Winter will remain absent this week as temperatures remain well above seasonal and our meager snowpack continues to melt.

Today will remain well above normal for early December, as high temperatures across all of southern Manitoba remain near or slightly above zero. In the Winnipeg region, high temperatures are expected to creep just above the freezing mark, although skies are expected to remain mainly cloudy throughout the day. Winds will be breezy from the south at 20-30km/h.

Tuesday will once again be seasonably mild, with high temperatures near or just above freezing. A weak low pressure system will pass through or just south of southern Manitoba, potentially bringing some light rain or snow to some areas. Given the warm temperature profile, any snow that falls is unlikely to accumulate to much. On the other hand, if we see a bit of rain it will only aid the snowmelt.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb above freezing in southern Manitoba, perhaps well above zero in snow-free areas. In the northern Red River Valley, high temperatures will only be a few degrees above freezing. Winds will be breezy from the south at 20-30km/h.

Long Range

Models continue to show above-seasonal weather for the foreseeable future. However, after this week temperatures may not be quite as warm as they’ve been of late. The average high temperature at this time of year is -8C and the average low is -18C, so don’t expect temperatures to drop much below those values through the first half of December – particularly if we remain generally snow-free. The lack of snow reduces the reflectivity of the surface, allowing more sunlight to be absorbed, generating more heat in the lower atmosphere. So long as we don’t have snow on the ground over much of the southern Prairies, we will maintain a built-in bias toward warm conditions.

More snow is on the way this week, probably not what you were hoping to hear (at least most of you).

Monday

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies and more snow! There will be a chance of flurries throughout the day as we remain under a cloud deck with some low-level instability. Accumulations of new snow aren’t expected to be large, but will not be welcome by most nonetheless. Luckily, temperatures will remain near 0C, allowing snow to easily melt off treated surfaces. Winds will also be relatively light, preventing the white-out conditions we experienced last week.

Tuesday

We’ll likely see a break from the snow on Tuesday morning, but more is on the way later on Tuesday. A stronger low pressure system will be pushing into southern Manitoba from the west, bringing more accumulating snow by later on Tuesday.

At this point accumulations looks to be around 5ish centimetres, but that number may go up or down depending on the eventual track of the system. Winds will be easterly at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h, leading to blowing and drifting snow out on the highways. However, temperatures will still be hovering near 0C, again helping to prevent ice from forming on treated roadways.

Wednesday

Snow will taper off on Wednesday morning, followed be clearing skies through the day. Unfortunately, a cold front will push through southern Manitoba on Wednesday morning, ushering in gusty north winds and a chillier air mass. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, allowing for more blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will fall throughout the day as this colder air mass floods in, with temperatures dropping to the minus double digits by evening.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to show generally above-seasonal weather for southern Manitoba as we push further toward winter (remember it’s not technically “winter” yet). This November is running 6.4C above normal, although that is going to change with the colder pattern that we’re currently in. Unfortunately, we live in Manitoba, so even “warm” winter weather is never really that warm, but hopefully we’ll avoid the extreme cold that has plagued us frequently the last few winters.