Category: Forecasts

Bitter Cold Slowly Loosens Its Grip on Southern Manitoba

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Brisk southerly winds will move through southern Manitoba today as the bitter cold eases across the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday January 21, 2025
Moderate southerly winds will develop in the cold temperatures over the Red River Valley this morning.

It’s a cold start to the day, but a low pressure system dropping into the region from northern Saskatchewan is slowly dragging some milder temperatures back towards the region. It will push a warm front towards the region this morning, bringing light snow to the Red River Valley alongside strengthening southerly winds.

Those winds will climb to 40 gusting 60 km/h hour this morning. Combined with the falling snow, the recent cold, and the ice crystals that fell across the region over the weekend, it’s likely that we’ll see widespread blowing snow through the Red River Valley with some near-blizzard conditions possible on area highways running west-east.

Those southerly winds will keep wind chill values locked into the -30s despite the temperature warming into the -20 to -15 °C range.

As the low moves into southern Manitoba this afternoon, the winds will ease as the light snow mostly pushes out of the region. Some lingering flurries will be possible into the evening as temperatures reach as high as around -15 °C.

The low will exit the region overnight, bringing northerly winds back that usher in another push of Arctic air. Temperatures will dip close to -20 °C on Tuesday night under clearing skies. Temperatures will only recover a few degrees on Wednesday with breezy northwest winds around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Some local blowing snow is likely in the areas surrounding Winnipeg and skies should be partly cloudy to mixed.

Temperatures will head back into the -30 to -25 °C range on Wednesday night, but easing winds should keep wind chill values to the mid-minus 30s or so.

Thursday will be a cool day with temperatures returning to a high in the low minus teens under sunny skies.

Long Range Outlook

On Friday, a low pressure system moving through the southern Arctic will push a much broader swath of milder temperatures across the Prairies. For Winnipeg, this will mean temperatures won’t drop much on Thursday night as southerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h redevelop through the Red River Valley.

On Friday, more cloud and light snow will move through the region as temperatures warm back up into the low minus single digits.

The weekend should bring pleasant winter weather with near-seasonal temperatures across the Red River Valley with a couple chances of light snow.

Looking ahead to the longer-range trends, it looks like January should wrap up trending on the milder side, though early February could bring another outbreak of bitterly cold air. There are no major snowfall events in the short or medium-range outlook for the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Alberta Clipper Plunges Winnipeg Into Bitter Cold

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An Alberta clipper exiting the province will bring strong to severe north winds and blizzard conditions to the Red River Valley. Behind this system, strong northerly winds will drive a massive outbreak of Arctic air through region, sending Winnipeg into the deep freeze.

Strong northerly winds in the Red River Valley will drive bitterly cold Arctic air southwards into the region.

Temperatures in the Winnipeg area will plunge from close to freezing early this morning into the -15 to -20 °C range this afternoon, driven by northerly winds blasting through the region. A cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley early this morning, ushering in northwest winds that will strengthen to as high as 60 gusting 90 km/h. Combined with flurries moving through the region, these winds will likely produce blizzard conditions across much of the Red River Valley, especially in areas west of Winnipeg. The Elie-Portage la Prairie corridor of the Trans-Canada Highway will likely be exceptionally hazardous and very well could close today.

In Winnipeg, visibilities may not deteriorate as much as areas outside the city as the recent warm weather and limited new snow may limit the ability for substantial blowing snow development.

Conditions will begin to improve this evening. Winds will ease to 30 gusting 50 km/h after the sun goes down, bringing an end to most of the blowing snow across the region. Temperatures will drop down into the mid-minus 20s as skies clear with wind chills in the mid-minus 30s.

The weekend will be dominated by a strong Arctic high building into the Prairies. Daytime highs will likely sit in the -25 to -20 °C range with overnight lows dropping towards -30 °C. Skies will be clear through the weekend as the northwest winds gradually shift towards the west and weaken. Wind chills will dip down into the -35 to -40 range at night and will bring a chance for extreme cold warnings across the region at some point over the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

The bitter cold will stay entrenched over the region through the first half of next week. Several long-range weather models show warmer weather arriving in the region mid-week with a chance for some accumulating snow.

