Author: Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

Warm, with Frequent Storm Chances

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This week will remain seasonably warm, with temperatures in the upper twenties to near thirty degrees. There will also be a frequent risk of thunderstorms as the atmosphere remains unstable.

Monday

Today will remain warm and humid, with a risk of thunderstorms. The presence of an upper-level low pressure system is expected to trigger numerous storms. Storms will generally be non-severe and of the pulse variety, with the main threat being heavy rainfall due to slow storm motion. There may be an isolated severe hail report or two due to the moderately unstable atmosphere, but individual severe storms are very unlikely to be persistent.

Tuesday

Thunderstorms will once again be possible in southern Manitoba on Tuesday, but they will once again be non-severe. Any storms that develop will present a risk of heavy rain and perhaps non-severe (small) hail. Skies will be main cloudy outside of the storms as an upper-level disturbance passes through the region.

Wednesday

At the present time, Wednesday appears to be the best risk for severe storms in southern Manitoba this week. Early model output shows parameters favourable for severe storms, including MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg and effective wind shear near 30 kts. It is too early to tell if this severe risk will materialize, but it bears watching. Other than the risk of storms, Wednesday will feature the continuation of hot and muggy weather in southern Manitoba.

Mainly Sunny with a Good Chance of Smoke

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Several forest fires have produced widespread smoke over Southern Saskatchewan & Manitoba .
Several forest fires (circled in red) have contributed to the widespread smoke over our region the past week.

This week will see relatively benign weather, but unfortunately also the continuation of forest fire smoke over southern Manitoba. A persistent west to north-west flow aloft will continue to transport smoke from northern Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba.

Monday

Today will see cool conditions in southern Manitoba as a chilly air mass surges down from the arctic. High temperatures are only expected to be in the mid teens, but skies will be mainly sunny. Surface winds will be breezy from the north.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see somewhat warmer conditions from Monday as some warmer air begins to return from the south-west. High temperatures should reach the low to mid twenties under mainly sunny skies. The only unknown in Tuesday’s forecast is how extensive forest fire smoke will be over the region. Should smoke be quite extensive, temperatures will likely stay closer to 20C, whereas less smoky skies will promote temperatures in the mid twenties. Our forecast is a compromise position between these two possibilities.

Wednesday

Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below seasonal for Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid twenties. There is a decent chance of showers or thunderstorms during the day as some mid-level instability develops in the atmosphere. Severe storms are not expected, but do not be surprised to hear some thunder!

Smoke over SK & MB - June 28, 2015

Smoky with a Risk of Thunderstorms

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This week will start out with hazy skies from forest fires burning over Northern Saskatchewan and Alberta. There will also be a risk of thunderstorms today as a cold front moves through southern Manitoba.

Monday

Today will feature hazy skies, as extensive smoke from northern Saskatchewan/Alberta continues to pour south-eastward into southern Manitoba. The smoke will likely hold down high temperatures to the mid twenties, when they would otherwise be in the upper twenties. Despite the cooler temperatures, it is still expected that storms will develop along a cold front ahead of an incoming upper disturbance. At this point it appears that storms will be strong to marginally severe, with the highest potential for severe storms being in south-eastern Manitoba. The main threat with storms tomorrow will be large hail, although gusty winds are also possible. The main uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s storm threat is how much the smoke will affect atmospheric (in)stability. If smoke is less extensive than expected, storms could potentially be stronger due to extra daytime heating.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a nice day, with temperatures in the mid twenties under mainly sunny skies and light winds. There may still be some lingering smoke, but it shouldn’t be as extensive as earlier in the week. No precipitation is expected.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be another pleasant day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper twenties under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be light once again and there is only a slim chance of showers.

Long Range

The medium-term forecast suggests we’ll generally see normal to above-normal weather for the next week or so. Beyond that it appears there may be slightly more unsettled conditions as we see more frequent chances for stronger weather systems passing through the region.

Seasonal and Unsettled

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This week will start out with near seasonal temperatures, but somewhat unsettled conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid twenties, but there will be a frequent risk of rain or thunderstorms.

Monday

Today will start out rainy as upper disturbance produces precipitation over much of southern Manitoba. The rain should clear out of most of the province by the afternoon, except perhaps far eastern sections, leading to a breezy, but relatively pleasant evening. Wind will be north-west at 30 km/h gusting to 60 km/h.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a mixture of sun and cloud with risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Daytime heating will generate an unstable atmosphere across southern Manitoba, prompting storms to develop by the afternoon. These storms should be generally non-severe, although an occasionally severe storm with hail to nickel size may be possible.

Wednesday

It appears that Wednesday will be mainly cloudy with a risk of thunderstorms once again. Unlike Tuesday, storms are Wednesday should be almost exclusively non-severe due to very weak wind shear. There may be issues with heavy rain however, as storms will be slow-moving.

Long Range

The long range forecast looks general near seasonal for southern Manitoba. We will generally remain under the primary upper jet stream, meaning frequent chances for storms and/or precipitation.