Category: Forecasts

Blast of Pacific Warmth On The Way

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After a couple days of below-normal temperatures, significantly warmer weather is on the way as a wave of warmth surges eastwards across the Prairies. The transition may be a little uncomfortable, but a mild weekend lays ahead.

Today will begin the transition to warmer weather in the Red River Valley. That means that while we see the hope of warmer temperatures, we’re buffeted by the reality of harsh southerly winds in the still-present cold.

Those south to southeasterly winds will pick up this morning and strengthen to around 30 km/h. Today won’t have a “high temperature” so much as a “climbing temperature.” By this evening, the temperature will have climbed to -7 or -6°C and then will continue to rise overnight to near -5°C by Saturday morning. The winds will remain breezy out of the south to southeast overnight. Skies will cloud over as the day progresses.

The RDPS shows temperatures climbing to around -7°C this afternoon.

Saturday will see very mild temperatures move into the region as highs climb to about +3°C. However, the winds will strengthen in the morning and then continue through much of the day, sustained near 40 km/h with gusts on top of that. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, but the odd glimpse of sunshine is possible. Winds will diminish fairly quickly in the evening as temperatures fall to a low near -3°C under mixed to mostly cloudy skies.

Strong southerly winds will be in place over the Red River Valley on Saturday

Sunday will bring mixed to mainly cloudy skies and much lighter winds to the region. With temperatures still climbing to +1 or +2°C, it will be probably the most pleasant day of the next 3. There may be a small chance of some light snow or rain, but indications are that the band will remain light and likely pass northwest of the Red River Valley. Temperatures will then drop to around 0°C on Sunday night with the cloud cover thickening up.

Long Range

The beginning of next week poses a bit of a challenge as a pair of low pressure systems begin developing over Montana and Colorado, then progress to merge into a potent low pressure system over Nebraska that then lifts north-northeast towards Lake of the Woods.

This system will begin developing on Sunday, with the northern flank of precipitation spreading across southern Saskatchewan and into western Manitoba. A second wave of precipitation is forecast to develop on Sunday night, potentially spreading across SW Manitoba and into the Red River Valley by Monday morning.

Then, as the system intensifies on Monday, the northern flank is to collapse somewhat as all of the energy focuses around the surface low, spreading fairly intense precipitation northwards through the Dakotas and Minnesota into south-central and southeastern Manitoba.

The GDPS is showing up to 6-8″ of snow in Winnipeg next Monday/Tuesday, but that’s probably not worth much at this point.

There are a lot of uncertainties associated with this system as of Friday morning. Whenever these deep, potent Colorado Low systems develop with a precursor low further north, there end up being numerous interactions between the two systems that complicate their energy distribution. While the overall solution is believable1, the details matter and are fairly fuzzy at this point. This system will be a combination of rain and snow and have a sharp western/northwestern edge, so a shift of even 50km may mean the difference between snow or nothing, or between some rain or 10 inches of snow.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on this system, and may issues our Monday forecast on Sunday evening if it looks like the system is going to be of significant impact early in the day on Monday. Enjoy the mild temperatures until then, hopefully the wind isn’t too uncomfortable!

  1. It’s favoured for the southern low to overtake the northern low as it receives more energy from the upper-level jet circulation to its southeast. ↩

Cold Front Brings Late-Season Chill

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A weak cold front passing through the region this morning will bring cooler weather to the Red River Valley for the second half of the work week, but it will be short lived as a widespread push of milder air develops through the weekend.

Today will bring near-seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg alongside some light snow as a cold front sweeps through this morning. Winds will pick up slightly out of the north behind the front as cooler air begins pushing southwards into the Red River Valley. Despite this, the high temperature should reach around -8°C; the bulk of the cold air will move in tonight as temperatures are set to slump to slightly below-normal -18°C.

This cold air will be in place through Thursday as temperatures struggle to climb to a high near just -13°C, which is well below-normal for this time of year. We should see a fair amount of sun, though, so as long as you haven’t put away your mitts and toque, it will be a relatively nice day. Temperatures will dip down to around -18°C again on Thursday night under partly cloudy skies.

A series of impulses moving in from the Pacific will spread warmer air into the eastern Prairies.

