Winnipeg will see calm weather through the first half of the week filled with plenty of sunshine as temperatures return to more seasonal values.
It’s another short and sweet forecast today with little weather in store for Winnipeg over the next couple days.
Today & tomorrow will both be sunny days, however temperatures will remain below normal. Today will see a high near -10°C, and there will be another chilly night ahead with a low near -20°C. Tuesday will be milder, with highs climbing to around the -5°C mark with southerly winds to 15-20 km/h. Expect a low near -12°C on Tuesday night.
Warmer air will be pushing eastwards over the coming few days.
Wednesday will see cloud cover move into the region, creating mixed to cloudy skies, as even milder air pushes eastwards. Highs will climb to around -2°C with strengthening southerly winds to around 30 km/h. Lows will be mild on Wednesday night near the -4 or -5°C mark.
Long Range
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 20-27, 2017
Temperatures will moderate towards seasonal values for the long-range, however in the second half of this week temperatures will likely climb above-normal for a few days before returning to seasonal values for next week.
Precipitation wise, it looks like there will be a chance for some rain or snow this Thursday into Friday, and then the threat for a more potent storm system for the start of next week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.
There’s not too much to say about the upcoming weekend, which is a bit of relief after the relentless storm earlier this week. Below-normal temperatures and sunny skies ahead.
Temperatures over the coming few days will be well below normal due to a rather potent Arctic ridge entrenched over the region. The upside to the colder weather is that we’ll see plenty of sunshine for the next couple days before some cloud, and warmer temperatures, moves in for Sunday.
The Arctic ridge over the Prairies will keep temperatures well below normal across a vast swath of Canada.
So for both today & tomorrow, expect highs near -15 to -13°C, with overnight lows in the -20 to -25°C range. Skies will be sunny today, but more mixed tomorrow as some cloud cover moves in from the west ahead of the next disturbance that will clip across southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.
The bigger change will come on Sunday as the disturbance clips through the region. Skies will be mainly cloudy, although it should be noted that Winnipeg may see a little more sunshine if the system edges just a little bit southwards or more cloud if it tracks a bit further north. Temperatures will also warm up a tad with highs climbing towards the -10°C mark but lows will still be quite cool on Sunday night, bottoming out near -19°C.
Long Range
While a few weak clipper systems are expected to pass over southwestern Manitoba over the coming week, it looks to remain fairly dry here in the Red River Valley. Temperatures will move towards seasonal to above-seasonal mid-week, and with that shift to warmer weather we may see a bit of precipitation, but at this point it’s simply too early to tell.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.
Residents of southern Manitoba can breathe a sigh of relief as conditions begin to improve as the major winter storm that has been hammering the province begins to move off into the Arctic.
Today will bring relief to southern Manitoba as the strong westerly to northwesterly winds in place over the region begin to subside. These winds have created havoc over southwestern Manitoba where some of the worst blizzard conditions in recent memory developed on Monday and persisted throughout the day and into the night on Tuesday. Brandon saw blizzard conditions begin around 5PM on Monday evening and persist all through Tuesday. Numerous motorists had to be rescued from area highways, despite significant notice of extremely poor conditions being given in advance of this storm by Environment Canada.1
This winter storm was driven by a powerful low pressure system that stretched all the way from Western Saskatchewan to Labrador on Tuesday evening.
Winds will subside through the day from around 50 gusting 70 km/h this morning to 30 gusting 50 km/h around midday as the low pushes off to the northeast, allowing the pressure gradient to begin to slacken over the southern portion of the province. While the winds will still be a bit gusty, they should be low enough for visibilities to improve. Temperatures will be cool, however, with a high temperature of just -10°C. Skies will start the day cloudy but break up to more of a mix in the morning.
Skies will be partly cloudy tonight as temperatures drop to a chilly -20°C.
A ridge of high pressure will push into Manitoba from the northwest, ushering colder temperatures into the province.
Thursday will see much colder air pushing into the province as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will struggle to recover much through the day with highs expected to climb only to around the -17°C mark. This is nearly 15°C below normal for this time of year. Winds will be out of the northwest at around 20-30 km/h under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will drop even further below normal on Thursday night with lows dipping down to around -27°C under clear skies with light winds.
Friday will be a cool and sunny day with little wind. Highs will be around -17 or -16°C with a low on Friday night near -21°C.
Long Range
The below-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and into the beginning of next week, although there will be a gradual climb towards near-seasonal conditions. No significant snowfall is expected for Winnipeg the next 7 days.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.
