Category: Forecasts

Seasonal Temperatures With A Chance of Unsettled Weather

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Seasonal temperatures will continue for much of the week across southern Manitoba, but a passing low pressure system on Saturday may replace sunshine with unsettled conditions.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday September 14, 2023
A low pressure system crossing Manitoba will bring warmer weather to the region on Thursday.

A collapsing upper ridge will gradually push into Manitoba as it weaken over the next couple days, bringing plenty of sunshine but not too much warmth. High temperatures in Winnipeg will sit close to 20 °C over the next couple days with a few clouds on Wednesday afternoon. The winds will be light on Tuesday, but could reach up to 30 km/h on Wednesday afternoon.

More cloud will move into the region on Wednesday night as a low pressure system crossing the northern Prairies pushes a warmer air mass into the region. Some showers might move through the region overnight Wednesday as this warmer air pushes in. This warmer air mass will help with overnight lows; Wednesday night will likely only drop into the low teens, compared to a low near 5 °C tonight.

On Thursday, highs temperatures will climb towards the mid-20s across southern Manitoba. Instability will grow through the day as a warm-sector trough pushes into the Red River Valley. As a result, there will actually be a small chance of some showers or thunderstorms later in the afternoon and early evening. With only around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20–25 knots of bulk shear, any severe weather is highly unlikely. 

A cold front will sweep through on Thursday night, bringing seasonal temperatures back to the region on Friday.

Long Range Outlook

The region will see near-seasonal temperatures along with a mix of sun and cloud into the weekend. There will be a slight chance of showers on Friday night as some wrap-around precipitation moves across the region as an upper low exits the region.

Some warmer weather will likely push in to start next week with daytime highs climbing back towards the mid-twenties.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 7 °C.

Pleasant Weekend Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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A broad area of high pressure moving into Manitoba will bring seasonal temperatures and plenty of sunshine for the weekend.

ECMWF 10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 00Z Saturday September 10, 2023
A broad area of high pressure will move through Manitoba this weekend.

It will be quiet weather for Winnipeg and area over the next several days as a broad area of high pressure builds eastwards across the Prairies. This system will bring daytime highs in the low 20s to the region over the next few days with overnight lows in the 5–10 °C range. The days will bring light northerly winds with calm conditions at night. And most days will bring morning sun that gives way to a few afternoon clouds.

Some fog patches could be possible overnight on some of the upcoming nights as well.

There’s also no notable chance of precipitation right through the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into next week, the seasonal temperatures will continue right through the week . A low pressure system could move into the region mid-week, bringing southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and a chance of showers.

All in all, there’s lots of pleasant September weather ahead, so hopefully you can get out there and enjoy it!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Showers and Smoke Today, Pleasant Week Afterwards

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Winnipeg will see morning showers and widespread smoke today as a low pressure system passes by the region. Much more pleasant weather will return for the rest of the week and the start of school.

ECMWF 6-hour Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z Tuesday September 5, 2023ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Tuesday September 5, 2023
Some lingering [thunder]showers will push off into Ontario on Tuesday morning, leaving behind a relatively cool day with highs near the 20 °C mark across southern Manitoba.

After the night’s heavier rain, a few showers or thunderstorms will drift northeastwards early this morning, clearing out of the Red River Valley as a low pressure system moves into Ontario. In its wake, widespread smoke will linger through much of southern Manitoba. This will give very poor air quality to the region and has resulted in a special air quality statement from the MSC. Winnipeg will likely see mainly cloudy skies today, though some late-day sun is possible. It will be a cool day, though, contrasting with the weekend heat as the daytime high only climbs to around 20 °C. Breezy northerly winds will abate this evening as skies clear. Temperatures will head down to a low near 10 °C.

Heading into the rest of the week, a steady and relatively stable pattern develops for the Winnipeg area. With a generally zonal flow aloft and disturbances tracking well to the north, conditions will trend fairly sunny throughout the Red River Valley. Smoke may be noticeable on a couple days through the rest of the week, but it’s unlikely to get anywhere near as bad as Tuesday’s conditions. And temperature-wise, there’s no complaints for the rest of the week with near-seasonal values expected. Highs will sit in the low 20s with lows dipping into the upper single digits.

Long Range Outlook

It currently looks like more of the same in the Red River Valley for the weekend and start of next week. Smoke will be the only wildcard in the long-range forecast, so we’ll keep our eyes peeled in case the potential for another bout of poor air quality arises.

After today’s smokey weather clears out, enjoy the beautiful late-summer weather!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Warmer Weather Returns to Southern Manitoba

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A warmer air mass will gradually push into southern Manitoba this week with highs back in the upper 20s for the second half of the week.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Thursday August 31, 2023
Warmer weather will continue to build into southern Manitoba on Thursday with temperatures approaching the 30 °C mark.

An upper ridge building into the eastern Prairies will bring seasonably warm temperatures back to the region. Before that happens, though, there will be one more day of seasonal warmth in Winnipeg as a disturbance passes by. It will bring mixed skies to the region today with highs climbing into the mid-20s. Winds won’t be much of an issue either, climbing into the 20–30 km/h range out of the south.

Smoke will be a bit of an issue this morning, but air quality should improve as the day progresses.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with a low temperature around 10 °C.

On Wednesday, the heat will begin to push into the region as a warm front edges into the region. Winnipeg should see a high in mid- to upper-20s with sunny skies. Winds won’t be too much of an issue, again climbing into the 20–30 km/h range out of the south. The region will see clear skies on Wednesday night with a low in the mid-teens.

On Thursday, a low pressure complex will begin lifting through Saskatchewan and the Dakotas towards the province. Highs will likely be a couple degrees warmer than Wednesday with cloud working into the region for the afternoon. The wind will be a lot more noticeable on Thursday, picking up out of the south into the 40 gusting 60 km/h range. This system will bring some showers or thunderstorms to western Manitoba in the morning. Those showers will lift to the north, then instability will build eastwards through the day.

By late-afternoon, a risk of thunderstorms will develop over the Red River Valley and areas east. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms; with 500–1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40–50 knots of bulk shear, any thunderstorms that develop would likely become fairly well organized with a primary threat of damaging hail and wind gusts. The risk of thunderstorms will continue into the evening, gradually shifting eastwards as the night goes on.

Long Range Outlook

Settled conditions will return to southern Manitoba on Friday with highs again in the upper 20s. On the weekend, even more heat will build into the region with daytime highs climbing into the low 30s. It’s a bit unclear how humid it will be, but there is a chance that it could be rather uncomfortable.

A cold front is expected to sweep through the region and bring more seasonal temperatures back to the region to start the new week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.