Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Mid-Week Snow Ushers In Cooler Conditions

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures will climb back above freezing today, but a low crossing the region on Wednesday will usher seasonal temperatures back into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday December 14, 2021
Tuesday will be a very mild December day across southern Manitoba with highs climbing above freezing.

A broad upper ridge over Manitoba today will bring another day of very mild December temperatures. That warmth will be short-lived, though. A deep upper trough moving off the west coast support a complex of lows that moves through the Prairies and American Plains over the next few days.

In southern Manitoba, breezy southeasterly winds will push daytime highs back up above freezing in the Red River Valley. Skies should stay sunny today as the upper flow deflects most of the cloud northwards . The winds will ease tonight with lows dipping back below freezing.

A bit of a complicated weather sleight of hand will then happen on Wednesday and Thursday. The low tracking across Saskatchewan will continue into central Manitoba on Wednesday. At the same time, a Colorado Low will eject northeastwards and move towards Lake Superior. As it approaches, the energy will consolidate towards the Colorado Low, weakening the Manitoba low into Wednesday night. This will send a cold front surging southwards into the United States.

Here in Winnipeg and area, that will mean a cloudy Wednesday with temperatures one again creeping back above freezing. Llight winds in the morning will pick up out of the north through the day as the main trough passes. The cold front will sweep through on Wednesday evening, bringing a couple of centimetres of snow to the region. Strong northerly winds of 40–50 km/h will ease overnight to around 30 km/h. The winds will gradually taper off through the day on Thursday.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 06Z Thursday December 16, 2021
Moderate northerly winds behind a Colorado Low moving over Lake Superior will usher seasonal temperatures back into the region on Wednesday night.

It’s worth noting that while significant snowfall tomorrow evening isn’t likely, a couple of weather models produce an intense band of snow as an upper-level trough swings through. Canadian forecast models produce significantly more snow from Winnipeg southwest, reaching over 10 cm by Thursday morning. It’s quite an outlier solution and at this point seems unlikely.

The biggest impact from this system will be the shift to more seasonable temperatures. Behind the cold front, temperatures will fall into the -10 to -15 °C range by Thursday morning. Daytime highs will hover in this range for the rest of the week with overnight lows down around the -20 °C mark. The region will see variable cloudiness through the rest of the week. Friday will bring cloudier skies as another disturbance tracks across the region. This system will likely bring a dusting of snow with it.

Long Range Outlook

Little change lies ahead for the region as a more typical winter pattern settles in. Daytime highs will sit in the -15 to -10 °C range right through next week with overnight lows around -20 °C. Other than a chance for a bit more snow on Sunday, conditions will be generally dry with a mix of sun and cloud.

Fortunately, it’s not looking like a huge deep freeze is on the way! Colder conditions should help get local waterways frozen more solidly, but still be pleasant enough to get out and enjoy outdoor activities.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

Sunshine and Mild Early-Winter Warmth Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Benign and pleasant early winter weather will settle in for Winnipeg this weekend.

The broad shift in the upper-level weather patterns we talked about earlier this week are underway. Gone is the Arctic vortex locked over Hudson Bay, allowing an upper ridge to build eastwards off the Pacific. This will be the dominant weather feature for the next couple days before it flattens out for the end of the weekend. Instead of being replaced by an upper trough and the associated cold air that comes with it, though, a generally zonal to west-southwest flow will develop aloft, continuing to spread mild temperatures across the southern Prairies.

As a result, Winnipeg’s forecast is quite pleasant for the days ahead. Right through the weekend into next week, the area will see daytime highs in the -5 to 0 °C range. A couple of these days may even see temperatures climb above freezing. Overnight lows will be similarly mild, generally falling in the -5 to -10 °C range.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday December 12, 2021
Very mild December temperatures will spread across the southern Prairies this weekend. Most areas will see highs above freezing on Sunday.

Winds will be light for the region today, but for the weekend southerly winds around 20–30 km/h will develop. The windiest conditions should end up over the western Red River Valley where the escarpment can interact with the westerly component to the winds and produce slightly breezier conditions.

Along with these pleasant conditions will be plenty of sunshine; the Winnipeg area will see mainly sunny skies through the weekend. Some cloud cover will begin moving in next Monday and Tuesday.

