the lift associated with a strong 90kt jet streak at 500mb. This line will push eastwards through the night and enter into the RRV by morning. The showers should weaken and spread out into a band of light rain by the time it reaches Winnipeg. Although the rain won’t be particularly heavy, the system looks to be relatively slow moving, and because of that it seems like most areas in Southern Manitoba will see between 2-5mm of rain. We’ll refine rainfall amounts in the comments a little closer to the event.

The rain clears out on Saturday evening and clouds will scatter overnight. Skies should completely clear by Sunday afternoon through the RRV leaving us with sunshine and a high near 15°C.

For next week, temperatures will remain in the low teens as an upper ridge begins to build into the Southern Prairies, however we’ll have to wait and see how much sun we’ll have. The potential for several powerful systems to track across the Prairies exists; we’ll be sure to keep an eye on whether or not these systems will impact Winnipeg and the Red River Valley!

A Weather Moment

Author: Brad