Matthieu, Author at A Weather Moment • Page 22 of 39

Elsewhere in Weather News: October 12th, 2013

October 12, 2013April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

India Braces for Super Cyclone Phailin

An extremely powerful cyclone churning in the Bay of Bengal is targeting India’s east coast and is expected to make landfall this morning. This is one of the strongest cyclones India has seen in recent history and the strongest since 1999. Phailin has maintained category five status since Friday afternoon and is expected to only slightly weaken to a high end category four (as its eyewall moves over land) before making landfall. Conditions were primed for quick intensification on Thursday; SSTs approaching the 30°C mark and shear quite low. Phailin went from a tropical cyclone to category four on Thursday thanks to these ideal conditions for intensification. Already, India has evacuated tens of thousands of residents from low lying coastal areas but Phailin still has the potential to wreak much havoc on India. Already one death has been reported associated with a tree falling onto a house as of Friday night.

Phailin

Incredible image of Phailin just before it makes landfall; a well defined eyewall and very cold cloud tops are present showing that the storm is well-organized. (Source: CIMSS)

Storm surge will be a real problem with this cyclone – a forecasted 11 foot storm surge is expected to arrive as Phailin makes landfall near Brahmapur. The good news is that the coastline goes up in elevation fairly quickly as you move inland, therefore residents that should be most concerned with storm surge should be the ones that live near shorelines. With category five cyclones like this one winds as well as flooding problems are almost a given. In this case, winds will be sustained over 240km/h, gusting over 300km/h, and anywhere from 200mm to 350mm can be expected to fall around where Phailin makes landfall. The cyclone is expected to move inland and die off fairly quickly as it moves over land as opposed to being over warm ocean waters.

SST and shear

Sea surface temperatures, overlayed with shear. Note the low shear values (5-10 knots) and SSTs between 29°C and 30°C; sufficient to sustain category five storms. (Source: CIMSS)

Another storm; typhoon Nari is currently threatening Vietnam to make landfall at the beginning of next week. It is still recovering from its passage over the rugged islands of the Philippines but is expected to strengthen to a category three typhoon over the South China Sea before landfall. Models are suggesting yet another typhoon to spin up behind Nari but this one is expected to take a turn towards Japan. So, overall a very active weekend and upcoming week cyclone and typhoon-wise!

Elsewhere in Weather News: October 5th, 2013

October 5, 2013April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

Quadruple threat in the US this Week

All kinds of extreme weather have been plaguing the United States this week; from tropical storms, tornadoes to blizzards to severe Santa Ana winds, they’ve just about seen it all. It was all happening yesterday due to a dynamic low pressure system centered in the Northern US Plains. High pressure building behind the low pressure system was responsible for the Santa Ana winds. The tropical storm, a completely separate system, has been targeting the gulf shores for a few days now.

The powerful fall low pressure system was drawing in brisk air from the north behind it which helped produce ideal conditions for blizzard conditions in the Black Hills. It was not unusual to see snowfall rates in excess of 5cm/h throughout the day on Friday in the region. The hardest hit area in regards to snow looked to be Lead, SD, which by Friday night had received 110cm (in less than 48 hours!), and another 20-30cm could fall before deformation zone moves off.

Streetcam picture of the snow accumulated in Lead, SD. Keep in mind there was no snow on the ground less than 48 hours ago! (Source: Twitter: @TylerJRoney)

Deadwood, SD snow drifts

Incredible image of a large snow drift almost completely covering the front door in Deadwood, SD. (Source: Twitter: @ReadingReineke)

In the warm sector of the same system severe thunderstorms were spawned on Friday. A few supercells formed in the late afternoon near the triple point in northern Nebraska/extreme southern South Dakota. With extremely favourable conditions for tornadoes, storms quickly started rotating. The number of tornadoes is still unclear at this time but a violent, long tracked, wedge tornado which was reported to be over a mile wide, touched down. Per initial reports it appears as though Wayne, NE was the hardest hit on Friday by this tornado. Houses and factories were completely demolished and two dozen people were reported injured. A squall line also evolved further south into Kansas and Oklahoma where large hail and severe wind were the main threats.

