Author: Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

Hang onto your Hat! Severe Wind Storm for Thanksgiving Monday

Scott Leave a comment

It will be a very windy Thanksgiving as a strong low pressure system ushers in potentially damaging winds. By the time you’re reading this your loose objects will probably already be in your neighbour’s yard!

Monday

Today will not be the most pleasant Thanksgiving, as rain and strong winds wreck havoc outdoors. A strong low pressure system and corresponding pressure gradient will generate high to extremely high winds over southern Manitoba on Monday. The highest winds are expected Monday morning, when sustained speeds of 60-80km/h, and gusts to 100km/h or more, are expected. The period of extreme gusts likely won’t last more than a few hours, but during that time it will certainly do some damage, not to mention the fact that you’ll have a lot more leaves to rake!

A strong pressure gradient (shown above as tightly packed black lines called isobars) will bring very windy conditions to southern Manitoba on Monday
A strong pressure gradient (shown above as tightly packed black lines called isobars) will bring very windy conditions to southern Manitoba on Monday

Today will also be rather soggy, as moderate rainfall occurs in association with this low pressure system. Today’s rainfall amounts will likely be around 5-15mm in the Red River Valley. You’ll have to wait until at least Tuesday for all those wet leaves to dry out!

Tuesday

Tuesday will be much calmer than Monday. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will remain breezy from the west, but they will feel light compared to Monday!

Wednesday

Wednesday will feature much the same weather as Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be breezy from the north-west, but once again it will feel like nothing compared to Monday.

Long Range

Long range models continue to show a strong signal for warmer than normal weather through the end of October. Hopefully this will continue to be the trend as we move into winter due to the effects of El Nino.

Seasonal Weather This Week

Scott Leave a comment

This week will feature near seasonal weather for early October. Temperatures will hover in the mid teens.

Monday

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid teens. There will be a chance of showers throughout the day as a strong upper low sits to our west. Precipitation accumulations are not expected to be significant. Winds will be southwesterly at 20km/h.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be mainly sunny with temperatures once again in the mid teens. A surface ridge of high pressure will be responsible for the sunshine. Winds will be breezy from the north-west at 20km/h.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be mainly cloudy with a chance of rain late in the day. An approaching low pressure system may generate an area of rainfall over southern Manitoba later on Wednesday, possibly bringing light to moderate rainfall accumulations to the region. Stay tuned for further details as we get closer to this event.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to suggest above normal weather for Manitoba over the next few weeks. The current pattern of above-seasonal weather may be partially the result of the El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. As we push further into the fall, it is expected that the El Nino will begin to exert more noticeable effects on our weather.

First Risk of Frost This Year

Scott Leave a comment

Most of southern Manitoba will be at risk tonight as the potential for the first frost of the fall looms.

There will be a risk of frost in southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning
There will be a risk of frost in southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning

Monday

Today will feature mainly sunny, but cool conditions. A surface ridge of high pressure will bring about chillier weather in southern Manitoba, with daytime highs only in the low teens. The wind won’t make it feel any warmer, with speeds of 30km/h out of the north-west.

Skies will remain mainly clear overnight into Tuesday, allowing temperatures to drop near the freezing mark. Low-lying areas are very likely to receive frost on Monday night. Elsewhere, frost will be more spotty, but the outer edges of Winnipeg will be at risk, with the downtown area likely staying above freezing.

Tuesday

After we warm up from near freezing temperatures on Tuesday morning, the rest of the day will be rather pleasant. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens under mainly sunny skies and light winds. Overall, it will be a fairly typical late September day.

Wednesday

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in the first part of the week, with temperatures in the mid to upper teens. The wind will be gusty from the south or south-east though, making it less pleasant than it would otherwise be. Skies will range from a mixture of sun and cloud to mainly cloudy.

A Cold Front is Coming

Scott Leave a comment

We’ll see one more warm day today before a cold front rolls through late this afternoon. Cooler weather is on tap after today, but temperatures will remain near seasonal.

A cold front will move through southern Manitoba on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler weather
A cold front will move through southern Manitoba on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler weather

Monday

Today will see a shift in our weather as a cold front moves through late in the day. This cold front will drop temperatures from the upper twenties down into the teens by the evening. Winds will also shift from being southerly in the morning to westerly or north-westerly following the frontal passage. No precipitation is expected as this cold front passes due to the lack of moisture ahead of it. Temperatures will fall rapidly on Monday night in this cooler air mass, with lows by Tuesday morning only in the single digits.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see much cooler weather than Monday, but temperatures will remain near seasonal. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the mid to upper teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be breezy from the west. No precipitation is expected.

Wednesday

Wednesday will see this cooler weather pattern continue with high temperatures only in the mid teens. Skies will be mainly cloudy and there will be a chance of showers throughout the day. Winds will be light and from the east.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that our weather will generally remain at or above seasonal values for the remainder of September. You can expect to see a few more warm-ups before chillier fall weather is here to stay.