Category: Forecasts

Light Snow Starts Off A Cool Weekend

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Below-normal temperatures will remain entrenched across Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as another weak disturbance brings some light snow and a reinforcing shot of Arctic air.

A weak disturbance moving across Southern Manitoba today will bring plenty of cloud and another batch of light snow to the region. While there will be a chance for some light snow throughout the day, it’s most likely to be seen through the afternoon and early evening. Fortunately it won’t amount to much with nothing more than a skiff expected. Temperatures will climb to a high near -19°C today, and then drop to a low near -27°C tonight as skies clear behind this system.

Much of central and southern Manitoba will see some light snow today.

Saturday will bring fairly sunny skies and a high near -18°C. Winds will be relatively light, so it may actually be a nice day to be outside, despite the cool temperatures. Milder air will begin moving on on Saturday night ahead of a system that will impact the region on Sunday, so overnight lows won’t be quite as chilly as the past several. For Winnipeg, we’re expecting the temperature to drop to around -25°C.

Sunday brings more cloud and some light snow to the region once again as a weak disturbance rolls through. Temperatures will be milder with a high near -16°C and fairly light winds. Skies will clear on Sunday evening followed by plummeting temperatures with overnight lows likely falling into the -27 to -30°C range.

Long Range

Next week continues cold with temperatures mostly below the -20°C mark. Tuesday and Wednesday may be slightly warmer with highs in the mid-minus teens, but those warmer temperatures have the potential to bring some more now and the wind will be a bit more prominent, which may make it feel cooler than it does this weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.

Arctic Chill Settles Over Prairies

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Daytime highs will fall well below-normal for the remainder of the week as a shot of cold Arctic air slumps southwards over the Prairies behind yesterday’s potent low pressure system that brought another blast of snow and blowing snow to the region.

Temperatures will struggle to recover today as Southern Manitoba sees a cooler air mass building in. After a chilly start with temperatures near –28°C, conditions will warm to a high near just –22°C under mixed skies and a light wind. Temperatures will drop back to around –28°C once again tonight under mixed skies.

Forecast 850mb temperatures; the first of two cold shots will push over Manitoba today and tomorrow. The second arrives this weekend.

Thursday will bring mixed skies once again as a weak disturbance moves through the region. Expect daytime highs across the Red River Valley to be similar to Wednesday at around –22°C. Lows will dip to the –28 or –29°C mark on Thursday night with mixed to cloudy skies.

Friday will bring slightly warmer weather with high temperatures near the –19°C mark under mixed skies. Warmer air will continue working in on Friday night, bringing with it cloud cover that will help keep the overnight lows slightly milder at around –24°C.

Long Range

The weekend looks slightly warmer with light winds continuing. Of note, Saturday looks like it will see highs near the –19°C mark, but with sunny skies! The combination of light wind and sun may make it a [relatively] pleasant day despite the cold, all things considered. More cloud moves in Sunday with highs slightly warmer than Saturday.

A fair chance of below-normal temperatures continues for the next 6-10 days across Southern Manitoba.

Next week looks like it will start off significantly milder with high temperatures potentially climbing up to around the –15 to -12°C mark on Monday, but the threat for more snow returns with those warmer temperatures which would then be followed by a plunge back into the Arctic air.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.

More Snow as Colorado Low Grazes Manitoba

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More snow is on the way for Southern Manitoba as a Colorado Low grazes the region as it moves through the Dakotas and Minnesota. After the passage of that system, the upper-level pattern will shift and bitterly cold Arctic air will spill southeastward across the Prairies.

Snow will build into Southern Manitoba through the day today from the southwest, with a few isolated flurries in the morning intensifying into more persistent snow through the afternoon. By 6PM, most areas along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway will be seeing snow. The snow will persist through much of the night before tapering off on Tuesday morning.

NAM-based accumulated snowfall for the next storm based on a 10:1 snow ratio.

The NAM model pictured above has been consistently producing a total of between 6-8 cm at a 10:1 snowfall ratio (SLR), however it appears likely that the SLR will be higher at around 14:1, which would push storm-total snowfall ranges in the Red River Valley from around 8-12 cm in Winnipeg to 10-20 cm near the US border. Amounts States-side will be higher, with nearly 25cm of snow expected through east-central North Dakota into Minnesota.

Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the -9 to -11°C range today and temperatures dropping to -18°C by Tuesday morning.

