Category: Forecasts

Cloudy & Mild Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

There’s no end to the mild weather in sight thanks to a stagnant weather pattern that will persist through the remainder of the week. For those that love the sun, it will be a hard week as cloudy conditions persist with a continued chance of light flurry or freezing drizzle activity.

This weekend was a notable one when it came to warmth in Winnipeg as temperatures remained above 0°C for a record-breaking 66 hours, breaking the old record of 44 hours set on January 8/9, 2002. Temperatures first climbed above 0°C at 3PM on Friday January 20th and remained there all the way through 11PM on January 22.

Temperatures hovered between 0 and +2°C in Winnipeg for 66 hours between January 20th and 22nd, 2017.

This record mild spell broke no record high temperatures, but did result in a couple of rainfalls that brought January 2017 to the 2nd rainiest on record with 3.6 mm so far. The rainiest January on record is 1944 when 3.7 mm fell.

So, all that said, the forecast for the next few days is simple.

Cloudy. Today and tomorrow will both bring a continued chance for some light flurry or freezing drizzle activity across the Red River Valley with temperatures topping out near -1°C and light winds. Lows will be near -5°C both tonight and tomorrow night.

Flurries are expected across southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

The area of low pressure that’s entrenched over the region will begin moving out on Tuesday night, allowing some more organized northwesterly winds to develop across the Red River Valley. Winds will strengthen to 20-30 km/h by Wednesday morning and continue throughout the remainder of the day. Temperatures will be cooler with that northwest flow; highs will top out around -3°C and flurries will be widespread across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip to a low near -8°C under more cloudy skies on Wednesday night.

Long Range

Relatively mild temperatures will continue through the second half of the week with daytime highs hovering near -5°C. Sun may begin poking out on Thursday, but at this point it looks like Friday will be the first day of the week the sun makes a full comeback. No significant precipitation is expected in the second half of the week.

Mild, Sloppy Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see a mild weekend with temperatures continuing well above-normal, but a developing trough of low pressure will bring unsettled weather to the region.

Today will mark the beginning of a soggy weekend as temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark persist over the next several days.

Temperature-wise, expect temperatures to be within a degree of +1°C all the way until Monday morning, when it will dip just below the freezing mark. Alongside those mild temperatures will be overcast skies through the entire weekend.

We’ll an almost-continuous chance of precipitation of some sort. Today will bring dissipating fog patches this morning and a chance of drizzle through much of the rest of the day. A impulse heading northwest out of Minnesota will move across the region this evening, bringing an area of rain showers through the Red River Valley with amounts of 2-5 mm expected. After it passes tonight, fog patches will likely redevelop. Saturday will see a chance of showers or drizzle throughout the day and night.

An area of rain and snow will move through the province tonight, starting near Sprague and heading northwest towards Flin Flon.

That chance for light precipitation will continue through Sunday, but slightly cooler temperatures moving in mean that some flurries may mix into things.

Long Range

Not much will change through the first half of next week; cloudy conditions with temperatures near the freezing mark will continue with chances for light precipitation continuing.

Warm Weather Arrives for Remainder of Work Week

Brad Leave a comment

The promised warmer weather will move in for the second half of the work week, sending temperatures over 10°C above seasonal daytime highs.

Temperatures will be very mild over the coming 3 days as westerly winds continue to advect a Pacific-sourced air mass eastwards across the Prairies. Daytime highs over the next few days will hover around the 0 to +2°C mark with overnight lows between -4 and -1°C.

Winds will be fairly light over the coming few days as well, with winds generally out of the south at 10-20 km/h persisting right through Friday.

Above normal temperatures will be in place over the Prairies through the second half of the week.

Skies will be variably cloudy; today we expect partly cloudy skies this morning transitioning to periods of mixed to cloudy skies this afternoon and evening. Things should clear out a bit on Thursday morning with partly cloudy skies returning for the afternoon and then thicker cloud cover moving in on Thursday night for Friday.

All in all, a very nice second half to the work week on the way.

Long Range

Things will begin to change on the weekend, though, as a rather complex transition occurs and brings more unsettled weather to our region.

A complex upper-level wind pattern will develop over the region this weekend.

A potent upper-level jet is digging a trough off the western coast of the United States while at the same time an upper-level low meanders northeastwards from New Mexico into the Central Plains of the United States. Over the coming days, the digging upper-level trough over the west coast will tilt eastwards and absorb the upper-level low, merging into a rather large vortex that will then push several plumes of moisture northwards across Southern Manitoba.

It can’t be understated how complex the evolution expected to happen this weekend is. Details about precipitation will almost certainly change between now and then. That said, a few generalities…

The weekend will be fairly mild with temperatures hovering at or above the freezing mark, with overnight lows within a degree or two of the daytime highs. It will be cloudy throughout, with a chance of snow or rain on both Saturday and Sunday. This could be very light, or a more significant storm depending on how things set up.

With a large area of lift moving in over the region, there will also be a chance for fog and drizzle through the weekend, but whether or not it forms will depend exactly on how this weather system sets up.

So, in short: a nice end to the work week will be followed by a mild but messy weekend. We’ll have more details on exactly what to expect in our next forecast on Friday.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.

Temperatures Soar For The Week Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Very mild temperatures will spread into Southern Manitoba this week sending daytime highs soaring to over 10°C above normal for mid-January.

The week will start with one more day with seasonal temperatures in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as mainly sunny skies combine with light winds as temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. Temperatures will dip to around -11°C tonight as winds begin to pick up from the south in advance of an incoming warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the arrival of warmer weather to the region as a warm front sweeps eastwards across the province. Tuesday will see winds increasing out of the south to around 30-40 km/h while temperatures climb to a high near -3°C late in the day. The winds will diminish in the evening and temperatures will dip to a low near -5 or -6°C. On Wednesday, the warm air will push even further east, sending daytime highs to the 0°C mark in the Red River Valley with fairly light winds. Expect temperatures to dip down to around -2 or -3°C on Wednesday night.

The forecast 850mb temperatures show clearly the push of mild air across the Prairies through mid-week.

Both Tuesday and Wednesday have some uncertainty as to how much cloud will move in. At best, we could expect mixed skies, however I think it will lean towards the cloudier side than the sunnier side. Having fairly cloudy conditions as we warm up to the freezing mark in January would not exactly be uncommon for this area.

Long Range

The second half of the week will continue to bring mild temperatures with daytime highs near the freezing mark and variable cloudiness. Heading into the weekend, it begins to appear that the weather will begin to get a bit busier as the storm track shifts towards our region. It looks like, at this point, Saturday may bring a chance of rain or freezing rain, but amounts would be fairly light. The remainder of the weekend looks cloudy and mild.

Heading into the start of next week, models are beginning to converge on the development of another Colorado Low that would impact our region. It’s still very early, so as usual plenty can change between now and then, but at the moment it appears that this system could bring snow into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley sometime Monday and persist through Tuesday. Forecast storm total amounts are generally in the 10-20 cm right now. We’ll be keeping an eye on this system as we get closer and things begin to shape up more.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.