Category: Forecasts

Warmer Weather Returns to Southern Manitoba

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A warmer air mass will gradually push into southern Manitoba this week with highs back in the upper 20s for the second half of the week.

ECMWF 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Thursday August 31, 2023
Warmer weather will continue to build into southern Manitoba on Thursday with temperatures approaching the 30 °C mark.

An upper ridge building into the eastern Prairies will bring seasonably warm temperatures back to the region. Before that happens, though, there will be one more day of seasonal warmth in Winnipeg as a disturbance passes by. It will bring mixed skies to the region today with highs climbing into the mid-20s. Winds won’t be much of an issue either, climbing into the 20–30 km/h range out of the south.

Smoke will be a bit of an issue this morning, but air quality should improve as the day progresses.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with a low temperature around 10 °C.

On Wednesday, the heat will begin to push into the region as a warm front edges into the region. Winnipeg should see a high in mid- to upper-20s with sunny skies. Winds won’t be too much of an issue, again climbing into the 20–30 km/h range out of the south. The region will see clear skies on Wednesday night with a low in the mid-teens.

On Thursday, a low pressure complex will begin lifting through Saskatchewan and the Dakotas towards the province. Highs will likely be a couple degrees warmer than Wednesday with cloud working into the region for the afternoon. The wind will be a lot more noticeable on Thursday, picking up out of the south into the 40 gusting 60 km/h range. This system will bring some showers or thunderstorms to western Manitoba in the morning. Those showers will lift to the north, then instability will build eastwards through the day.

By late-afternoon, a risk of thunderstorms will develop over the Red River Valley and areas east. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms; with 500–1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40–50 knots of bulk shear, any thunderstorms that develop would likely become fairly well organized with a primary threat of damaging hail and wind gusts. The risk of thunderstorms will continue into the evening, gradually shifting eastwards as the night goes on.

Long Range Outlook

Settled conditions will return to southern Manitoba on Friday with highs again in the upper 20s. On the weekend, even more heat will build into the region with daytime highs climbing into the low 30s. It’s a bit unclear how humid it will be, but there is a chance that it could be rather uncomfortable.

A cold front is expected to sweep through the region and bring more seasonal temperatures back to the region to start the new week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Cooler, Cloudier Weather Gives Way to Pleasant Weekend

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Winnipeg will see a much cooler and comfortable day today with cloudier conditions and a chance of showers. For the weekend, a building upper ridge will bring sunshine as warmer weather builds into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday August 25, 2023
Seasonal temperatures will return to southern Manitoba as a broad area of high pressure builds across the Prairies.

Today will be a marked departure from yesterday’s hot and humid weather that led to an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across southern Manitoba, including a potent storm that pummelled NE Winnipeg. With the system responsible for that weather off to our east, today will bring cooler northwest winds that will usher in cloudier skies with a chance of some scattered showers. Temperatures should reach a high near 20 °C with northwest winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h. Skies will clear out later this afternoon, then the wind will die off and temperatures will head to a low on the cooler side of around 10 °C.

For the weekend, Winnipeg should see mainly sunny skies on Saturday with light winds and a high in the low 20s. On Sunday, warmer weather will push in with highs in the mid-20s. Some cloud is likely in the afternoon as a trough of low pressure moves through. This feature might bring a chance of a thunderstorm with it, but it’s looking a bit uncertain at the moment. A cold front will slump southwards overnight as temperatures head to a low in the mid-teens.

The region will likely see some haze through the weekend as well as wildfire smoke once again makes its way into southern Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start off with a couple seasonally-appropriate days; both Monday and Tuesday will bring highs in the 20 to 25 °C range with partly cloudy skies. By mid-week, warmer weather with highs in the mid-20s will return to the region, but we could see another chance for showers or thunderstorms in the latter half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Seasonal Temperatures With Unsettled Conditions

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Winnipeg will see seasonal temperatures in the mid-20s this week, but several passing disturbances will bring chances of showers or thunderstorms to the region.

