Warmer than Normal, but Still Cool

Conditions will remain at or above normal this week, unfortunately “normal” continues to get colder by the day.

A cool westerly flow will dominate southern Manitoba on Monday

A cool westerly flow will dominate southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
8°C / 2°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Today will be mild by early November standards, but that doesn’t mean it will be warm. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper single digits in southern Manitoba with a brisk westerly wind. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud as an upper-level weather system moves across Manitoba.

Tuesday

Tuesday
4°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers or flurries

Tuesday will be cooler than Monday as we see a brisk north-westerly flow behind a departing low pressure system. Temperatures will generally be in the mid single digits under mainly cloudy skies. There may be a few flurries or rain showers, but no significant accumulations are expected.

Wednesday

Wednesday
3°C / 1°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers/flurries

Wednesday will see continued cool weather in southern Manitoba with temperatures in the low to mid single digits, but lighter winds than what we saw earlier in the week. Skies will remain mainly cloudy and we may once again see some light flurries or rain showers.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll continue to see normal to above-normal weather for at least the next week or so. Beyond that model solutions diverge, with equal chances of us ending up above or below normal.

Cooling Down for Awhile

Conditions will cool down this week, but temperatures won’t stray that far from normal.


A cold front will pass through southern Manitoba on Monday
A cold front will pass through southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
10°C / 2°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Today will be a transition day as a cold front moves through southern Manitoba. The front won’t pass through in dramatic fashion, so you probably won’t even notice it. However, it will set up cooler weather for the next few days. Despite the passage of that front, temperatures today will remain above seasonal, with highs near 10C and light winds.

Tuesday

Tuesday
4°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers or flurries

Tuesday will be a much cooler day in the wake of Monday’s cold front. High temperatures will be in the single digits with a breezy north-west wind. There may be some light showers or even gasp flurries during the day, but accumulations should be minimal.

Wednesday

Wednesday
5°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy

Wednesday will remain on the cool side with temperatures remaining in the single digits. No precipitation is expected, but skies will likely be mainly cloudy. The wind will be light and from the south or south-east.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look good. The NAEFS suggests that above-normal weather will persist into November. So far there is no sign of any significant snowfall in the forecast, which is always a good thing!

Above-Normal Temperatures to Start the Week

More above-normal weather is in store to start the week – what’s not to like!

Temperatures on Monday will be near normal in Southern Manitoba
Temperatures on Monday will be near normal in Southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
11°C / 3°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will see near normal temperatures in southern Manitoba. Highs will be around or just above 10C with mainly sunny skies. Winds will be light, making for pleasant conditions overall.

Tuesday

Tuesday
17°C / 8°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will see above-normal conditions return to southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens with skies remaining mainly sunny. A strong south-east wind will be in place throughout the day, putting a bit of an edge on what would otherwise be a very nice day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
16°C / 8°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Warm weather will continue on Wednesday, with temperatures remaining in the mid teens. A weak low pressure system is expected to pass through southern Manitoba during the day, possibly producing some showers in its vicinity. This system will also likely bring in some heavier cloud cover, so Wednesday probably won’t be as sunny as Monday and Tuesday.

Long Range

Long range modelling suggests that above-normal weather [1] will continue through the end of October. That doesn’t mean that every single day will be warmer than normal, but the majority should be. Enjoy the pleasant end to October!


  1. Normal highs for the last stretch of October sit around 9°C.  ↩

The “Meteorological Cliff”

After a week of relatively pleasant, albeit somewhat sloppy, weather in Southern Manitoba we’re headed for a kind of meteorological cliff. Our weather will change dramatically this Friday, as colder and snowier weather moves in.

Location of the

Before we head off this cliff, our weather will remain very nice. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low minus single digits in Southern Manitoba. There may even be a few zero degree readings in south-western sections of Manitoba late in the day as warmer air surges into Manitoba. On Thursday we should reach our warmest temperatures of the week with values in the low (positive) single digits expected. Some of the traditional warm spots in Southern Manitoba may reach values slightly warmer than that. The daytime hours of Thursday will be fairly nice in most of Southern Manitoba, but conditions will begin to change in the afternoon in western areas as snow begins to move in.

Our trek off the meteorological cliff will begin on Thursday night, as snow develops over Southern Manitoba. The snow is expected to begin on Thursday afternoon (or early evening) in Western Manitoba, eventually moving spreading through the remainder of Southern Manitoba by late Thursday evening or very early Friday morning. Total accumulations from this initial batch of snow will generally be in the 2 to 5cm range in Southern Manitoba. By Friday morning temperatures will have fallen into the mid minus teens over much of Southern Manitoba. Snow is expected to taper off from west to east in Southern Manitoba on Friday morning, with south-eastern sections seeing snow linger the longest. The second wave of snow moves in on Friday night. This wave will be generated as a strong Colorado Low system moves up from the south. At this point it appears that this secondary wave of snow will bring another 2 to 4cm to Winnipeg and another 4 to 8cm to south-eastern Manitoba. It is entirely possible that the amounts from this secondary area of snow could be higher or lower than listed above. Depending on where the system ends up tracking Winnipeg could end up with more snow, or perhaps none at all. However, I do believe south-eastern Manitoba will receive some snow during this time period, though again it could be more or less than I have listed above.

Location of the

A secondary concern will develop on Friday as strong north winds develop in response to the intensification of the Colorado Low. At this point it appears that northerly winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, or maybe even 50km/h gusting to 70km/h on a more localized basis, will materialize on Friday. This could create significant travel difficulties as blizzard conditions, or near blizzard conditions may develop as these very strong winds interact with the fresh snow. It is too early to say exactly how bad things may get, but this is certainly something that will need to be monitored closely over the next few days. Please continue to check back with A Weather Moment for further updates on this developing weather story.

After this Colorado Low passes by, conditions will turn calm, but cold. At this point most models keep us in very cold air for basically all of the next ten days. Arctic air doesn’t make a habit of moving around very quickly, so it is likely that we’ll remain in this arctic air mass for an extended period of time. There may be some warmer days here and there, but those details are not yet known with any certainty.

Enjoy these last couple warm days, as winter is quietly waiting to push us off the meteorological cliff.