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Elsewhere in Weather News: September 29, 2012

September 29, 2012April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

Typhoon Jelawat Forecast to Weaken Before Impacting Japan

Typhoon Jelawat remains at very strong intensity despite weakening from its previous status as a super typhoon. Earlier this week Jelawat had maximum sustained winds of 220km/h near its centre, which would classify it as a category four hurricane by north american standards. The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 145km/h (as of Friday afternoon), the equivalent of a category two hurricane.

Satellite image of Jelawat on Thursday morning when it was heading toward Taiwan with 155mph sustained winds

Satellite image of Jelawat on Thursday morning when it was heading toward Taiwan with 155mph sustained winds. (JMA/NOAA) – via Washington Post (see sources)

Jelawat is presently located near Okinawa and is moving in a north-easterly direction toward Japan, weakening the further north it moves. According to the Japanese Meterological Agency Jelawat will impact the Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, today before moving toward the Japanese mainland late today into Sunday.

Jelawat's Forecast track by the JMA

Jelawat’s Forecast track by the JMA

Thus far Jelawat has not caused any devastating damage, owing to the fact that it has not yet impacted any large land masses. Some damage was reported on Lanyu (Orchid Island), located just off Taiwan’s south-eastern coast. No casualties have been reported on Lanyu, but the harbor, gas station, and supermarket were reportedly destroyed. There may be more damage as this typhoon moves over the more heavily populated Ryukyu Islands this weekend.

Sources: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/09/29/2003543923, http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_gis_e.htm, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/typhoon-jelawat-closing-in-on-okinawa-japan-nadine-becomes-hurricane-again/2012/09/28/c0f6844c-097b-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html

Elsewhere in Weather News: September 22nd, 2012

September 22, 2012April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

Wildfires Sparked by Dry Lightning Affect Pacific Northwest

A couple large wildfires in the state of Washington have been burning for the past week or so and continue to grow in size. The fires, located in the central and southwestern part of Washington, were sparked by dry lightning a few weeks ago but have only started significantly growing in size this week. The main reason as to why these fires have now become large and uncontrolled can be attributed to the very dry conditions and warm temperatures on the west coast this past month.

Washington wildfires

Picture of various wildfires across Central Washington. (Source: NASA)

Currently, the largest fire in the state is the Wenatchee Fire Complex which covers around 16,000 hectares, is around 25% contained, and is being battled by over 2,000 firefighters. The second complex of fires, Table Mountain Complex, poses the highest level of threat to residents – causing 1,250 residents to evacuate and currently putting 750 homes at risk. Approximately 700 firefighters were currently at work on that specific fire complex which was only 5% contained as of Thursday. Smoke that has been slowly wafting further away from the fires, has started to affect surrounding communities in Central Washington thereby prompting the issuance of air quality advisories.

Wildfire

One of the numerous wildfires raging across Central Washington. (Source: KIMATV)

The reason for the unseasonably warm temperatures in Washington and the rest of the west coast this week (approximately 6°C above average) can be linked to a strong ridge of high pressure that has been in place since the start of this week. It appears that the balmy temperatures will stay put through the weekend. Early next week, a weak upper-level disturbance is predicted to slide through the area which could bring some precipitation with it to alleviate the threat of the fires, although it could also cause more trouble than good if more lightning strikes come with the system.

Ridge

Ridge over the west coast (indicated with green arrow) with 500mb winds and heights. (Source: Twisterdata)

Elsewhere in Weather News: September 15th, 2012

September 15, 2012April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

Pakistan Monsoon Flooding

Severe flooding occurred in Pakistan early this past week, after monsoon rains moved into the region and dropped large amounts of rain. Even though Pakistani officials had issued a flood warning for many low-lying areas such as Punjab and Sindh, many residents decided to stay put to battle out the floods in their villages.

As numerous canals and rivers overflowed their banks because of the heavy monsoon rains, many low-lying areas such as farmland, villages and roads were inundated with water. The highest rainfall report that could be found was in Rahimyar Khan where 193mm fell in 24 hours between Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th.

Pakistan flooding

Two satellite images (visible/IR enhanced) showing the difference between no flooding and severe flooding in Pakistan. Notice the dark blues along the Indus River. (Source: NASA)

About 1,500 houses were destroyed in the process and over 100 people perished with waters rising quickly and houses collapsing from waters. The country’s army was deployed to execute search and rescue missions in the hardest hit areas, and to try to fill in the areas where water broke through the canals.

Flooding

Picture showing the flooded houses in the town of Larkana located in the region of Sindh. (Source: APP)

Estimated total losses look to be in the neighbourhood of a couple million, though it’s difficult to assess at this time as authorities are still tallying up the damages and looking for survivors. When the floodwaters recede, most likely in a couple days, the final tally from the total economic loss and death toll should be more accurate. This monsoon season does not compare to 2010 though, where numerous severe flooding events occurred and residents described that year as “the worst in living memory”. In 2010 the total structure damage that accounted for four billion in damages and the floods had a significant impact on 20 million people with around 2,000 deaths.

The monsoon rains have since moved away a couple days ago from the region of concern and crews will be able to clean up, repair villages and search for more survivors this weekend.

Elsewhere in Weather News: September 7th, 2012

September 8, 2012April 3, 2015 Matthieu Leave a comment

Tropical Storm Leslie a Threat to Canada

With the hurricane season nearing its peak in the Atlantic, more tropical systems have spun up this past week. The first system which is not much of a concern (unless you are boating in the middle of the Atlantic) is Michael. Michael, once a category three hurricane, the strongest seen this year, has been spinning in the middle of the North Atlantic for a while now and is not expected to make a landfall.

Leslie

Leslie still not organized very efficiently with a broad circulation on IR satellite as of Friday evening. (Source: Wunderground/NASA)

The second storm; Leslie, however, is spinning west of Michael and has a small chance at making a landfall somewhere on the south-eastern coast of Newfoundland, Canada. Bermuda is already experiencing high surf and there’s a good chance they’ll experience tropical storm force winds this Sunday since Leslie is such a large storm. By that time, Leslie will likely be upgraded to hurricane status of category one. It will slowly start moving north as the trough moving in from Eastern Canada approaches the storm. Though, with that said, Leslie still stands a slim chance at making landfall on Canadian soil and making a significant impact on the province. Since this possibility is still quite a ways away – five to six days – weather models are having trouble deciphering Leslie’s exact future track.

Leslie tracks

Model consensus appears to be leaning towards no landfall and more of a rain event for Newfoundland. (Source: SFWMD)

Even though Leslie might come close to Newfoundland within the next week or so, it appears the worst part of the storm will be well off to the east of the island as the top right quadrant of the storm where the strongest winds are located is not expected to affect land. The last time Newfoundland got struck by a tropical disturbance was back in October of last year where tropical storm Ophelia struck, dumping heavy rains on the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. The most memorable hurricane to affect Newfoundland in recent memory had to have been Hurricane Igor, in 2008. This hurricane caused severe flooding to the eastern half of Newfoundland where in St. Lawrence, NFLD, 238mm fell. This was the most damaging hurricane to have ever hit Newfoundland in recent history.

Updates on Leslie will be forthcoming as it nears Canada!

A Weather Moment

Author: Matthieu