RDPS 24-hour Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday August 23, 2023
Most of the organized shower activity on Tuesday will spread across the central Prairies, but a few showers are also possible further south in southern Manitoba.

Today will be another cooler day in Winnipeg as easterly winds undercut moisture streaming over the province in the upper-level flow. The city will see easterly winds around the 20 km/h mark much of the day. Skies will likely be cloudy through the day, but a few sunny breaks are possible in the Red River Valley and southeast corner of the province. North of the city in the Interlake, showers are likely through much of the day, while further south the best chances will be early in the morning, then again in the late afternoon. A few thundershowers may be embedded within these showers.

The showers will taper off this evening as the winds diminish and temperatures head to a low in the mid-teens. Skies will stay mainly cloudy overnight as the next disturbance approaches the region.

On Wednesday will be another cloudy day in Winnipeg. Showers and/or thunderstorms will likely push into the southwest corner of the province early in the day, then gradually spread eastwards through the day. By mid-afternoon, the chance of showers or thunderstorms will begin to increase in the Red River Valley. This activity will slump southeastwards through the evening and exit the province overnight. Temperatures will head down to a low in the upper teens on Wednesday night.

On Thursday, a bit of sun will return to the region, but cloud will push back in later in the day as another disturbance pushes towards the region from Alberta. More showers or thunderstorms will develop near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border late in the day and then gradually spread eastwards through the evening. This will bring a chance of thunderstorms or showers to Winnipeg overnight, with a slight chance of showers lingering into Friday morning. The city will see the overnight low dip down into the mid-teens.

Regarding daytime highs, much of the week will bring near-seasonal highs in the low to mid-20s.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, an upper ridge will begin to re-establish itself over the Prairies, bringing more settled conditions. Sunnier weather looks likely for the weekend with daytime highs climbing towards the upper 20s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Cool, Showery Weekend Ahead

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An upper low crossing the Prairies this weekend will keep temperatures cool in southern Manitoba with some showers or thunderstorms likely in the days ahead.

RDPS 12-hour Precipitation Accumulation valid 00Z Saturday August 12, 2023
Rainfall will be scattered throughout southern Manitoba today as showers and thunderstorms develop over the region.

A weak low pressure system will move across southern Manitoba today, the lingering feature from the system that brought 5 to 10 mm of rain to Winnipeg yesterday evening. As this low trundles into the Red River Valley this afternoon, it will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is unlikely; energy will be limited with only 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and bulk shear is also low at only around 15 to 20 knots. A marginally severe thunderstorm with large hail can’t be ruled out, but much of the area will mainly see the chance of showers and shorter-lived pulse thunderstorms.

Much of the activity will taper off in the evening, but a few showers may linger into the night, supported by both a shortwave sliding across the region and a weak trough extending from southern Manitoba northwestwards into central Saskatchewan.

On Saturday, the region will continue to see mixed skies with a slight chance of showers. Much less activity is expected than on Friday; there will be few, if any, features to support and organize showers. A bit of lingering instability may be left behind, but for the most part, mixed skies with just a slight chance of an isolated shower or two is most likely.

On Sunday, another low pressure system is poised to dive southeastwards through the province, bringing a good chance of rain to many parts of southern Manitoba. Some uncertainty remains on the track, but in general areas south of a line that runs roughly from Dauphin to the Whiteshell are likely to see accumulating rain at some point from early Sunday morning through the end of the day.

Temperatures over the next three days will be steady in the 20 to 25 °C while winds will generally be on the lighter side. Winds both today and tomorrow will mainly be westerly, while the passing low will shift the winds more northerly on Sunday.

Long-Range Outlook

It’s looking like unsettled conditions will continue into next week. Monday should bring a reprieve from any wet weather, but the chance of rain will return several times through the rest of the week. Winnipeg’s daytime highs and lows will sit at near-seasonal values through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.