Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Dry, Mild Weather for the Work Week

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The Red River Valley will finally escape from the grip of the last few weeks’ weather. Dry, sunny, and warmer conditions will develop over the region this week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday May 5, 2022
Much warmer weather will push into the southern Prairies this week as an upper ridge builds across the region.

Southern Manitoba will see beautiful conditions over the next several days as spring finally arrives across the region. An upper ridge will build over the Prairies this week, bringing plenty of sunshine and dry weather to the area. Temperatures will finally head back towards seasonal values over the next several days as well. Highs will reach the low teens today in Winnipeg, then climb into the upper teens tomorrow, and close to the 20 °C mark for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will also climb through the week from close to freezing tonight to near 10 °C by Friday night.

Not only will it be dry, sunny, and warm, but winds will also be fairly light through the week. They’ll pick up out of the south on Thursday into the 20–30 km/h range, ease overnight, then return near 30 km/h on Friday.

All in all, no complaints for the rest of the work week. Open your windows and enjoy the long-awaited arrival of spring!

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like things will stay dry beyond that. Heading into the weekend, a deep upper trough will dig over western North America as an upper low builds into the Pacific Northwest. This will send a series of systems northwards through the eastern Prairies. Cloudier conditions will move in for the weekend, but for now, it looks like Saturday and Sunday will stay dry. Most models suggest the pattern change comes Sunday night.

The first of a series of convectively-driven systems is forecasted to move out of North Dakota into Manitoba on Sunday night. This system could bring 25–50 mm of rain to portions of southern Manitoba, but where exactly is unclear at this point. Some models have it as a slower moving system over the southwest corner of the province, others have it slightly more progressive over the Red River Valley.

A second system will follow that up just 24–36 hours later, but there’s currently a lot of uncertainty with where it will track. Certainly something to keep an eye on as the weekend — and the flood crest — approaches the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 3 °C.

More Rain Heading to the Red River Valley

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Another low pressure system in the Dakotas will send waves of rain into Southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 18Z Saturday April 30, 2022
A potent low pressure system will move through South Dakota on Saturday.

The first wave of rain is developing over North Dakota today and will push across the border later this afternoon. This rain will continue north through the night, likely with some embedded thunderstorms as well. For many areas, the rain will be showery and transient; the most consistent rain will likely develop along a line that runs from the Pilot Mound region northeastwards across the southern Interlake. By Saturday morning, 25–50 mm is likely near the U.S. border with 15–25 mm further north near the Trans-Canada Highway.

Rain will continue on Saturday, fairly consistently along the SW-NE line from Pilot Mound Area through the Interlake. Southeast of this, a few showers are possible in the Red River Valley, followed by a more organized surge of rain midday through the afternoon. A few thunderstorms could again be seen with this area of rain.

The rain will turn more showery late Saturday and begin tapering off from west to east. A few showers will likely persist Saturday night over the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba.

RDPS 48 hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z Sunday May 1, 2022
Much of southern Manitoba will see notable rainfall accumulations from Friday night through Sunday.

Drier weather will gradually work into the region on Sunday. By the end of this system, many parts of south-central and eastern Manitoba will receive, in total, 25–50 mm of rain. The heaviest rain will likely occur from Pilot Mound eastwards into the Red River Valley with accumulations of 40–50 mm. Winnipeg will also see substantial rain with 25–40 mm likely. A secondary axis of heavier rain will also extend along that SW-NE line across the southern Interlake with generally 25–35 mm along it.

Long Range Outlook

Fortunately, this looks to be the end of the wet weather for a while. Long-term forecasts all agree: next week will be dry with a dramatic rise in temperatures. The sun should reappear for Tuesday, and daytime highs will climb closer to 20 °C by the end of the week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 2 °C.

A Slow Crawl Towards Seasonal Conditions Begins; More Rain Possible Next Weekend

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Southern Manitoba will see a very slow shift back towards more seasonal spring weather over the next week. Another storm system will impact the region this weekend, but its impact isn’t quite clear yet.

ECMWF 10m Winds and MSLP Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday April 26, 2022
A sprawling Arctic high will influence southern Manitoba right through the week.

The weather over the next few days will be dominated by a stubborn Arctic high lingering over the region. It sits on top of the province today, then gradually shift into NW Ontario over the next 36 hours. Southern Manitoba will continue to see a ridge of high pressure hang back across the region. This ridging will stick around until a developing storm system in the United States finally weakens it at the end of the week.

Its presence will be a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, it will keep temperatures cool over the region. On the other, it will help deflect some weaker lows over the western Prairies away. This will keep conditions dry through the rest of the work week; a welcome outcome considering the flooding in the wake of the weekend’s storm.

For Winnipeg, this will mean that the city sees a fair amount of sunshine over the next couple days. Today’s high will be a few degrees above freezing, then increasing into the 5–10 °C range on Wednesday.

Thursday will bring some cloud to the region as an upper frontal wave pulls away from a low over the northwestern Prairies. There could be a few showers that skirt the region later in the day, but amounts would likely be very light

Skies will continue to be cloudy on Friday, this time due to another significant storm system taking shape in the United States.

