While today will bring cooler highs in the low 20’s to the Red River Valley, the break from the heat will be short-lived. High temperatures will quickly rebound back into the upper 20’s for both Thursday and Friday alongside plenty of sunshine!
Mostly cloudy skies will persist over the Red River Valley today as an upper-level trough moves through the region. The cloudier skies will temperatures lower than the 29-30°C seen over the last couple days; today will reach a high of just 22°C. Winds will be out of the north to northwest at around 15-25 km/h. Skies will clear out overnight as temperatures head to a low near 13°C.
Thursday will be a beautiful day as high pressure moves into the region and brings partly cloudy skies and much warmer temperatures as highs through the Red River Valley rebound to 27-28°C. Winds will be out of the south at 20-30 km/h and humidity levels will be comfortable.
Temperatures will rebound into the upper 20’s across the Red River Valley on Thursday.
Friday will start off with sunshine, but clouds will move in through the day as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Winnipeg may see a chance of shower in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain warm with highs near 28°C, and winds will strengthen out of the south to around 30-40 km/h. The chance for rain will continue on Friday night as temperatures drop to around 18°C.
Long Range
There’s quite a bit of uncertainty for the weekend, but the general idea is that Winnipeg may see a few bouts of showers or thunderstorms as a series of low pressure systems move through. The beginning of next week also looks unsettled, with a slow-moving low pressure system forecast to impact the region, bringing multiple chances for rain across several days.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.
Winnipeg will continue to see above normal temperatures as an upper-level ridge basks the eastern Prairies in summer warmth. Conditions will turn more unsettled on Tuesday, though, with the chance of showers and thunderstorms moving into Southern Manitoba.
Today will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg as temperatures climb to a high near 29°C under sunny skies. Winds will increase out of the southeast to 20 km/h for the afternoon. There’s really not much to say about today; it’ll be great! Temperatures will dip to a mild low near 17°C tonight with partly cloudy skies.
Tomorrow will bring slightly more interesting weather to the region as a trough of low pressure pushes into the region through the morning. Skies will start off partly cloudy, but Winnipeg will see clouds increase through the morning. From midday into the evening, Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will see a decent chance of some showers or thunderstorms, but no severe weather is expected at this point. Temperatures will climb to a high near 26°C with breezy winds out of the south to 30-40 km/h in the morning becoming light for the afternoon.
A narrow band of showers or thunderstorms is possible on Tuesday as a trough of low pressure moves through the region
The clouds will stick around tonight along with a continued slight chance of showers as temperatures dip to a low near 15°C.
Wednesday will bring mainly cloudy skies to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley and slightly cooler temperatures with highs near 23°C and relatively light winds. There will be a continued chance for showers as a weak disturbance hangs back over the region behind Tuesday’s trough. Expect a low near 12°C on Wednesday night with light northerly winds and clearing skies.
Long Range
The remainder of the work week looks pleasant with daytime highs in the mid-20’s and mostly sunny skies. Heading into the weekend, it looks like the heat will return with Saturday potentially hitting 30°C once again, however things may turn stormy as multiple low pressure systems track through the region. We’ll be keeping an eye on things as we get closer to the weekend!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.
The mercury will soar today thanks to the significant upper-level ridge over the region that has brought very warm air into the province. That hot weather will moderate a bit for the weekend, though, as a low pressure system moving through tonight will bring a threat of thunderstorms to the region and push temperatures down closer to seasonal values.
A scorcher is on the way today as temperatures climb above the 30°C mark across much of southern Manitoba. Southerly winds around 30 km/h will help bring up some humidity from the United States, and by the afternoon it may actually begin to feel muggy as well.
The weather will turn later this afternoon over the southwestern corner of the province as a cold front pushes eastwards across the province. Thunderstorms will develop near the Saskatchewan border mid- to late-afternoon and then grow into a line along the cold front as they progress eastwards through the evening.
Thunderstorms are possible across Southern Manitoba today with a risk of severe thunderstorms over the Parkland, southwestern portions of the province, and the western Red River Valley.
The biggest risk for severe weather will be in the afternoon during the early stages of thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will have more energy to work with with temperatures in the 30’s combining with dew point values in the mid-teens providing 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE. Shear will be a bit lacking, at 20-35 kt of 0-500mb bulk shear depending on the position with respect to the cold front.
That said, there’s a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across southwestern Manitoba tomorrow with the primary threat being large hail. Some of these thunderstorms may also produce strong to severe wind gusts.
The energy and dynamics to support these storms will shift as the evening progresses, with the best support slumping into the United States. As the line moves into the Red River Valley, the threat for severe weather diminishes, however thunderstorms will likely continue to roll eastwards through the night.
The expectation for thunderstorms to decrease in severity as they progress eastwards is based on the belief that models are being too aggressive in their advection of elevated dew point values into Southern Manitoba. If higher dew point values pushing into the upper teens do in fact show up in the region, the threat for severe thunderstorms will persist all night, and there would be an increased likelihood of a severe squall line along the cold front. Strong linear forcing could produce bowing segments with severe winds should that outcome occur.
The Weekend
Saturday will bring clearing skies in the morning, and then a few afternoon clouds with a slight chance of another shower or thundershower in the afternoon. The showers will move down from the northwest on the backside of Friday’s low, but as of writing it seems like most guidance suggests the showers will stay to the north and pass through the Interlake. That said, there’s a chance Winnipeg may see a little more rain in the afternoon.
The GFS is an outlier forecasting widespread showers across Southern Manitoba on Saturday afternoon
Aside from that, it will be a pleasant day with a high near 26°C and westerly winds to 20-30 km/h. Temperatures will dip to around 15°C on Saturday night with clearing skies.
Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and a high temperature near 25°C to Winnipeg. Winds will be 15-25 km/h out of the north. All things considered, a great day!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.
The remainder of the work week will feature plenty of sunshine and a stark break from the cooler temperatures of late as daytime highs climb into the mid- to upper-20’s.
The next few days will bring dry, warm conditions to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley courtesy an upper-level ridge building eastwards across the Prairies. This weather feature will keep the clouds away and push daytime highs above-seasonal values as warmer air is drawn northwards out of the United States.
An upper-level ridge will be building into the Prairies today and tomorrow.
As a result, Winnipeg will see sunny skies today and tomorrow with daytime highs near 24 and 27°C respectively. The upper ridge will move east of the Red River Valley on Friday, and a disturbance will begin moving towards the province out of southern Alberta. Friday will still be quite pleasant, however, with partly cloudy skies and a high near 25°C.
The above-normal 500mb heights (red) will result in seasonably warm temperatures for Winnipeg
Winds will be out of the west today at 10-20 km/h, calm on Thursday, and strengthen out of the southeast to 20-30 km/h on Friday afternoon.
Expect overnight lows around 10-12°C the next few nights.
Long Range
At this point, it seems quite likely that a low pressure system will move through late overnight on Friday into early Saturday morning. This system may end up being the first organized nocturnal thunderstorm event of the season, and would likely move into Winnipeg & much of the Red River Valley on Saturday morning. Whether or not there end up being thunderstorms, rain is definitely likely with anywhere from 5-20 mm possible as it moves through.
There’s uncertainty in how quickly this system will clear out, so Saturday may end up remaining fairly cloudy, or we may see sunshine build back into the region in the afternoon. Sunday will likely bring mixed skies to the region again. Both days look to bring highs around 20°C to Winnipeg and lows near 10°C.
After the weekend, Winnipeg should see a couple more dry days before another chance for unsettled conditions mid-week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.
