Author: Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

Last Major Arctic Outbreak of the Winter?

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This week will start out with what could be our last arctic outbreak of the winter. Temperatures will remain below seasonal for most of this week, but it appears spring may not be too far away.

Today will be the coldest day of the week, as high temperatures will be stuck in the upper minus teens. An arctic high pressure system sliding down from the north will be responsible for this cold air mass. The outflow from this high will be breezy from the north-west, pushing wind chill values near the -30 mark for much of the day. On the brighter side, it will be sunny, so at least there’s that (pun fully intended by the way)!

An arctic high pressure system will dominate our weather early this week
An arctic high pressure system will dominate our weather early this week

Tuesday will see slightly warmer temperatures from today as highs climb into the low minus teens. Skies should remain mainly sunny with lighter westerly winds. The arctic high from Monday will still be hovering around the region, preventing warmer air from pushing in.

Wednesday will be much the same as Tuesday, with high temperatures in the low minus teens and mainly sunny skies. Another arctic high will push down from the north and sit off to our north-east. This should bring north-easterly winds to southern Manitoba, with speeds near 20 km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that we should begin to see a shift towards above seasonal weather starting in about a week’s time. Models are beginning to strongly indicate that spring-like conditions will build into southern Manitoba sometime around March 5-8 and last into mid-month. Given the time of year, this warm-up should be accompanied by some decent snow-melt. There isn’t much snow to our south and west, so be prepared for a rapid transition to spring once this warmer pattern arrives!

Mild Weather Early This Week

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This week will start out mild, with temperatures just below the freezing mark. However, colder weather appears to be on the way for the weekend.

Today will be mainly cloudy with some flurry activity. A low pressure system to our north will push southward during the day, ushering in this light snowfall. We’ll be in the warm sector of this low pressure system, allowing us to experience mild temperatures just below the freezing mark. Winds will also be light, making for a generally nice day.

Southern Manitoba will be in the warm sector on Monday
Southern Manitoba will be in the warm sector on Monday

Tuesday will remain mild, although temperatures will dip slightly in the northerly flow behind Monday’s system. A few flurries may persist on Tuesday, though no significant accumulations are expected. Winds will be breezy from the north at 20-30km/h.

Wednesday will see the continuation of mainly cloudy, but mild conditions. Temperatures will remain just below the freezing mark with flurries likely again. Winds will be light however, making for a grey, but generally decent day.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that mild weather will stick around through the remainder of the work-week. However, it appears another arctic blast is on tap for the weekend, bringing temperatures well below normal. Models suggest that this arctic air mass will stick around into next week, although it will be tough for extreme cold conditions to persist as we push into March.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.

Colder This Week

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This week will be see temperatures trend below seasonal as a surge of arctic air comes down from the north.

Colder weather is expected this week behind the weekend's departing low pressure system
Colder weather is expected this week behind the weekend’s departing low pressure system

Today will be slightly below seasonal as colder air filters southward behind the weekend’s strong low pressure system. High temperatures will be in the low minus teens under clearing skies. Winds will remain stiff out of the north-west at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h. There may still be a bit of drifting snow on the highways with these wind speeds, but heavy blowing snow is not expected.

Tuesday will see a further drop in temperatures as that arctic air mass becomes more entrenched over southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be in the upper minus teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will remain northerly at about 20km/h. Tuesday night is expected to be quite cold due to the presence of a strong surface ridge of high pressure over the area along with clear skies. Temperatures are expected to drop to around -30C, but luckily wind chill values should not be a significant factor due to the light winds with this high pressure system.

Wednesday will remain cold, with temperatures staying in the upper minus teens. The good part of this colder pattern is that we should continue to see sunny skies on Wednesday. We will be under the centre of a surface high on Wednesday, bringing generally light winds to the region.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows cold conditions sticking around for the rest of the work-week. Models suggest we should warm back up to above-seasonal conditions by the weekend into next week. In the even longer range it appears that we may see one more arctic blast later next week before a more prolonged warm period takes hold towards the end of the month.

Seasonal Conditions Early This Week

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This week will start out with near seasonal conditions as temperatures stick near the -10C mark.

Today will see temperatures around or just above -10C. Skies will be mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries as a weak system passes to our south. Given the slack pressure gradient over southern Manitoba, winds will remain light and variable.

Tuesday will be slightly cooler than Monday, with temperatures around or just below -10C. An arctic air mass to the north will continue gradually sliding southward, allowing slightly colder weather to prevail. The drying associated with this colder air mass is expected to help clear skies a bit, although it looks like we won’t see completely sunny skies, but rather a mix of sun and cloud. Winds will be north-westerly at about 20km/h.

RDPS Temperature Forecast valid Monday afternoon
Forecast temperatures mid-afternoon across the Prairies on Monday

Wednesday will remain near seasonal, with temperatures once again just below -10C. Skies will become cloudy again as an upper-level impulse moves through the region. This impulse may bring a few flurries to southern Manitoba, but nothing significant. Winds will shift to southerly at around 20km/h.

Long Range

Models still aren’t showing a strong signal for what the long range forecast may entail. Based on the trends in the guidance, it looks more probable that February will cooler than normal than warmer than normal, but that is just an educated guess at this point.