Category: Forecasts

Colorado Low Poised to Bring Fresh Snow to Manitoba as Warm Weather Continues

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Cloudy skies, mist/fog, drizzle, and mild temperatures will continue for a couple more days in the Winnipeg area. The weather will finally change across southern Manitoba on Wednesday night as a Colorado Low begins to spread waves of precipitation into the province.

ECMWF Precipitation Type Forecast valid 18Z Thursday February 8, 2024.ECMWF Total Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 00Z Saturday February 10, 2024.
Waves of mixed precipitation will move into southern Manitoba on Thursday. This Colorado Low will bring accumulating snow to most of southern Manitoba.

The next couple days in Winnipeg will bring more of what the city has seen lately: plenty of cloud, mist and fog patches, and occasional drizzle. A ridge of high pressure moving across the Red River Valley will keep things stagnant with light northerly winds. The trend of temperatures well above normal will continue with highs a couple degrees above freezing and lows right near the freezing point.

Then, the most notable weather system in weeks will begin to impact the region on Wednesday night. As I mentioned in Thursday’s post, long-range models were developing a Colorado Low-like system and pushing it quickly eastwards. I mentioned that I wouldn’t be surprised to see this system pull further west as it approached and…that’s what has happened with the forecast models over the past few days.

A Colorado Low will eject northeastwards on Wednesday, reaching South Dakota by Thursday morning and then into Minnesota by Thursday evening. As it draws closer to Manitoba, it will begin to spread waves of precipitation into the province. The first couple waves, arriving Wednesday night and Thursday morning could bring a wintery mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain to the Red River Valley. As those move off to the northwest, the region will see a break with cloudy skies and a chance of drizzle.

By later Thursday, northerly winds will strengthen across the region and begin to draw cooler air into the region. More snow will be possible Thursday evening through much of Friday before it finally tapers off.

There is a wide range of snowfall accumulations possible with this system, and at this point there is significant uncertainty as to where the axis of heaviest snow will set up in the province. In general, many areas of the province will receive 5 to 10 cm of fresh snow, with 10 to 20 cm possible in the swath of highest accumulation. Amounts could creep even higher on the northern slopes of the Turtle and Riding Mountains where northerly winds enhance the snowfall along the terrain.

With the notable uncertainty that remains with how this system will set up over the province, I recommend you check the updated forecasts on ECCC’s weather website over the coming days.

Daytime highs in Winnipeg will fall into the -5 to 0 °C range by the end of the week with overnight lows in the -20 to -10 °C range depending on how much clearing is able to move into the region.

Long Range Outlook

The weekend will bring cooler — but still above normal — temperatures to the region. Daytime highs will dip to around -5 °C with lows dependent on how cloudy the nights stay. With clearing, lows could drop into the -20 to -15 °C range, but if it stays cloudier then lows could hover near -10 °C.

Hopefully the region will see a bit of sun this weekend, but there’s a chance things do stay on the cloudier side.

Next week will continue the trend with daytime highs near -5 °C and overnight lows in the -10 to -20 °C range as light westerly winds develop over the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

More Dry, Mild Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

Brad 1 Comment

Like we mentioned in our forecast earlier this week…it’s steady going as the mild conditions persist through southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday February 3, 2024
Above-normal temperatures will be in place over the Prairies for another weekend.

An upper ridge continues to dominate the Prairies, bringing a Spring-like pattern to the region. Mild weather continues across the entire region with daytime highs over 10 °C above seasonal values.

Highs in Winnipeg will continue to reach 2 to 5 °C over the next few days. Breezy southerly winds will develop today, strengthening to 30 gusting 50 km/h, that will begin to ease in the evening. Overnight lows will dip into the -5 to 0 °C range.

With the warm weather, fog may be an issue each night as the melt is caught under a strong inversion.

Skies will start with plenty of sunshine today, but could cloud over this afternoon if an area of low cloud in Minnesota reaches far enough westwards as it pivots northwards into Canada. Heading further into the weekend, skies will trend cloudier as a weak low pressure system begins to track eastwards across the Prairies.

Little precipitation is expected for the area this weekend, but there could be light drizzle or flurries across the region on Sunday as the low moves into the area.

Long Range Outlook

Next week, cloudier conditions will develop for Winnipeg as a low pressure system crosses the province. In its wake, temperatures will cool below freezing but stay well above seasonal values.

Long-range forecast models show indications that a Colorado Low could impact the region by the end of the week. The more reliable long-range models have it more progressive and keep its impacts south and east of Manitoba, but sometimes weather models under-develop the upper troughs associated with these systems and they can end up slower and further west than initially forecast. That said, more moisture wouldn’t be a terrible thing for southern Manitoba at this point.

We hope you can get out and enjoy the pleasant weather this weekend! We’ll see you back here next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.

Mild Week Ahead for Winnipeg

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Temperatures will stay well above normal values this week as mild Pacific air continues to wash over southern Manitoba.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday January 31, 2024
Mild Pacific air will bring above-seasonal temperatures to most of the Canadian Prairies this week.

Persistent upper ridging over western Canada will keep a steady stream of milder air from the Pacific flowing over the region this week. As a result, daytime highs in the mid-single digits will persist through the week, while overnight lows dip to, or a few degrees below, freezing.

Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness over the coming days, trending cloudier in the second half of the week. Breezy southerly winds will develop over the region today, but winds will then ease for the next couple days.

Notable with this warmth, Winnipeg will likely see dew point temperatures climb above freezing in the days ahead. This will help make a significant dent in the snow pack over the region; when dew point temperatures climb above freezing, the warmth can dramatically increase the amount of melt that can occur. As a result, not only will the snow situation across the city look different at the end of the week, fog will be a likely sight overnight and in the early mornings through the course of the week.

Long Range Outlook

Cloudier weather will move in for the weekend, but with that will come more warm weather with overnight lows that could even stay above freezing.

The warm weather will continue into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -22 °C.

Warming up This Week in Winnipeg

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It will be a cloudy week in Winnipeg as temperatures climb back towards the freezing mark.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday January 24, 2024
Warmer temperatures will spread across the southern Prairies this week.

With the Polar Vortex retreating into the High Arctic, a zonal flow will develop across the Prairies this week. Mild Pacific air will spread across the region, sending daytime highs climbing back to near- or above-freezing values. Like many warm pushes deep in winter, this warmer weather will be accompanied by plenty of cloud cover.

Today will be the transition day towards the warmer conditions in the Red River Valley. Southerly winds will strengthen through the day as a ridge of high pressure shifts to the east. By the evening, temperatures will climb to around -5 °C with winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h. There may be areas of blowing snow in the open valley, but warmer temperatures and lighter winds than Saturday should make it less of a hazard compared to what the region saw on Saturday.

Skies will stay cloudy with a chance of light snow or freezing drizzle tonight with temperatures hovering around -5 °C and southerly winds continuing. The risk of freezing drizzle could continue into the morning.

On Wednesday, conditions will stay steady until a trough moves into the region midday. Winds will ease as it moves in and temperatures will warm close to the freezing mark in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip back down to around -5 °C on Wednesday night with a chance of light snow.

The tail end of the work week will offer benign weather: mainly cloudy skies, daytime highs near -2 °C, and overnight lows near -5 °C on Thursday night and near -10 °C on Friday night. No notable precipitation look likely for either day.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, the mild conditions will continue with highs in the -5 to 0 °C range and light southerly winds. The clouds may break up more, though, allowing glimpses of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday.

Heading into next week, the mild weather will continue with a chance that daytime highs could climb above freezing. As a bonus, it looks like more sunshine is possible than the region will see this week.

Forecasts show no notable snowfall events through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.