Daytime highs will likely hover close to 10 °C both Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will increase from several degrees below zero tonight to the mid-single digits by Friday.

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, it looks like southern Manitoba could be in for more rain to end the week. This system — a sort of “Utah Low” — won’t have quite as much energy as the weekend’s Colorado Low. It will still be a substantial storm in its own right, though.

There is, unlike the previous two storms, significant uncertainty with this one. Forecast models have been flopping around, placing the precipitation right across southern Manitoba, keeping it almost entirely south of the border, or shifting it into SE Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.

So at this point, it’s still too early to say with much skill where the rain is going to show up. But there is pretty good agreement that this system will be capable of producing 25–50 mm of rain somewhere in the southeastern Prairies.

ECMWF 10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 12Z Sunday May 1, 2022
While there’s disagreement about where the rain will fall with this weekend’s system, all forecast models are producing a moderately strong low pressure system over the Dakotas and Minnesota.

If that rain did fall over the Red River Valley, it would be a significant concern. Not only is the ground very saturated in most areas, it would also coincide with the second crest of the Red River travelling northwards.

Should the rain fall further west, that would also be a concern. It would likely impact many areas that have seen substantial snowfall amounts over the past two weekends. This would help accelerate the melt and could present flooding risks in some of those areas as well.

So probably not a welcome storm in any situation. We’ll keep a close eye on it as it develops and have a full forecast later in the week.

If you have a property that experienced flooding issues this past weekend, it may be prudent to plan possible flood mitigation efforts in case this storm ends up impacting your area again.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 1 °C.

Cool Weather, More Precipitation Ahead for Southern Manitoba

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Cool weather continues this week with more precipitation in the forecast. Another batch of snow is heading to the province on Wednesday, followed by another winter storm on the weekend.

RDPS Precipitation Type & Rate Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday April 20, 2022
More snow is forecast across southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s sunshine will be gone today as more cloud builds into the region. Warmer air moving in aloft will bring the cloud, but the southeasterly wind will keep it cooler near the ground. Winnipeg will see a high just above freezing today.

Some light snow will push into the region tonight ahead of the warm front. The snow should start sometime after 7PM and continue into the overnight period. Winnipeg should see around 2–4 cm by Wednesday morning with lesser amounts to the south. Lows will stay mild with the approach of warmer air; Winnipeg should dip to around 0 °C overnight.

On Wednesday morning, a second area of snow will blossom along the cold front and upper jet in North Dakota. This will push into the Red River Valley mid-morning, bringing a second batch of snow to the region. The precipitation should ease later in the afternoon with another 2–5 cm accumulation in the affected areas. The above-freezing temperatures will help compact and melt some of the snowfall as the day goes on. Winds will ease through the day as the low centre moves across the province. Today’s high will reach the low single digits.

Temperatures will dip down to around freezing again on Wednesday night. A few flurries will are likely as well. Northerly winds will pick up into the 30–40 km/h range overnight on the backside of the departing low.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday April 21, 2022
Cooler temperatures will continue on Thursday over the snow-covered ground in southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

A ridge of high pressure will slide into the province on Thursday, bringing gradually easing winds and some sunny breaks to the region. A high again in the low single digits will continue the below-normal temperature trend in the region. Temperatures will dip to around the freezing mark again on Thursday night with cloudy skies.

Long Range Outlook

Beginning on Friday, the region will start to be affected by a strengthening Colorado Low. While the low centre will stay well south in the United States, precipitation will move into the province already on Friday.

There’s a lot of uncertainty as to what exactly will fall over the province. The Canadian long-range model is trending warmer with most of the precipitation falling as rain. The American models are slightly cooler and trend towards a snow/ice pellet solution. The ECMWF model, on the other hand, sits somewhere in the middle. It has a mainly rain event for the Red River Valley, southern Interlake, and southeast corner of the province. For southwestern Manitoba, the Parkland, and northern Interlake, it produces a mix of ice pellets and snow.

This will be a multi-day system that impacts

ECMWF 2m Temperature and MSLP Forecast valid 18Z Saturday April 23, 2022
Weather models agree that a potent Colorado Low will lift into the Dakotas this weekend, bringing another winter storm to parts of Manitoba.

the region through Sunday. For areas in western Manitoba, it’s looking like it will be another considerable dump of snow with 20–50 cm possible in some areas. Western Manitoba is also looking like the most likely region to see fairly persistent precipitation through the event. Further east, the precipitation will come in multiple waves separated by relatively benign weather with perhaps a bit of drizzle.

In the waves that do move through, the rain or snow may be quite heavy at times, driven by convective elements. With the snow already on the ground across parts of the region, this could result in rapid snow melt. If you live in a property that has grading issues, you may want to move snow away from your home/foundation before the weekend to help minimize any potential overland flooding risks.

As with the last Colorado Low, this system will also likely see a dry slot wrap into southern Manitoba, most likely for the Red River Valley and areas east. This would result in a 6–12 hour break of benign, mild weather with the only real threat being a bit of drizzle.

As the low pushes off to the east on Sunday, some areas that have only seen rain may see some accumulating snow as well.

We’ll be keeping an eye on this system as it develops through the week and have more details in our Friday forecast!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 0 °C.