Author: Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

Grey Skies Return on Monday

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Grey and drizzly weather return today as a surge of moisture from the south generates an area of low cloud over southern Manitoba. It looks like we may see the sun again by midweek.

Monday will be overcast with periods of drizzle as a surge of moisture generates low cloud over southern Manitoba
Monday will be overcast with periods of drizzle as a surge of moisture generates low cloud over southern Manitoba

Monday

Today will be a grey, dreary day in southern Manitoba. A strong push of low-level moisture from the south will generate a broad area of low-cloud, bringing periods of drizzle to southern Manitoba throughout the day. Temperatures will remain relatively mild, in the mid single digits, but with the drizzle and wind it won’t feel particularly comfortable. Wind speeds will be gusty, at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h, out of the south-east.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see generally cloudy skies stick around in southern Manitoba, but we may see some clearing by late in the day. The flow will shift to westerly on Tuesday, allowing a drier airmass to move into the region. However, it doesn’t look like this drier air mass will arrive in time for us to see clear skies before sunset. Winds will be westerly at 20km/h with temperatures in the mid single digits.

Wednesday

We should finally see sunnier conditions on Wednesday as we sit between two approaching low pressure systems. Current forecast models suggest we’ll remain in a dry airmass for most of Wednesday, before the risk of precipitation increases again on Wednesday night. Winds should generally be light, with temperatures in the mid single digits.

Long Range

It looks like we’ll see a fairly stark change in the weather on Thursday as a powerful cold front ushers in a more arctic-like airmass. Very strong winds are expected on Thursday in the wake of this front along with decreasing temperatures. Unfortunately, we may see some accumulating snow with this system, though it’s too early to say how much can be expected. It still appears that the overall pattern will remain above normal for the foreseeable future, but as we move further into the winter season snow and cold are inevitable.

Turning Cloudy Again

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We’ll have one more sunny day before conditions turn cloudy again. A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring another round of dreary, wet weather.

Today will be quite nice in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be near 10C under mainly sunny skies and light winds. The normal high for this time of year is only 1C, so conditions today are well above seasonal. Enjoy it, this may be one of the last nice days of the year!

A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday
A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will see the return of dreary, wet weather. A low pressure system moving up from the US will spread showery weather over southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be very light, but the cloudy, wet conditions won’t make for a very nice day. Winds will be from the north at 20km/h.

Wednesday will see a continuation of Tuesday’s grey weather. However, instead of just rain, we may see some snow mixed in as well. No accumulations are expected, but the white stuff is never a welcome sight at this time of year. Winds will be north-westerly at 20-30km/h with temperatures in the low single digits.

Long Range

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015

Long range models, such as the NAEFS pictured above, continue to strongly suggest that above-seasonal weather will last for most of November. Given the strength of El Nino this winter, expect to continue hearing a lot more about warmer than normal weather in the long range!

Dreary Start to the Week

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This week will start out on the dreary side as a series of low pressure systems bring rain to southern Manitoba. Some parts of southern Manitoba may even see a bit of snow by midweek.

A low pressure system will bring light rain to parts of southern Manitoba on Monday
A low pressure system will bring light rain to parts of southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies and light rain showers as a low pressure system passes through southern Manitoba. Rainfall amounts in the Winnipeg region are expected to be under 2 mm, but areas further north may see slightly higher amounts. Winds will be light and temperatures will be relatively mild (near 10C), so conditions will generally be comfortable outside of the rain showers.

Tuesday

More rain appears to be on tap for Tuesday as we come under the influence of another low pressure system pushing up from the south. Like Monday, accumulations are expected to be small, with amounts of only around 2 mm expected. It will be windier and cooler than Monday though, with temperatures in the mid single digits and breezy north-east winds.

Wednesday

Wednesday will see the continuation of Tuesday’s system with more rain likely in store. Accumulations will probably range from 2-4mm in the Red River Valley. There is a chance of snow in the higher terrain of western Manitoba, but it is too early to say how much could fall. Temperatures will be in the low to mid single digits with a breezy north-west wind.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to strongly hint at above-normal weather for the first half of November. The combination of a positive Arctic Oscillation and the increasing influence of El Nino will allow Pacific air to continue moving across the Prairies while preventing significant Arctic air masses from surging southward. That isn’t to say we won’t get cold weather this November, but it certainly seems most likely that warmer conditions will dominate. Given that the normal high for this time of year is only 3C, “warm weather” will be a relative term from this point forward.

Pleasant Monday, but Change is Coming

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Monday will be a pleasant day in southern Manitoba, with slightly above seasonal temperatures and light winds. However, change is on the way for Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong low pressure system approaches the region.

A low pressure system will bring rain to southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday
A low pressure system will bring rain to southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday

Monday

Today will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the upper single digits under mainly sunny skies and light winds. There may be some low cloud in the morning, but it should dissipate by the afternoon. Enjoy today, because the rest of the week won’t be quite so pleasant!

Tuesday

A low pressure system will move into southern Manitoba on Tuesday, bringing with it some light rainfall. Accumulations aren’t expected to be large, probably only 2-4 mm in the Red River Valley. Winds will be from the south-east at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h.

Wednesday

Tuesday’s system will stick around on Wednesday, bringing more rainfall to southern Manitoba. Additional accumulations of 5-10 mm look probable at this point, although it’s too early to make any firm predictions. The wind will make it feel quite unpleasant, with speeds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to suggest a generally above-normal trend as we move into November. There will likely be a fair amount of variability in the weather as we continue moving deeper into fall, but that is not abnormal for this time of year. The interesting thing to watch moving forward will be the impact of El Nino on our weather. Typically, the effects of El Nino become stronger as we move into winter, so we will see if that is what happens this year.