Author: Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

Warm-up Just Around the Corner

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After a couple weeks of frigid conditions, a warm-up is on the way. However, we’ll have to deal with another couple days under an arctic air mass before warmer weather arrives.

Monday morning will be extremely cold in southern Manitoba
Monday morning will be extremely cold in southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
-22°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will be very cold in southern Manitoba. Morning low temperatures will be in the minus thirties, with daytime highs remaining stuck in the minus twenties. The wind will gradually pick up throughout the day, slowly adding a more significant wind chill factor. We’ll be under a strong surface high pressure system, so at least it will be sunny!

Tuesday

Tuesday
-18°C / ⇑ -15°C
Mainly Cloudy

Tuesday will be the last really cold day for awhile. Morning temperatures will be in the minus twenties, with a gusty south wind, making it feel closer to -40. Temperatures will slowly rise during the day, reaching the upper minus teens by late in the day. The wind will remain gusty though, so it will still feel pretty cold. However, temperatures will continue to rise on Tuesday night as that southerly flow brings in warmer air, setting up much nicer weather for Wednesday.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-2°C / -10°C
Mainly Cloudy

Wednesday will finally feature that long-promised warm-up. Temperatures will climb into the low-minus single digits (maybe even up to 0C in some areas). Unfortunately, it will be a cloudy day, but I’m sure most people will take the warmer conditions over a bit of sun.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to show a prolonged period of warmer weather beginning this week. The average high at this time of year is -13C, so that does not mean every day will be near the freezing mark, but most days should be in the minus single digits.

Staying Warm Until Christmas

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Warm weather will stick around until Christmas, a nice break for the holidays.

Mild conditions are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Mild conditions are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
0°C / -4°C
Light snow

Today will be very mild, but with some snow. A low pressure system off to the south will generate some light snow in southern Manitoba during the day, with accumulations of generally around 2cm expected. Given the mild temperatures, most snow should melt quickly off treated roads, making for mostly wet, as opposed to slippery, conditions.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-1°C / -8°C
Light snow

More light snow is expected on Tuesday as the system to the south remains in place. Accumulations of around 2cm will once again be possible. Temperatures will remain mild though, making for a decent day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-3°C / -10°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of flurries

A slight chance of flurries will linger on Wednesday, but any additional accumulations should be small. A breezy south wind will develop, keeping temperatures mild.

Long Range

Conditions should remain mild until Christmas, but after that a major pattern change is coming. Models suggest that our first major arctic blast in several weeks will move in on Boxing Day. That might have many folks doing their post-Christmas shopping online, as opposed to venturing out into an unfamiliar chill.

The NAEFS is predicting below-normal temperatures in the 8-14 day time period.
The NAEFS is predicting below-normal temperatures in the 8-14 day time period.

Warm Spell Comes to an End

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The little warm spell we’ve been in over the past several days has come to an end. Cooler temperatures are in store for this week, but conditions will remain above-normal.

Cooler weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Cooler weather is expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
-8°C / -13°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries

Today will see temperatures fall from the very mild conditions experienced on the week. High temperatures will be in the upper minus single digits, with a gusty north wind. There is a chance of flurries during the day, particularly in the morning. Unfortunately, even this change in the weather isn’t expected to reveal the sun, as we continue to languish under mainly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-11°C / -15°C
Mainly sunny

Tuesday will be slightly colder than Monday, but not by much. High temperatures will be around the -10°C mark, with a light north-west wind. The sun should finally come out, making for a mainly sunny day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-10°C / -18°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will see temperatures that are very similar to Tuesday. Highs will once again be near the -10°C mark. Winds will be light, making for a fairly pleasant day. Cloud cover will be variable, with generally a mix of sun and cloud through the day.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll see a gradual warming trend as we move towards the weekend. Temperatures will likely move towards the mid minus single digits, which is still above-normal for this time of year. No major arctic blasts are currently in the forecast, allowing our mild December to continue!

Winter Takes a Vacation

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Winter will take a vacation this week, as temperatures soar well above seasonal values.

Cooler temperatures are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Cooler temperatures are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
-10°C / -20°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of flurries

Today will be our last taste of arctic air for awhile! High temperatures today will be around or just below -10C with a breezy north-west wind. There may be some light flurries during the day, particularly in the morning, but they shouldn’t amount to much, if anything.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-7°C / -8°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be a bit warmer than Monday, as a strong southerly flow brings warm air into southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be in the minus single digits, which is slightly above-normal for this time of year. The only downside is that it will be very windy, with south winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h. Temperatures will not decrease much on Tuesday night as that strong wind keeps conditions mild.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-2°C / -2°C
Mainly Sunny

High temperatures on Wednesday will approach or exceed the freezing mark in most of southern Manitoba. South-western sections of the province should reach the freezing mark, while areas in the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba remain just below freezing. Winds will remain gusty and from the south.

Long Range

The NAEFS model suggests that above-normal weather will last through mid-December
The NAEFS model suggests that above-normal weather will last through mid-December

The long range forecast is looking very good. Models are in strong agreement that our weather will remain above-normal for the foreseeable future. In fact, later this week temperatures will likely be well-above normal, with multiple days potentially being above freezing. There is no sign of any major cool-downs in the forecast – enjoy it while it lasts!