Category: Forecasts

Mild Weather Continues, But Sunshine Will Be Scarce

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More mild weather lies ahead for Winnipeg, but unfortunately the sun will be in short supply as plenty of cloud stick around for the next few days.

Today will bring plenty of cloud cover to Winnipeg as a disturbance in the Northern Plains spreads cloud cover eastwards across Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb to a high near 8°C with winds picking up out of the north to around 20 km/h. A chance for light rain will develop for the afternoon and evening as the disturbance slowly moves by. Temperatures will dip to a low near 0°C tonight. Winds will remain out of the north with cloudy skies.

Models depict a small area of rain spreading across southern Manitoba on Friday ngiht.

Saturday will be a bit more pleasant with a high once again near 8°C, but the cloud cover will break up and give Winnipeg more of a mix of sun and cloud. Winds will remain light. On Saturday night the skies will cloud back up as the temperature drops to a low near 5°C.

Sunday will bring cloudy skies back to Winnipeg as a low pressure system tracks across Central Manitoba. Winds will strengthen out of the south to 30-40 km/h ahead of the low with temperatures climbing to a high near 11°C.

GDPS 12hr. QPF valid 00Z Monday April 3, 2017
There looks to be a fairly good chance for showers midday and into the afternoon as a weak cold front pushes through the region. Expect temperatures to drop to a low near +2°C on Sunday night under clearing skies. Winds will diminish and back to westerly.

Long Range


The long-range forecast looks great with nothing but above-normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions for next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.

Mild & Unsettled Weather Ahead

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As advertised earlier in the week, milder weather arrives to the Red River Valley today, however unlike earlier in the week, conditions have trended towards being more unsettled with several chances for rain.

Today will be mild with temperatures climbing to a high near 11°C, but that warmth comes ahead of a disturbance that will bring a chance of showers to the the Red River Valley later today. Winds will be out of the southeast at around 30 km/h, and both the chance of showers and the wind will persist into the evening. Expect a low near 3°C tonight.

The chance for showers will come in two batches, the first very early this morning as overnight development slides through, and the second builds over southwest Manitoba this afternoon and then slides eastwards into the Red River Valley late in the afternoon and into the evening. This second band may persist for a while and feature some moderate rainfall rates, although widespread accumulations will likely remain under the 5-10 mm range.

Much of Manitoba will see showers or light rain from the system moving through.

Thursday will see a similar high to today, but a bit of sunshine should help it feel a bit nicer. Temperatures will reach a high near 11°C as winds taper off in the afternoon. Thursday night will bring increasing cloud as temperatures dip to a low near 4°C.

Friday will be a bit cooler with a high near 8°C under mainly cloudy skies. Winds will gradually increase out of the north to around 20 km/h as a weak ridge of high pressure approaches from the northern Prairies. There looks to be a fairly good chance of some light rain on Friday night as temperatures drop to a low near 2°C.

Long Range

The weekend looks to be a bit of a mixed bag; temperatures will continue mild with highs near the 10°C mark, but skies will bring variable cloudiness and some of Friday night’s light rain may stick around for portions of Saturday morning.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid April 3-7, 2017

Looking further ahead into next week, there’s a very high chance that we’ll continue to see above-normal temperatures in southern Manitoba. No significant precipitation is expected next week either, so we should see a continued, gradual melt across the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

Spring Arrives in the Red River Valley

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There will be no mistaking it this week: spring has arrived!

Temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week as a westerly flow aloft continues to spread mild Pacific air eastwards across the Prairies. With a rapidly eroding snow pack in the Red River Valley, it will also become easier and easier to reach warmer temperatures as the surface albedo decreases.1

It won’t all be sunshine, however. Today’s weather will be driven by a weak mid-level disturbance rolling through. It will bring fairly cloudy conditions through much of the day and a chance of rain or freezing rain in the morning.2 Winds will remain fairly light as temperatures climb to a high near 5 or 6°C. Clouds will remain fairly cloudy tonight as well with temperatures dropping to a low near -2°C.

The RDPS model shows a narrow band of showers over the Red River Valley this morning.

Tuesday will be a bit nicer, with some of the cloud breaking up to give a mix of sun and cloud to Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb to a high near 8 or 9°C with light northeasterly winds. Temperatures will drop to a low near 0°C under mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday night. There will be a slight chance of some rain overnight as a warm front pushes through, but that will depend on whether or not it ends up strong enough to support any showers.

Wednesday will bring some more cloud to the region, but temperatures will climb to a high near 10 or 11°C. Winds will be out of the south near 20 km/h. Skies will break up a bit overnight with temperatures dropping to a low near 2°C.

Long Range

Temperatures will continue to be mild with daytime highs near the 10°C mark throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will be a few chances for some showers throughout the second half of the week and into the weekend, but they seem to mainly be during nighttime. For the most part, it looks like beautiful weather ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

  1. Albedo is a measurement of how much energy a surface reflects instead of absorbs. Snow has a very high albedo—up to 85-90%—which means a majority of energy from the sun is reflected back upwards. Bare ground only reflects around 10-15% of the incoming energy, absorbing the other 85%. This allows temperatures to climb much higher over bare ground compared to snow-covered ground. ↩
  2. What the precipitation falls as will depend precisely on the surface temperature at the time. ↩

Variable Cloudiness with Above-Normal Temperatures

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The weekend will bring a mixed bag to Winnipeg with temperatures climbing into above-seasonal values, but a fair amount of cloud will remain in place over the next few days, dampening the spring-like feeling.

Cooler temperatures will be in place over the Red River Valley today as a result of northerly winds to 20-30 km/h that moved in behind a cold frontal passage overnight. Temperatures are expected to reach high near +2°C in Winnipeg today as those winds diminish by midday. Skies will become a mix in the morning and remain that way through much of the remainder of the day.

Skies should clear up tonight as temperatures drop to a low near -5°C.

Milder temperatures are expected across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Saturday will bring slightly milder temperatures to the region, but alongside the warmth will come breezy southerly winds to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near 4 or 5°C with skies clouding over. Saturday night will bring diminishing winds, cloudy skies and a seasonally mild overnight low near 0°C.

Sunday will be similar temperature-wise to Saturday with a high temperature near 5°C, but a trough of low pressure moving into the Red River Valley will bring lighter winds and the chance for some rain showers. Skies will clear a bit overnight as temperatures head to a low near 0°C once again.

Long Range

As mentioned in our last post, the forecast for a continued trend of gradual warming continues. Little has changed from our outlook earlier in the week, with above-normal temperatures expected in most places over the coming couple weeks.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.