Category: Forecasts

Sunshine Returns as Seasonal Fall Weather Settles In

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Sunshine will gradually return to Winnipeg over the coming days as cooler fall weather settles into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday October 8, 2023
Cooler temperatures will descend into the eastern Prairies for the weekend while warmth builds in the west.

The Red River Valley will see mixed skies today as an unsettled air mass moves through the region. Cool temperatures combined with north-northwest winds will result in some persistent lake-effect rain bands. These could be a bit intense at times, and will shift eastwards and weaken as the day progresses. This will result in a chance of showers for many areas in the Red River Valley this morning, then tapering off into the afternoon.

It will be a cool day across the region; highs will reach around 10 °C with northwest winds around 30 gusting 50 km/h. The showers and cloud will clear out this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Temperatures overnight will bring a good chance of some frost to the region as the winds taper off and temperatures dip to around 0 °C.

A weak disturbance rippling along in the flow could bring a few showers to southern Manitoba on Saturday morning, but it looks like the precipitation will likely stay north of the Red River Valley.

A ridge of high pressure will keep things on the sunnier side through the weekend with seasonal highs in the low teens and overnight lows dipping close to the freezing mark.

Long Range Outlook

Through the weekend, an upper ridge will build in the west and some warmer weather will move into Alberta and Saskatchewan. For Manitoba, a deep upper trough is forecast to shift east and mature in to a broad vortex that stalls out over eastern Canada, perhaps even retrograding a bit into next week.

As a result, the warm air will be shunted northwards into the Northwest Territories and Nunavut while cooler near-seasonal temperatures likely remain entrenched over Manitoba through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.

Summer Heat Returns This Weekend in Winnipeg

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Winnipeg will see one last blast of summer this weekend before fall weather moves in next week. Daytime highs in the upper 20s and the risk of severe thunderstorms return to southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday October 1, 2023
Warm and humid late-season warmth will push into southern Manitoba on Sunday with highs in the upper 20s and relatively humid conditions.

The work week will end on a pleasant note in Winnipeg with mixed skies today and a daytime high in the low 20s. Temperatures will dip down into the mid-single digits tonight, a cooler low thanks to a weak area of high pressure moving through the province.

On Saturday, the region will see light east-southeast winds as temperatures climb back up into the low 20s. Skies should stay mainly sunny through the day, but some cloud could start pushing into the region later in the day.

Heading through Saturday night into Sunday, there will be a very strong push of warmer air northwards as a low pressure system lifts through the United States towards the southeastern Prairies. A warm front will push northwards through the night with notable late-season instability developing towards Sunday morning.

By early Sunday morning, MUCAPE values are forecast to climb above 1,000 J/kg as moist air sourced from dew points in the upper teens ascends over the warm front. This will likely support elevated convection into Sunday morning, starting in SW Manitoba and progressing east-northeast. There is a risk that some of these thunderstorms could be severe with the main threat being large hail.

Sunday will be a very warm day if everything goes as planned. The warm front will lift north of Winnipeg, putting the city back into a hot and humid air mass. Temperatures will likely climb into the upper 20s with dew points reaching the high teens, making it feel more like low to mid 30s. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible near the warm front late in the day, but it’s just as likely that the capping inversion will hold.

Temperatures will dip back down into the mid-teens on Sunday night with cloudier skies and a chance of showers.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will mark the slow transition to more fall-like weather across the region. Winnipeg will see cloudier skies with numerous chances for showers as the daytime highs gradually drop from around 20 °C to around 10 °C. Even cooler weather may move into the region to start the week after, so enjoy that last blast of summer warmth on Sunday before the chill sets in!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.

Beautiful September Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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With temperatures into the 20s in the coming days, Winnipeg will see some beautiful late-September conditions. But a change late in the week will usher in a period of unsettled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday September 26, 2023
Southern Manitoba will see mild temperatures this afternoon as a weak ride of high pressure keeps winds light.

There will be no complaints about the next couple days in Winnipeg as an upper ridge brings sunshine and warmer temperatures back to the region. Highs will climb into the mid-20s today in Winnipeg with light winds as a weak surface ridge lingers over the region. Skies will be sunny through the day and into the night. Temperatures will dip down to around 10 °C tonight.

On Wednesday, temperatures will climb back into the low 20s as a few clouds build into the region along with breezy southerly winds. By mid-afternoon, most of the Red River Valley should see southerlies up into the 30 to 40 km/h range. Those winds will continue overnight in the 20 to 30 km/h range, keeping lows mild in the mid-teens. Along with the wind, skies will likely cloud over as a trough of low pressure moves towards the region.

On Thursday, winds will strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h by midday in the Red River Valley. These winds will be strongest just ahead of the warm-sector trough crossing through the Red River Valley. As the day progresses, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastwards out of the United States; this could bring showers or non-severe thunderstorms to parts of southwestern Manitoba or the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will again climb to around the 20 °C mark.

A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday night, clearing skies out and allowing the lows to dip back into the single digits.

Long Range Outlook

A series of disturbances will push over southern Manitoba heading towards the weekend thanks to a deepening long-wave trough on the west coast that will continuously eject shortwaves northeastwards. This will likely mean seasonably mild temperatures, mixed to cloudy skies, and chances for areas of showers almost each day.

Current forecasts hold this pattern until early next week, after which cooler air will push back into the region with a return to near-seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.

Wet, Unsettled Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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A slow-moving complex of low pressure systems in the northern United States will spread cloud cover and waves of showers across southern Manitoba through the coming days.

ECMWF Total Accumulated Precipitation valid between 00Z Thursday September 22 and 00Z Monday September 25, 2023
Multiple waves of rain will move across southern Manitoba in the coming days, with the potential for some higher rainfall totals by Sunday evening.

Waves of rain will move through the Red River Valley over the coming days, but it will at least be relatively mild through the weekend. Despite the unsettled weather, daytime highs will climb to around 20 °C over the coming days. The cloud cover will also keep nights warmer with lows dipping down into the mid-teens. Throughout next few days, the wind will also be consistently out of the east, often in the 20 to 30 km/h range.

The rainfall forecast is a bit tricker than all the other elements, largely due to the complexity of the interacting systems south of the border and how thunderstorm activity will evolve as this disturbance matures.

Today, Winnipeg will likely see on and off showers continue through the morning, then things will have a chance to dry out a bit as the showers shift towards the west. Another wave of rain will push into southern Manitoba overnight and persist into Saturday morning. Things should mostly dry out on Saturday afternoon, but a few pop-up showers may be possible if the sun peeks out a bit and warms things up, or depending on the timing of this system, the cloud and rain could drag on later into the day.

The rain will calm down for Saturday evening, but then another broad area of rain will push northwards into Manitoba overnight, this time as the entire system in the United States begins shifting northwards. More rain will likely move through, and then lingering showers or drizzle could persist through the day on Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

The rain should taper off for Monday, but the region could see a lot of leftover cloud cover through the day. By Tuesday, the sun should begin poking out again and Winnipeg will see several pleasant days with highs in the low 20s and lows in the low teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.