Environment Canada issued several special weather statements regarding the storm as well as blizzard warnings well in advance of the storm’s onset. ↩
A winter storm rapidly developing over North Dakota will spread snow, freezing rain and showers into Manitoba today, along with increasingly strong northwesterly winds. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly this morning over western Manitoba, while the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba see conditions deteriorate later this afternoon when temperatures begin to drop and any showers change over to snow.
Winnipeg Forecast
Warm air will be reinforced over the Red River Valley ahead of this low pressure system as east to southeasterly winds increase to around 30 gusting 50 km/h develop, keeping temperatures mild with highs near 3°C today. An area of showers will develop as the main low centre lifts into the province out of North Dakota a bit later in the morning, spreading northwards through the afternoon. Rainfall totals throughout the Red River Valley will be variable thanks to the showery nature of the rain, but in general between 2-10mm seems most likely. If some more intense showers develop, there may be a chance for isolated accumulations of 10-20 mm.
Winds will taper off late this afternoon into the early evening as the centre of the low passes through the region. As it moves off to the northeast, winds will then abruptly strengthen out of the west to northwest at 40-50 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h. Temperatures will quickly drop below zero as some wrap-around snow moves into the Red River Valley.
While some earlier forecasts were showing significant snowfall in the Red River Valley, it looks like the bulk of the snow with this storm will fall over western and northern Manitoba. Here in the valley, the best current indications are that we’ll see a couple centimetres of snow. There are a few outlier models that suggest a secondary shortwave could produce heavy snow over the region in the second half of the night, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in that. I’ll be providing updates via our Facebook and Twitter pages tomorrow night.
RDPS Snowfall Forecast valid Monday Night (00-12Z Tuesday March 7, 2016)
GFS Snowfall Forecast valid Monday Night (00-12Z Tuesday March 7, 2016)
NAM Snowfall Forecast valid Monday Night (00-12Z Tuesday March 7, 2016)
The strong winds will persist all night, which when combined with a couple centimetres of new snow may be enough to create local areas of poor visibilities in blowing snow. Temperatures will drop to a low near -10°C.
Tuesday will bring more periods of snow to the Red River Valley with continuing strong winds out of the west. Temperatures will remain steady near around -11 or -12°C. Temperatures will drop to around -16°C on Tuesday night with more strong winds. Any remaining light snow should taper off overnight.
Wednesday will bring an end to the influence of this storm system. The clouds should break up a bit as the winds taper off through the day. Temperatures will remain cool with a high near -10°C. Expect some more clear breaks overnight as an Arctic ridge pushes into the region. Temperatures will fall well below normal with a low near -19°C.
The Big Picture
Rainfall
Rainfall will be the primary story for much of southern Manitoba today as an area of showers develops ahead of a warm front lifting northwards from the United States.
Areas in Manitoba that will see rainfall today.
The biggest unknown is exactly how much rain will fall, which will depend on how intense the area of showers can manage to develop. At the moment it looks like most areas will see 2-5 mm, however there is the potential for higher widespread amounts of 10-15 mm further north in the Interlake. Should any potent convective cells develop, which may happen anywhere in the rain area today, they may be capable of producing isolated accumulations of 10-20 mm.
The rain will move out of the province this evening, replaced by snow.
Freezing Rain
The risk of freezing rain will appear today through western Manitoba into the Interlake.
Freezing rain is possible over western Manitoba & the Interlake today and into tonight.
The threat for freezing rain will move into western Manitoba this morning and persist until midday. Accumulating freezing rain is possible, with the risk for several mm of ice accumulation. This threat will then lift into the Interlake for the afternoon and onwards into northern Manitoba tonight.
Snowfall
The major impact from this storm will the snowfall and associated winds.
A major snowfall event will occur over eastern Saskatchewan, western Manitoba and northern Manitboa with this winter storm.
The snow is already falling across eastern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba and will spread eastwards into western Manitoba for the afternoon. Snowfall amounts will be major, with upwards of 40-50 cm expected to fall through the heaviest band in Northern Manitoba. Further south, a north-south swath of 10-30 cm will pile up by Tuesday morning. There will be a relatively sharp cut-off from the heavy snow to just minor accumulations on both the eastern/southeastern and western flanks.
This heavy snow will combine with strong northwest to westerly winds to produce an extended period of blizzard conditions, likely lasting over 24 hours. If you are in the areas that will see heavy snow move in today, it will be best to avoid all travel until conditions improve.
Long Range
Once everything finally calms down on Wednesday, we’ll move into an extended period of below-normal temperatures with daytime highs falling to the mid-minus teens and lows falling below -20°C. No precipitation is expected in the second half of the week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -14°C.
