Category: Forecasts

Warmer, Cloudier Conditions Arrive for the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

After a couple windy and seasonably cool days, temperatures are set to warm slightly towards near-seasonal values. Unfortunately, the sun will end up rather elusive through the weekend as a low pressure system lifting northwards out of Texas pushes towards Manitoba and spreads cloud into the region.

Despite a rather cool start to the morning, temperatures will rebound nicely today as the ridge of high pressure responsible for the cool, windy weather the past few days begins pushing off to the east. With light winds, Winnipeg will warm up to a high near 18 or 19°C under plenty of sunshine for much of the day. By mid- to late-afternoon, cloud cover will begin to push into the region from the south, spread northwards from a low pressure system heading towards Minnesota from Texas.

Winds will remain light on Friday night as temperatures drop to a low near 7°C under mixed to mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday will bring mostly cloudy skies to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley with temperatures climbing to a high near 18°C. Winds will remain light once again, making for a relatively pleasant day despite the lack of sunshine. Temperatures drop back down to around 8°C on Saturday night under cloudy skies.

Milder weather will push back into Manitoba for Friday and Saturday

Sunday will finally bring southern Manitoba under the influence of the low pressure system from Texas as pushes northeastwards through Minnesota. This system has a high chance of bringing some rain to southeastern Manitoba, but further west in the Red River Valley there exists a bit more uncertainty.

The bulk of the precipitation associated with this system will fall in Ontario, however it’s quite likely there will be a band of rain wrapping around the back-side of the low that impacts southeastern Manitoba. The biggest question is how far west that rain will be able to wrap around. The best indications at the moment is that the Whiteshell, Sprague, and areas primarily south of Steinbach and east of the Red River will see some rain, with areas further west in the Red River Valley having just a chance of showers. For the areas that do see rain, amounts should be light, with just around 2-4mm expected.

Some rain is expected to wrap-around a low pressure system into southeastern Manitoba on Sunday


Otherwise, temperatures will rise to a high near 17°C in Winnipeg while winds increase out of the north to 20-30 km/h. The chance for rain will taper off through the afternoon, then Winnipeg will head towards an overnight low of 8°C on Sunday night under mixed to cloudy skies.

Long Range

Much of the same is expected into the first half of next week. Monday will likely continue to bring fairly cloudy conditions with a very slight chance of a shower as temperatures climb to a high in the 15-20°C range. Tuesday into Wednesday should see things settle down with near-seasonal temperatures, but then the pattern may switch to slightly more unsettled, bringing in some chances for precipitation through the latter half of the week into the weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Weather Settles to Breezy & Seasonably Cool

Brad Leave a comment

A ridge of high pressure building into Manitoba will usher in breezy northerly winds for Winnipeg and temperatures sightly below normal for mid-May.

Today will start off with overcast skies as a deck of stratus cloud pushes southwards through the region. The cloudy conditions will be made worse by northerly winds strengthening to 40-50 km/h with gusts to around 60 km/h. Skies will clear out in the afternoon, letting some sunshine through and helping temperatures reach a high near 14°C. Any remaining cloud will clear out tonight as temperatures drop to a low near +2°C with breezy northerly winds of 30-40 km/h.

An area of strong winds will develop over Southern Manitoba & the Northern Plains as air moves out of a high in Saskatchewan into a low heading towards Wisconsin.

Thursday will see the centre of the high pressure system move into southern Manitoba. It will bring sunny skies and cool temperatures with a high near 14°C once again in Winnipeg, but those northerly winds will continue into the afternoon across the Red River Valley at 30 gusting 50 km/h.1 The winds will quickly taper off in the evening as Winnipeg heads to an overnight low near +2°C once again under clear skies.

On Friday, the ridge of high pressure will start departing off to the east, taking the colder air and breezy winds with it. This will allow temperatures to rebound back towards near-seasonal with Winnipeg seeing a daytime high near 18°C. While the day will start of sunny, some cloud cover will build into the region in the afternoon. Friday night will bring mixed to cloudy skies, light winds and a low near 6°C.