Winds will be breezy through the day today out of the northeast at around 20-30 km/h. As Winnipeg & the Red River Valley move onto the back-side of this system tonight, winds will strengthen out of the north to northwest to around 40 km/h. These gusty winds will combine with the fresh snowfall to produce blowing snow on area highways with locally poor visibilities. The winds will begin to ease through the early afternoon, bringing an end to the blowing snow.

Cooler Weather For The Remainder Of The Week

Temperatures will be much cooler on Tuesday with little movement from the overnight low near -18°C as colder air moves into the region from the northwest. Even colder conditions will move in on Tuesday night with overnight lows expected to drop to around the -27°C mark. Wednesday will see Winnipeg & the Red River Valley entrenched in the Arctic air with highs near the -22°C mark and an overnight low dipping back down to around the -27°C mark.

The upcoming cold snap can be seen in this forecast for the second half of the week showing the cold air aloft building into Southern Manitoba.

Skies on Tuesday will remain fairly cloudy until the late afternoon when things begin to break up. It doesn’t appear that this cold snap will be associated with particularly sunny skies, though. The main ridge axis will pass well to our west, making it more difficult for all of the cloud to clear from Southern Manitoba. The Red River Valley will mainly see mixed to cloudy skies through much of the week.

Long Range

Little pattern change is expected in the next 7-10 days.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid January 9-16, 2016

As this NAEFS outlook shows, below-normal temperatures will likely remain in place for the next 1-2 weeks. Temperatures may moderate next week to be closer, but still below, seasonal values. Conditions look fairly dry with little snow expected; the next potential for some snow may be with a clipper system early next week.

So after this snowfall, Winnipeg & region will be falling into a relatively quiet and cold pattern, holding strong for at least the next 7-10 days.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.

Alberta Clipper Plunges Manitoba into the Deep Freeze

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An Alberta Clipper crossing the province today will bring another accumulating snowfall to the region and then usher in a major pattern change that will plunge Central Canada into a deep freeze.

Snow is on tap today for all of the Red River Valley courtesy an Alberta Clipper moving through the region. Snow will spread eastwards through the morning, moving into the Red River Valley between 9AM and 12PM. Snow will persist until the early evening before tapering off.

A large area of 5-10cm of snow is expected today, with a narrow swath likely receiving just over 10cm.

By the time all is said and done most areas along the swath of snowfall will see between 5-10 cm of new snow, however a swath running from Brandon east-southeast through the southern Red River Valley will likely see slightly over 10 cm.

This snowfall comes hot on the heels of a major winter storm that dumped 18-33 cm of snow in Winnipeg on Monday.

Aside from the snow, today will be a little warmer than normal with a high near -10°C. Particularly in the morning, a southeasterly wind of 15-25 km/h will make it feel rather chilly. Winds will ease through the afternoon as they back to north-northwesterly by late this evening. Skies will remain mixed to cloudy overnight with lows dropping to around the -18°C mark.

Saturday will bring mixed to cloudy skies in the morning, with thicker cloud cover and a chance of flurries moving into the region in the afternoon as another low pressure system slumps down from the northwest. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably mild with highs near the -8°C mark. With the new system cloud moving in for the afternoon, a chance of flurries will return to the region. No significant accumulations are expected with this system, but there may end up being enough to get a slight layer on your windshield. The cloud and chance of flurries will continue overnight as temperatures drop to a mild -12°C.

Sunday will start off with cloud and a chance of flurries, but that will clear out through midday as a very broad cold front pushes southwards. Highs will recover a couple degrees from the overnight low to around -10°C, but temperatures will begin dropping sharply when the cloud clears out in the afternoon and colder air begins working in from the north. Lows are expected to drop to around -22°C on Sunday night under clear to partly cloudy skies.

Prairies Fall Into An Arctic Grip

The big story for next week will be the dramatic pattern shift which plunges bitterly cold air southwards across the Prairies and produces daytime highs 5-10°C below normal for this time of year.

Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid January 4-9, 2016

Daytime highs are expected to fall through the first half of the week from the mid-minus teens towards the -22 to -24°C range for the second half of the week. Overnight lows are a bit of a trickier challenge as there’s not a lot of certainty as to how much clearing we’ll see, and overnight cloud cover can dramatically impact how cold it gets. There is very high confidence in this cold snap as shown in the above CPC1 graphic, which has a ≥90% chance for below-normal temperatures across much of the western United States (and by extension, the southern Canadian Prairies). This is the largest extent of 90% probability of below-normal temperatures in the 15-year history of this outlook.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid January 6-13, 2017

The cold weather is expected to persist into the following week as well, but may begin abating in the 10-14 day range.

  1. Climate Prediction Center ↩