Author: Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

Rain, Rain, Go Away

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More rain is on the way to Southern Manitoba this week thanks to the development of a significant low pressure system through Saskatchewan & North Dakota, but we should squeeze in one more day of nice weather before it arrives.

This Week

Today will be the last decent day before another unsettled pattern builds in as temperatures reach the mid twenties under mainly sunny skies. We’ll be located north of a sharp warm front, causing our winds to be gusty out of the north-east through the day. Cloud cover will likely begin to roll in late in the afternoon or evening, signalling the end of the nice weather. Overnight rain and thunderstorms from North Dakota will lift into southern Manitoba, ushering in more unsettled weather for the next couple days. Overnight rainfall amounts will be difficult to pin down, but 5-15 mm seems probable in most areas, with locally higher amounts in the more intense cells.

Today will be warm and breezy as we sit north of a warm front
Today will be warm and breezy as we sit north of a warm front

Tuesday will see rain ending in the morning, before drier conditions move in for midday. It appears possible that more showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, especially if there are some breaks in the cloud to allow for daytime heating. Additional rainfall will be sporadic with isolated patches of moderate amounts in showers and thunderstorms. Winds in the Red River Valley are expected to be southerly near 20 km/h.

A cold front will pass through southern Manitoba by Wednesday morning, allowing cooler air to filter down from the north. High temperatures will only be in the mid teens under mainly cloudy skies. Additional showers are likely through the day on Wednesday, but large accumulations are not expected. Winds will be gusty from the north-west at 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.

Long Range

It appears that we will return to a warmer pattern by the end of the week. However, models also hint at numerous chances for storms in an unsettled northwesterly flow 5-10 days from now. Temperatures will likely be near or slightly above seasonal during this time period, although some cool downs will likely be interspersed within the warmer periods.

Nice End to the Long Weekend

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The Victoria Day long weekend will end with good weather after an unsettled Sunday and warm conditions are expected to continue into midweek.

Warm temperatures are expected in southern Manitoba
Warm temperatures are expected in southern Manitoba

This Week

Today will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. Skies are expected to be mainly sunny with temperatures climbing into the mid twenties. There will be a slight risk of thunderstorms in the morning in the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba as some instability remains ahead of a weak cold front. The risk of storms should end by the afternoon as westerly winds remove the moist air mass from the region.

Tuesday will be another pleasant day, with temperatures in the mid to upper twenties and mainly sunny skies. A southerly flow will be in place over southern Manitoba, with wind speeds around 20 km/h.

Wednesday will be an unsettled day in southern Manitoba. A south-easterly flow will bring a moist air mass back to the region, causing the atmosphere to become unstable. There will be a risk of thunderstorms in most of southern Manitoba, but at this time it remains unclear how strong storms will become. Models currently show marginal conditions for severe thunderstorms, although it is too early to say what type of risk we’ll end up seeing.

Long Range

Long range models continue to show generally above-seasonal temperatures for southern Manitoba over the next couple weeks. We should see these warm-hot conditions last into early June, if not longer than that. We are only a month away from the beginning of summer, so it is become less likely we’ll see any prolonged periods of cold weather.

Sunny Skies and Warm Temperatures this Week

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This week will feature a return sunny skies and warm temperatures, weather that we haven’t seen a lot of over the last week.

A surface high over Manitoba will bring sunny skies and mild temperatures
A surface high over Manitoba will bring sunny skies and mild temperatures

This Week

Today will be one of the cooler days this because we’ll still be in the coolish air mass leftover from the surge of arctic air late last week. However, high temperatures will still be in the upper teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be from the north as we’ll still be on the western edge of an upper trough, but the wind should shift to a southerly component on Monday night.

Tuesday will see even warmer conditions as temperatures climb into the low twenties. An upper ridge will begin building over southern Manitoba, which means Tuesday will be the first of many seasonably warm days. Winds will be light on Tuesday and skies are expected to remain sunny.

The forecast for Wednesday is a bit more uncertain than Monday and Tuesday because a shortwave trough is expected to push through southern Manitoba. It doesn’t appear this trough will bring any rain to southern Manitoba, but it may bring additional cloud cover to the region. Assuming the cloud cover isn’t too extensive, temperatures should climb into the mid-twenties with breezy south winds.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests that the remainder of May will generally remain warmer than normal. One interesting feature of the long range forecast that bears watching is the potential for our first notable thunderstorm event of the year. Models have been consistent in bringing a large upper trough into western North America by next weekend, which is expected to draw a warm, moist air mass into southern Manitoba. The exact nature of the thunderstorm threat for southern Manitoba remains quite uncertain, but it appears possible we may see our first thunderstorm event of the year at some point on the long weekend.

May Showers on Tap this Week

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After last week’s record breaking heat and overall sunny conditions, our soggy April has quickly turned into a dry May. This week should finally feature some much needed rain, although how much remains to be seen.

Today will be our last hot, sunny day before cooler and greyer conditions build in for the rest of the week. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid twenties over southern Manitoba with a breezy south wind. Skies will likely remain somewhat hazy as smoke from the forest fires over Northern Alberta continues to linger. Enjoy what could be the last hot day for awhile!

Today will feature warm weather once again in southern Manitoba, but low pressure to the south will bring rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Today will feature warm weather once again in southern Manitoba, but low pressure to the south will bring rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday will remain mild, but some rainfall is expected as a strong low pressure system pushes up from the south. Showery rains are expected throughout the day, although it will be hard to make an accurate forecast for how much rain will fall. At this point it appears that 2-6 mm is a reasonable range, although some areas may see no rain, while others see more than 6 mm. Winds will be south-easterly at 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h, while temperatures sit in the upper teens.

Wednesday will see the low pressure system from Tuesday continue to stick around and bring more rain to southern Manitoba. Accumulations of 2-6 mm will be possible once again on Wednesday, with the same caveat that amounts will vary on a localized basis. Temperatures will remain in the upper teens, with southerly winds of 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

It appears that the rest of this week will be on the cooler side as we experience a brisk northerly flow behind the low pressure system that brought us the rainfall. Models suggest that the remainder of the first half of May will stay normal to below normal in terms of temperature, before warmer conditions return again for the second half of May. Most long range/seasonal guidance suggests that this summer will generally be warmer than normal, although it is notoriously difficult to predict summer weather in the long range!