Friday will bring the big swing as the first of several Pacific-sourced systems tracks across the central Prairies. Warmer air will surge eastwards towards Manitoba, producing gusty southerly winds as is typical with transition days from colder to warmer weather in the Red River Valley. They’ll probably strengthen to around 40 km/h with gusts up to 60 km/h, and persist into Saturday morning before tapering off Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will climb, though, eventually reaching a high temperature near -5°C. Along with the warmer weather will come more cloud, with skies clouding over by midday. While any accumulating snow is unlikely, there may be some light snow in the afternoon as the warm front pushes across the Red River Valley.

Skies should mix out a bit on Friday night as temperatures continue near -5°C or even rise slightly towards -3 or -2°C by Saturday morning.

Long Range

Mild weather will remain over southern Manitoba for the weekend, with daytime highs continuing to be above seasonal. By Sunday, the chance for snow will increase as a more significant low pressure system develops across the Northern Plains.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Cool Weekend Ahead; Light Snow Possible Saturday

Brad 1 Comment

The weather will be relatively quiet over the coming few days with slightly below-seasonal temperatures in place. The only real weather to note will come on Saturday as a weak low pressure system tracks along the US-Canada border and brings the chance for some light snow to the region.

Today will bring a daytime high near -8°C with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Expect a low near -13°C tonight with increasing cloud.

Saturday will be a mostly cloudy day as a low pressure system skims along international border. Temperatures will top out around -6 or -7°C in the Red River Valley with a decent chance of some light snow in the region, particularly through the afternoon. Minor accumulations may occur, but only really enough to make roads a bit slick again. Winds will continue to be fairly light. Temperatures will dip down to around -14°C on Saturday night with clear breaks developing.

The 00Z run fo the RDPS shows the potential for 1-3cm of snow on Friday across southwest and south-central Manitoba.

Sunday will be be a return to quiet weather with a high near -6°C, light winds and mixed skies. Lows will drop to around -12°C on Sunday night with mixed skies continuing.

Ultimately, there’s a slack pressure pattern for the coming few days and with the storm track well to our south. This will result in a few days that are mostly slight variations of each other.

Long Range

Temperatures are expected to return to seasonal values for much of next week. At this point, it appears that there are no threats for any notable snowfall events until late next week, so fairly quiet weather ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.

Cooler Temperatures Settle Back Into Southern Manitoba

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Cooler temperatures are moving back into the region today behind a cold front that passed through overnight. This cooler weather will persist for several days as an upper-level trough builds over the Prairies, driving the jet stream southwards.

Winter will gradually slump back into Winnipeg as cooler weather slowly pushes southwards through the Prairies, although temperatures will be moderated by an extensive area of low-level clouds that will likely take their time in breaking up.

Today will be the warmest day of the next few with temperatures topping out near 0°C, although a northerly wind at around 20 km/h will be tapping into cooler air to the north. Skies will remain cloudy, though, and a few remaining morning flurries will exit the region early, leaving behind a slight chance for some freezing drizzle. The chance for freezing drizzle will continue overnight as temperatures drop to a low near -8°C.

A cooler air mass will slump southwards over the next few days.

Thursday will continue with fairly cloudy skies; there’s some uncertainty as to how much clearing will manage to occur through the day but in general, expect skies on the cloudier side through the day. Temperatures will climb to a high near -4°C with light northerly winds continuing. Skies may clear a bit in the afternoon, but I’m leaning towards cloudier conditions. We’ll have to see how/if the low cloud begins breaking up over the northern Prairies today as to how much clearing we may see on Thursday. Temperatures will drop to around -11°C on Thursday night with mixed skies.

Friday will bring partly cloudy skies, relatively light winds and a high near -7°C. Not much to say about it! Expect a low near -16°C on Friday night with partly cloudy skies.1

Long Range

Temperatures will continue at near-seasonal values with not too much in the way of snow. Some guidance hints at a system that would bring 2-5 cm of snow to the region on Sunday, but there’s still disagreement on that. After that, it appears that there may be another chance for snow mid-week next week. All in all, though, fairly quiet weather ahead!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.

  1. While -16°C is our best bet at the moment, guidance suggests a low somewhere between -14 and -20°C. ↩