Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Arctic Grip Loosens in Southern Manitoba

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After weeks of bitterly cold weather over the Prairies, warmer weather finally returns to the region.

The shift back to warmer weather is driven by a large-scale pattern change pushing the Arctic Vortex eastwards. The lobe responsible for our extreme cold is on the way out, allowing milder Pacific to spread into the Prairies. As this is part of a large-scale pattern change, the warmer temperatures will be longer-lived; Winnipeg will have seasonal to seasonably mild highs right through the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday January 11, 2022
Significantly milder temperatures than seen over the past couple weeks will spread across the southern Prairies today.

A warm front will push across the Red River Valley today, ushering in significantly warmer temperatures. Highs across the Red River Valley will climb above -10 °C today, ranging from -7 °C near Lake Winnipeg to close to freezing near the western escarpment of the valley. A cold front will slump southwards tonight and send lows into the -15 to -20 °C range.

After this, a broad frontal zone will set up roughly northwest-southeast through Manitoba. Winnipeg will see highs generally around -10 °C through the rest of the week, though may wobble slightly warmer or colder as weak impulses slide through in the northwest flow. Overnight lows will also vary from close to -10 °C when cloudy to around -20 °C when skies clear.

RDPS 84hr. Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 00Z Saturday January 15, 2022
Winnipeg could see close to 5 cm of snow by the end of Friday while western/southwestern Manitoba sees the brunt of snow with a widespread 10–15 cm through the rest of the week.

The region will see a bit of sun this afternoon, but then the rest of the week will bring mainly cloudy skies as the frontal boundary stalls over the region. Occasional disturbances will slide through the region, bringing waves of light snow with them. Accumulations will generally be light, but with light snow possible every 36 hours or so, it could gradually add up to something worth shovelling.

Long Range Outlook

Colder temperatures will return to the region next week. A cold front will slump through the region on Sunday bringing some more snow to the region and sending temperatures into a period of seasonably cool values. Highs next week will drop into the -15 to -20 °C range with overnight lows dipping into the mid-minus 20s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -24 °C.

Snowy Start To The Weekend; Warmer Weather On The Horizon

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Another dump of snow will move across southern Manitoba tonight, providing more jobs for aspiring sidewalk shovelers. The cold weather will stick around for a couple more days afterwards, but a notable pattern change next week will bring warmer temperatures back to the region.

RDPS 24 hr. Snowfall Accumulation (10:1 SLR) Forecast valid 18Z Saturday January 8, 2022
Much of southern Manitoba will see close to 10 cm of snow on Friday night.

Winnipeg will see a cold start to the day continue to feel cold right through the afternoon as the wind picks up as the temperature warms. With southerly winds strengthening to 40 km/h as a low approaches, the afternoon high near -20 °C, the wind chill will stay lower than -30 right through the day. Snow will spread into the region in the late afternoon and then continue through the night. Temperatures will climb up to around -10 °C by Saturday morning with close to 10 cm of fresh snow falling overnight.

A cold front will sweep through the region early Saturday, sending temperatures back into the -15 to -20 °C range for the afternoon as westerly winds move into the region. Some lingering flurries will taper off in the morning with some clear breaks developing through the day. Skies will clear overnight as temperatures head back down to a low in the mid-minus 20s.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday January 9, 2022
A very cold air mass will settle back over the region on Sunday.

An Arctic high will sit over the region on Sunday and Monday, keeping temperatures cold with highs in the -20 to -25 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead, several global models show a shift eastwards in the Polar Vortex through the second half of next week. This will bring some very cold weather to parts of eastern Canada, but here in the west it will result in some relief from the deep freeze the region has largely been locked in and allow more seasonal temperatures to spread across the Prairies. While Winnipeg will likely see conditions on the cloudier skies, daytime highs may climb back into the -5 to -10 °C range for the latter part of the week (positively balmy!). No significant or notable snowfalls are in the forecast for next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -24 °C.

More Snow, Then The Bitter Cold Creeps Back In

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An upper low moving into the province will bring more snow to Winnipeg today. Beginning early this morning in Winnipeg, it will continue right through the day and then taper off overnight. This system will drop around 10 cm of new snow across the region. With the low moisture levels seen through the area heading into winter, these recent snowfalls should prove helpful come spring.

Along with the snow, Winnipeg will also see some of the mildest temperatures the city has seen in quite some time. Highs will reach around -14 °C today despite a stiff northerly wind near 30 km/h. As this system pushes off to the east tonight, temperatures will fall back into the mid-minus 20s.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (at 10:1 SLR) valid 12Z Wednesday January 5, 2022
Much of southern Manitoba will see snow on Tuesday with 5–10 cm accumulation. The amounts depicted here are a bit underdone; higher SLRs than 10:1 will add about 50% more to the accumulated snowfall in Winnipeg.

Behind this system, colder air will build back into the region as a potent 1045+ mb high slides down the foothills and across the southern Prairies. Temperatures in Winnipeg will drop back into the -20s for highs and likely see lows dipping back below -30 for at least one or two nights later in the week. Extreme cold warnings will make a return for much of the southern Prairies by mid-week; they could reappear here in the Red River Valley for the latter couple days of the work week.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the end of the week, there are actually some signs of a more substantial pattern change. Several models have the polar vortex over Hudson Bay weakening by the end of the week, shifting off to the northeast, followed by a new centre to the vortex over the High Arctic. This patter change would help break down the persistent northwest flow and/or cold trough over the Prairies and allow milder Pacific air to begin mixing into the region.

GDPS 500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday January 12, 2022
This forecast of upper level heights (and their anomaly from normal) for the middle of next week shows clearly the collapse of the Polar Vortex back to the High Arctic and the development of upper ridging over the Prairies.

But before any substantial change occurs, there would likely be a period of highly variable temperatures as disturbances move through the region. The first one looks like it might move through on Friday night into Saturday, bringing another chance of snow to the region with highs climbing back towards seasonal values on Saturday. Temperatures would likely cool down behind this system for a few cold days, then warm again mid-week.

Some forecast models suggest that a milder trend may establish itself next week, moving the region into a multi-day pattern of perhaps even seasonably mild temperatures. At this point, one certainly can hope! In the meantime, maybe the cold temperatures can kill off a few pest insects while we wait.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

One More Snow, Then The Deep Freeze Moves In

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The Red River Valley will be grazed by a little more snow today, then a bitterly cold air mass will entrench itself over the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday December 29, 2021
Very cold temperatures will move into Southern Manitoba by Wednesday morning and will persist into the weekend.

If the dump of snow yesterday wasn’t quite enough for you, a little more snow is possible this morning. One last disturbance will move through the region this morning, bringing 4–8 cm of snow to southeastern Manitoba. This area of snow will also graze the Red River Valley with 2–5 cm possible along a southwest to northwest line draped across the area.

The snow will clear out this evening, leaving behind clear skies as bitterly cold temperatures push into the region.

The big weather story for the rest of the week will be the cold temperatures that will stay locked over the region. Daytime highs will be around 15 °C below seasonal in the -30 to -25 °C range right to Saturday. Overnight lows will vary, but there is the potential for some very cold nights with lows dipping below -35 °C. Extreme cold warnings are a certainty for the region in the days ahead as wind chill values of -40 or lower are likely unavoidable.

A few flurries may be possible later this week, but the organized snowfall will be over for a bit after today.

Long Range Outlook

Forecasts have temperatures moderating beginning on Sunday and lasting through much of next week. This warmer weather will come with some snow as well with chances both next Monday and mid-week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -12 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.