Long Range

The weekend is looking fairly pleasant with variable cloudiness and near-seasonal temperatures. There are some indications in the long-range models that the next chance for rain will arrive early next week, but confidence at this point is quite low. Otherwise, the weather will be consistent, if nothing else, over the coming week, with continued near-seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

  1. Southwestern Manitoba will see relief earlier, with winds tapering off to around 15-20 km/h midday Thursday. ↩

Winnipeg Dodged The Weekend Rain, But Another Chance On The Way

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg managed to eke out a fairly pleasant Sunday with a cloudy morning giving way to sunny breaks in the afternoon as temperatures climbed up into the low 20’s. Showers that had the potential to impact the city ended up splitting as they entered the Red River Valley; one area headed to the north and across the Interlake while a second area of showers moved through North Dakota. Another chance for rain is on the way, though, with a low pressure system forecast to move through the region on Tuesday.

Attention now turns towards a developing low pressure system in Wyoming that will organize through the day today, strengthen tonight, and then move through the region on Tuesday.

Today will bring increasing cloud cover, particularly through the afternoon, but otherwise will be a pleasant day with a high near 22°C and relatively light winds. Tonight will bring mixed to cloudy skies with a low near 12°C as the low pressure system builds into North Dakota.

Tuesday’s forecast has a lot of room for error, but we’ll take a stab at broad generalities here. The short version: expect cloudy skies with a very good chance of seeing rain and/or thunderstorms beginning mid- to late-morning and tapering off in the late afternoon or early evening. Winds will pick up out of the north to northwest through the day to around 40 km/h as the low pressure centre moves through the Lake of the Woods region. Temperatures will top out near 15 or 16°C and drop to a low near 7°C on Wednesday night.

Some forecasts hint as much as 25-40*mm* of rain in the Red River Valley on Tuesday.

The long version: everything begins on Monday night as an area of thunderstorms develops across western North Dakota on the northern side of the surface low. These storms should expand in coverage through the night, spreading east-northeastwards along a warm front draped southwest-to-northeast across the state. This area of convective rainfall will spread into southwestern Manitoba late Monday night into Tuesday morning, then spread eastwards into the Red River Valley. At this point, there may be thunderstorms still embedded in the area of rainfall, but that risk will diminish through the morning. The rain will move eastwards through the day, then taper off in the late afternoon. With the convective nature of the rainfall, accumulations may end up being highly variable, but overall it seems like 10-20mm is quite likely, with higher amounts possible on a more localized level.

Now this is all fairly prone to error; primarily, a strong low-level jet is expected to develop across South Dakota along the eastern quadrant of the low, which may end up being a foci for thunderstorm development and rob this system of moisture that would have travelled further northwest or pull this system eastwards slightly faster, possibly causing the rain to pass to the southeast of the Red River Valley.

On Wednesday, the winds will remain gusty out of the north with temperatures climbing to a high, optimistically, near 11°C. Skies will start off fairly cloudy, but gradually break up a bit for the afternoon. Significant clearing will likely hold off until the overnight period as temperatures drop to a low near 2°C.

The remainder of the week looks dry with highs slightly below-seasonal and a fair amount of sunshine.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.

Weather Set To Turn Warmer and Wetter

Brad Leave a comment

A large-scale pattern shift begins today that will bring warmer weather back to the region, but alongside the reprieve from the unseasonably cool temperatures comes a shift towards several days of unsettled weather.

Today will be a quiet day across the Red River Valley with sunny skies and a high near 15°C. Winds will be light as a ridge of high pressure moves across the region. Tonight will also bring fairly clear skies and a low near 4°C.

Warmer air will begin working into the region on Saturday, bringing with it partly cloudy skies as temperatures climb to a high near 19°C. Winds will pick up out of the east to around 30 km/h as a warm front sets up along the US border. Skies will remain partly cloudy overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 9°C with continued easterly winds at 20-30 km/h.

A warm front will lie along the US border on Saturday, with very warm temperatures just across North Dakota.

Sunday will be the turning point for Winnipeg as the first disturbance moves through the region. Winds will continue out of the southeast near 30 km/h until a cold front moves through sometime mid-day into the afternoon. This cold front will support an area of showers or thunderstorms as it moves through the region. As the front moves across southern Manitoba, skies will cloud up as temperatures climb to a high near 20°C.

The GDPS is forecasting a swath of precipitation extending all the way from central Alberta across Saskatchewan and into southern Manitoba Sunday through Sunday night.

Once the front passes, temperatures will cool a bit as the winds taper off. Expect a low near 6°C on Sunday night with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

The forecast through the first half of next week shows several disturbances moving through the region, however exactly where and how much rain falls with them is still very uncertain.

Expect plenty of cloud, particularly into the middle of the week. Temperatures will be mild both Monday and Tuesday, however a brief cool-down will likely happen mid-week with highs dropping into the low teens.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.