Wayne, NE damage

Damage of a factory destroyed in Wayne, NE from the tornado that hit the town. (Source: Twitter: @action3news)

The Santa Ana winds have been a treat to California this week, too. These winds get funneled through the Mountains of Southern California, subsequently warm and dry as they descend in elevation. Gusts in excess of 110km/h have been tearing through Southern California bringing with them an extreme fire risk. This prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue multiple red flag warnings for the area – these warnings are issued when conditions are ideal for wildfires and quick intensification. The NWS also added that these were the worst winds in five years.

As for the tropical storm (Karen) spinning in the Gulf of Mexico, it does not appear that it will become a significant hurricane. Strong wind shear has been affecting its development for the past few days. It will likely make landfall as a tropical storm with winds of tropical storm force, but possibly even weaker depending on how much the shear tears the storm apart. The location of the landfall looks to be on the south-east gulf shores of Louisiana. It doesn’t appear as though its effects will be too significant to the US – heavy rain will be the main threat with Karen. Otherwise, the tropics continue to remain unusually calm and no other developments elsewhere in the Atlantic basin are expected in the near future.

Elsewhere in Weather News: September 29th, 2013

September 28, 2013April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

Wutip Forms, Typhoon Usagi Update

This week the Northwest Pacific typhoon season continues to be active as another typhoon – typhoon Wutip – has spun up in the South China Sea and is tracking westward. Although this is good news for the residents of Hong Kong and southern China who have been affected by last week’s typhoon, Vietnam will now have to closely monitor Wutip. As of Friday night Wutip was only a high-end tropical cyclone but is expected to slowly continue to strengthen over the open waters of the South China Sea. It will likely only have enough time to strengthen to a category one typhoon before it makes landfall near the city of Da Nang. Still, residents of Vietnam will have to watch for storm surge that could wreak havoc in low lying coastal areas as well as flooding; much rain will be associated with Wutip. It’s expected that Wutip will make landfall Sunday night.

Wutip

Infrared enhanced image of Wutip on Friday night. A bit of dry air to the south-east of it’s center but very cold tops (white) near it’s center as it was attempting to organize itself. (Source: CIMSS)

The storm talked about in last week’s EIWN, typhoon Usagi, has caused significant damage to coastal areas of China, in the Guangdong province. In total, 25 people have died in China due to landslides triggered by the heavy rains and storm surge. Search and rescue teams are still looking for survivors in the mud though, and cleanup efforts are now underway. Usagi made landfall 140km to the north-west of Hong Kong; there it brought with it sustained winds of 175km/h which gusted to over 200km/h. In Hong Kong over 200 flights had to be cancelled. Although once a powerful super typhoon, Usagi is no more as it moved over China’s mainland and fell apart this past week.

Elsewhere in Weather News: September 21st, 2013

September 21, 2013April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

Super Typhoon Usagi Takes Aim at Hong Kong

The strongest typhoon of the year up to date has formed in the Pacific and is taking aim at Hong Kong. Super typhoon Usagi is currently located in the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines and is moving in a west north-westerly fashion. Thursday and Friday morning, Usagi was packing sustained winds of around 260km/h – considered category five strength. It has since slightly weakened but is still a dangerous category four super typhoon as it eyes (no pun intended) Hong Kong and the southern coast of China.

Usagi

Awesome image of Usagi Thursday afternoon. (Source: Colorado State University/Capital Weather)

This super typhoon is not only a very powerful typhoon but also a very large one; its diameter reaching over 1,000km. A very distinct eye could be seen on satellite as well as more than one eyewall present; it is not as common for a tropical system to have more than one eyewall, though it does happen with storms of category three or higher.

Usagi is expected to make landfall sometime on Sunday along the south China shores. Its impacts remain to be seen though, with seas expected reaching 10 meters in the South China Sea all vessels will have to steer clear or dock. Another concern is the rainfall; already copious amounts of rain have fallen in Taiwan, especially on its east coast where about a meter of rain was not out of the question before the weekend’s end.

In addition to Usagi, a second typhoon is expected to form this weekend behind (to the east) of Usagi, it will be named Pabuk. Although still a ways out, Pabuk has a good chance at becoming a severe typhoon due to the warm sea surface temperatures and low shear in the area. Currently, the models show Pabuk reaching the eastern shores of Japan but then quickly curving back out to sea – this would suggest minimal impacts to Japan.

A Weather Moment

Author: Matthieu