Stay safe today; if you must travel on area highways, make sure you have a winter survival kit in your car in case of an emergency. Make sure to cover up if you need to spend time outside this weekend as a northwest wind will be persistent over the coming days.

And just as a final note, we hope the start of 2025 finds you well. Life has kept me extremely busy over the last 6 weeks with family events, Christmas, and moving for a renovation. That didn’t leave much time (or energy) for writing which is why the site went quiet for a while. Things are starting to calm down, so we hope to get back into the rhythm of regular writing soon!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -24 °C.

Clouds Move In As Temperatures Warm

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Cloudier conditions will move back into Winnipeg as a major pattern change brings long-term warming to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Saturday December 21, 2024
Warmer weather will begin working east across the Prairies on Friday night.

After a sunny start today, cloud cover will gradually build into southern Manitoba as warmer air gradually pushes across the Prairies. The weather pattern over the next week or longer will be heavily impacted by the large-scale shift of the upper-level weather pattern. The Polar Vortex, which has been anchored over Baffin Island in Canada’s Eastern Arctic, is shifting back towards the North Pole, and will then continue to move into the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia. This will allow Pacific air to wash east across the Prairies, sending temperatures, eventually, to well above seasonal values.

For Winnipeg, skies should become mixed later this afternoon and cloudy overnight. Temperatures will climb to a high near -18 °C with light winds shifting southerly.

Skies will cloud over tonight with south winds picking up to around 20 km/h. Temperatures will dip into the -20s this evening, then warm to around -15 °C by morning with the thickening cloud.

The weekend will bring cloudy skies to Winnipeg with highs just below -10 °C on Saturday and just a bit warmer than -10 °C on Sunday. Some light snow will be possible on Saturday as a warm front pushes across the region, but no notable accumulations are expected. Overnight lows will sit in the -15 to -10 °C range both Saturday night and Sunday night. Additionally, southerly winds of 30 to 40 km/h will develop over the region for Saturday, but should be calmer on Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the holidays, warmer weather will continue to build across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb to around 0 °C by Christmas Day, then continue to warm into the 0 to +5 °C range for much of the rest of the week.

No significant precipitation is expected next week. The warmer conditions will last through next weekend, then a crash back towards colder weather is likely for the new year.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Colder Winter Weather Settles In

Brad 1 Comment

After a mild weekend that brought cloud, freezing drizzle, and a fresh coating of snow, colder weather will settle over southern Manitoba this week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 15Z Wednesday December 18, 2024
Parts of the Prairies will see bitterly cold temperatures on Wednesday morning as an Arctic high moves through the region.

As the low pressure system that impacted the region trundles off to the east, a ridge of high pressure will build southeast out of the Arctic into Manitoba. This will bring gradually clearing skies to the region today. The lingering cloud will produce a bit of light snow through the day with temperatures hovering near -10 °C through the day. Skies will clear tonight in Winnipeg with temperatures falling to a low in the -25 to -20 °C range.

Wednesday will bring mainly sunny skies to the region as an Arctic ridge sits over southern Manitoba. Temperatures will struggle to recover much during the day with daytime highs only reaching around -20 °C in the afternoon.

The region will be saved from a bitterly cold night on Wednesday night, courtesy of a low pressure system sliding through the southern Prairies. Cloud cover and light snow will build into the region through the night. This will keep temperatures relatively warm with lows in the -25 to -20 °C range.

By Thursday morning, snowfall accumulations in Winnipeg will likely be 2 cm or less, but amounts will increase to the east-southeast up to 5 to 10 cm in Brandon and 10 to 15 cm in Melita. The snow will taper off on Thursday with clearing skies. Temperatures will climb to a high near -15 °C on Thursday. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures will head back down into the mid-minus 20s on Thursday night.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the end of the week, Friday will bring more cold weather with a high in the -20 to -15 °C range, but then a significant pattern change develops as the Polar Vortex retreats towards the pole and an upper ridge builds into western Canada.

This will bring increasing cloud to the region as temperatures warm through the weekend with strengthening southerly winds. Temperatures will be well-above seasonal heading into next week with several above-freezing daytime highs possible!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.