Long Range Outlook

The next disturbance to impact the region will move through in the middle of next week. Forecasts show it could bring around 5 cm of snow to the region followed by breezy northwest winds and return to more seasonal temperatures. The overall weather pattern after that looks somewhat unsettled with a chance for more snow on Friday/Saturday and potentially again to start off the next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

A Gradual Warm-Up For Southern Manitoba

Brad Leave a comment

Cold temperatures will stay in Winnipeg for another night, then a gradual warming trend begins for the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday December 8, 2021
Very cold temperatures of -25 to -30 °C will develop over southern Manitoba on Tuesday night.

Before that pattern shift occurs, though, it will be another cold day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will moderate more than they did yesterday with most areas seeing a high in the mid-minus teens today. That will come with plenty of sunshine too, save for a few afternoon clouds. Another Arctic high moving through will send lows into the -25 to -30 °C range tonight under clear skies.

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the pattern transition as an upper trough swings into the Prairies. It will spawn a pair of low pressure systems: one over the northern Prairies along the Arctic front and another over southern Saskatchewan along a push of occluding Pacific air. This area of low pressure will push up against the Arctic ridge exiting Manitoba, making for a relatively unpleasant day in the Red River Valley. Skies will cloud over on Wednesday morning as warmer air begins to push in aloft, followed by strengthening southerly winds. Winnipeg can expect to see winds of 40–50 km/h by the end of the day. Temperatures across the region will climb to around -10 °C by evening.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 00Z Thursday December 9, 2021
Moderate southerly winds will develop over southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

This system will then push snow from western Manitoba into central Manitoba on Wednesday night. Over southern Manitoba, the snow will ease to just a few flurries if much of anything with only 1–2 centimetres possible. Those southerly winds will continue through much of the night as temperatures rise to around-5 °C by Thursday morning.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 18Z Thursday December 9, 2021
The next disturbance moving into Manitoba will bring snow mainly to central and northern portions of the province on Wednesday night.

After that, the broader weather pattern will change. The Arctic Vortex, currently sitting over Hudson Bay, will start to retreat northwards. This will allow a more westerly flow to develop over the Prairies, spreading milder Pacific air into the region. Daytime highs will rise into the -5 to 0 °C range for the end of the work week.

There should be a fair amount of sunshine after skies clear out on Thursday that lasts into the weekend. The southerly winds will ease and shift westerly on Thursday as the skies clear out.

Long Range Outlook

Milder temperatures stay right through the weekend with highs likely climbing above freezing on Sunday. Forecasts show a bit more cloud moving into the region for next week, but mild temperatures continue with highs near or a couple degrees below 0 °C. The next notable chance for snow in the region may come next mid-week when the next disturbance moves into the region.

Snowy Weekend Ushers Winter Blast Into Southern Manitoba

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see a couple more mild days before a passing low brings snow, gusty northerly winds, and much colder temperatures to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday December 3, 2021
Southern Manitoba will more seasonably mild conditions on Friday and Saturday.

A strong, zonal flow aloft will continue to spread mild Pacific air across the Prairies over the next couple days. This will keep Winnipeg’s high temperatures in the -5 to 0 °C range through Saturday under variable cloudiness.

The next notable weather system will be a low pressure system moving through the northern United States this weekend. This system will bring two distinct weather events to southern Manitoba, beginning on Saturday night.

The first phase of this system will be an area of light snow that spreads across southern Manitoba on Saturday night. Primarily from the Trans-Canada Highway (TCH) corridor and south, light snow will move from southwestern Manitoba on Saturday evening to Lake of the Woods by midday Sunday. Accumulations with this first wave of snow will increase from 0–2 cm along the TCH corridor to 5–10 cm along the international border.

RDPS 24hr Snow Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Monday December 6, 2021
Another swath of snow will fall across southern Manitoba on Saturday night into Sunday, but there is some uncertainty in how far north it will extend.

The second phase of this system will be an arctic cold front that sweeps through the region Sunday afternoon into the evening. This front will support some flurries as it moves through as breezy northerly winds shift to the northwest. Temperatures will hover around -6 or -7 on Sunday, but for those planning on attending the football game, note that wind chills will be closer to -15 and it’ll be a brisk wind that develops later in the afternoon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday December 6, 2021
Bitterly cold Arctic air will surge southwards through the Prairies by Monday morning with widespread temperatures of -20 to -30 °C.

Skies will clear out behind the front on Sunday night as winds die off. Temperatures across the region will plummet to a low of -20 to -25 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Below seasonal temperatures will linger over the region to start next week with daytime highs of -15 to -20 °C on Monday and -15 to -10 °C on Tuesday. Seasonal conditions will move in on Wednesday, followed by a warmer Thursday with a chance of snow. Cooler temperatures are forecast to return for next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.